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NNE Thread


mreaves

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My loss is your gain but I'm glad you're getting dumped on, Toot. Been a tough couple of years in the county.

My sentiments exactly - some well-deserved catchup time. However, I also find it ironic that, after seeing storm after storm in which the good bands remained just south of MBY, things then jump to my north (where they were in the early Dec retro event), skipping over the foothills again.

23" on the ground as of yesterday. Decent winter, but nothing special.

Despite the above whining, I'm about 8" above my 12-yr avg for this date, and my 22" OG is 2.5" above my avg for 2/14. However, my average for winter's deepest depth is 29.6" and the median is 26", so winter needs to come back for me to reach either of those. And we still need something above my 8.9" biggest-of-winter to approach my averages for that statistic: avg biggie is 15.3" and median is 14.15".

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Current weather at Mansfield/Stowe...

1,500ft...38F...-RN/SN

3,600ft...30F...-SN

We are getting a mix of rain and snow now in the base area... started as snow thanks to wet bulb cooling, then went to rain/snow mix. Interesting that it was snowing at 40F, but rain/snow mix at 38F once the evaporative cooling stopped.

Pure snow level is at roughly 1,800ft... so its very close to the base here.

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Sun popped out about 2 PM here in AUG and the temp went up to 43. Check on Wunderground showed MBY area still in the 30s; looked like they might have had some flurries earlier and another batch moving in, probably a bump ahead of the CF.

12z gfs was depressing, though great for Vim Toot, with another 10-15" for Sat were it to verify, and the nice MW/GL storm early next week dies as it moves east - at least it's not (yet) a torch-deluge. Nothing particularly interesting for MBY before day 9, and three days from now it will probably still show up on day 9, if at all.

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Melting is very strong... waterfalls off decks and roofs. I just spent 45 minutes on the 15"~ on my back deck that is very small. VERY heavy. I was starting to worry about the deck. There is about a 3" layer of straight ice at the bottom! Used rock slt on it.

Its going to get stronger at home for you on Thurs and Fri as well

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Still a SWFE signal for CNE/NNE sometime early next week on the 12z EC. This run it's Mon night/Tue morning. Verbatim it's 0.50"-0.75" all snow, but it's still a week away. Hopefully we can pull something out of the hat.

Don't think for one minute i have not been following this overunning pattern that looks to develop up here......... :popcorn:

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We are still raining down at 800ft in Stowe village at 36F.... very windy, too.

Base area of the ski resort (1,500ft) was 34F and finally 100% snow when I left at 4pm. I'd assume we are going to switch over soon as I've seen the snow level lowering for the past hour as the nearby hills disappear into a curtain of white (and its not fog). Snow level can't be more than 300ft above my head right now based on views of neighboring hills (probably just above 1,000ft).

Given that its snowing at the mountain now, the radar is looking pretty solid all the sudden with NW flow enhancement... so hopefully we can pick up a couple inches tonight. I bet we switch over to snow as the temp plummets here shortly in town... flash freeze with an inch or so of snow is my guess.

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Decent chance of northern lights tonight if it clears out.

CME from that big M6.6 flare the other day is here. Solar windspeed and density is rather meh, but if the Bz swings back south, we should get a minor, maybe moderate show.

There was also a M2 flare today... no idea if it spewed a nice CME yet but given the position of the sunspot, it probably did.

Mag_swe_24h.gif

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skied to 3300' this afternoon, surprisingly good, definitely a gor-tex testing kind of snow. over 2800' though it was powdery and blowin, the evergreens were shedding giant piles, almost hazardous to your safety. raining at 1500' and now back to snow here at the house, looks like upper elevations escaped a death crust.

thought of you PF, the trailhead register box has snow up to the base of it with drifting on the NW side above the top, easy 50+ inches of snow, I took a pic but will likely need the better part of this year to figure out to get it on here, hahaha

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Still a SWFE signal for CNE/NNE sometime early next week on the 12z EC. This run it's Mon night/Tue morning. Verbatim it's 0.50"-0.75" all snow, but it's still a week away. Hopefully we can pull something out of the hat.

I don't think that is pulling something out of the hat. Just looks like a normal 4-8 inch snowfall for us in mid Feb. And the pattern supports it no? It does seem a bit desperate not having had a good snow for 2 weeks....but we had that experience after Boxing day until Jan 11.

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I don't think that is pulling something out of the hat. Just looks like a normal 4-8 inch snowfall for us in mid Feb. And the pattern supports it no? It does seem a bit desperate not having had a good snow for 2 weeks....but we had that experience after Boxing day until Jan 11.

There has been a consistent signal (pattern and modeling), but the timing has been significantly jumping around. At that time frame nothing is a given...especially the details. Forget 4-8"...I'd take 3-5" and run at this point.
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There has been a consistent signal (pattern and modeling), but the timing has been significantly jumping around. At that time frame nothing is a given...especially the details. Forget 4-8"...I'd take 3-5" and run at this point.

This could be a great pattern for you folks. I'm a little nervous down my way because the raging -PNA scares me, and we'll need some help with the -NAO, but I think you folks near and north of CON-PWM could really cash in.

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