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NNE Thread


mreaves

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CON is over to -FZRA, but I'm transitioning back over to a 50/50 S/IP mix.

I think we may even sleet for a time here this evening... its going to be very close. At the very least, snow growth will be no better than 10:1 and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 9:1 ratio from this.

Incredible temperature swing here today, much like Plymouth, NH saw yesterday... below zero to above freezing in 6 hours. The ASOS at MVL had a 6-hour high of 35F and a 6-hour low of -4F earlier today, 39F change in 6 hours. We torched here to 36F here in Stowe and I even saw 37F at the base of the ski area at 1,500ft at one point and that ends our sub-freezing stretch since early Jan.

Ceilings are lowering quickly here... the mountain just disappeared from view so visibility is lowering around us, but no flakes yet. EDIT: Nevermind, steady snow just moved in very quickly.

It looks like we have quite a bit of fun between 7pm and 1am. If the new NAM run is correct we should be snowing pretty hard for a time later this evening. Might take a quick nap so I can stay up for this, haha.

nam_pcp_012m.gif

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That first band of snow was very intense 2" in about 40 minutes or so. It let up and could also hear some pingers mixed in, then back to solid all snow, picked up another 1.8", so that is were we stand at 3.8" so far.

Yeah that sounds close to what we are about to experience... it is snowing very hard right now and since its early in the storm, you can see the snow increasing every 10 minutes on the car-tops.

LOL at Burlington going from no snow to a solid 30-40dbz in under a half hour. That's snow moving in like a wall.

Here's the base radar scan out of Burlington. Wall of snow. And also a good image to show why those of us in the mountains use the composite radar... the base scan doesn't make it over Mansfield and parts of the Green Mountain spine, but it does shoot through the Winooski Valley (I-89 corridor) towards Montpelier.

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Damn! Pingers! Seconds after my last post. You can see the 35 dbz just south of rutland on the radar indicating the progression north. Ugh.

Bummer. Luckily you should go back to snow (probably briefly heavy) once the low passes this longitude. I'm very interested to see how far north the sleet gets this evening. I think it'll reach its most northward progression between 7-9pm tonight. I wouldn't be surprised if I even see a little sleet or snow grains up here.

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I really think we will mix with some sleet for an hour or two this evening... RUC keeps coming in warmer and warmer. 21z RUC gets the H85 freezing line pretty far north and mid to lower level thicknesses aren't all that pretty.

Very interesting system as far as how poorly the models handled this.

ruc_p01_005m.gif

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Still dry here with 28-29F after a high near freezin. Nice roof-shoveling wx, after a low near -10. Almost as impressive a diurnal range as yesterday's incredible 50, with 29/-21. Clouds came in as a shield of altocumulus/altostratus, so that we went from all sun to no sun in about 30 seconds at 1 PM. Just a tiny fringe of cirrus at the front of the "altos".

GYX has backed 2" off our forecast, to 4-8" due to mixing (up to 0.1" ice), but AUG area, which was same 6-10" this AM as foothills, now is progged for 3-5" with up to 1/4" ice. Only the mts stayed 6-10", and even there some brief mixing was in the forecast. Should be a nice mess tomorrow morning. Given how far west the models have moved this thing over the past 48 hr, I'll be quite pleased if the current forecast verifies rather than having 2" of armored slush/IP/ZR.

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Wow! It is just crushing heavy snow out there.

5pm...snow begins

6pm...2" new, rate 2"/hr

6:20pm...2.5" total, rate 1.5"/hr

+SN (ASOS's around the area seem to only be reporting moderate snow but to me, snowfall rates of this magnitude deserve heavy snow regardless of measured visibility).

The Champlain Valley is also getting hit pretty good... Snow started at BTV around 4:50pm, by 5:50pm they had 0.11" of liquid, then a half hour later at 6:20pm they got another 0.10" of liquid. At 10:1 ratios that's a 2"/hr snowfall rate at BTV and the ASOS may even be under-reporting the liquid in the snow as it often does.

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