dryslot Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looking at soundings for here, It looks like we will changeover to RN breifly before going back to snow as we get to 1.3 in the H8 briefly depending on what 12z models looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Very interesting night ahead trying to guess where the R/S will be. I am concentrating in my area. Looking at 6Z NAM column just gets to freezing at Plymouth. I am going with 6-10" of plaster for me with just the possibility of a brief mix. Clouds got to come in fast today to hold the low level cold so if I mix it will be a period of freezing rain not just rain. If I stay all snow tomorrow will be great picture weather depending on how much wind on the back side. Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Very interesting night ahead trying to guess where the R/S will be. I am concentrating in my area. Looking at 6Z NAM column just gets to freezing at Plymouth. I am going with 6-10" of plaster for me with just the possibility of a brief mix. Clouds got to come in fast today to hold the low level cold so if I mix it will be a period of freezing rain not just rain. If I stay all snow tomorrow will be great picture weather depending on how much wind on the back side. Gene I don't think you'll see plain rain, but I do think you mix for a period. I think you'll be near the low end of your call, but that's just my guess. I'd say 4-6" for you. I think this gets ugly until you get into the Whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grambo Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Sorry, I posted this question in the other thread as well: Went from a trace to 3" call to 6" to 10" forecast in BTV in 24 hours. Is this generally the consensus among forecasters? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Sorry, I posted this question in the other thread as well: Went from a trace to 3" call to 6" to 10" forecast in BTV in 24 hours. Is this generally the consensus among forecasters? Thanks. I'm not a forecaster, and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but I'd say that BTV is looking pretty good for those amounts. Congrats and enjoy! I'll be seeing a mixed bag of blah followed by a couple, three inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like Bangor, ME has a snow depth of 40+ inches right now...they could be pushing 45" or more by Sunday, if this upcoming storm works out. Just amazing. This has to be a near-record snow depth for them, right? Interesting that the snow depth in Caribou is only 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 High today was 26.5F clouds are thickening and temp dropped to 25.9F DP 13.9F. I don't see any liquid here if it goes over its going to be freezing rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 MAV + 5 too high... MET +4 too high... not sure if it will make a difference later on, but we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like Bangor, ME has a snow depth of 40+ inches right now...they could be pushing 45" or more by Sunday, if this upcoming storm works out. Just amazing. This has to be a near-record snow depth for them, right? Interesting that the snow depth in Caribou is only 9". Definitely doesn't appear to be 40" on the ground in Bangor. I live about 15 miles north of Bangor and I would say closer to 30. I should go out and try to get a better idea before tonight's event. I always say I'm going to set up a stake but I never get around to it. Perhaps I will try to measure later. Looks like there may be some mixing or changing to rain tonight for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Very interesting night ahead trying to guess where the R/S will be. I am concentrating in my area. Looking at 6Z NAM column just gets to freezing at Plymouth. I am going with 6-10" of plaster for me with just the possibility of a brief mix. Clouds got to come in fast today to hold the low level cold so if I mix it will be a period of freezing rain not just rain. If I stay all snow tomorrow will be great picture weather depending on how much wind on the back side. Gene What are your thoughts for MHT? I am hoping to at least stay all frozen and a flip back to snow at the end for a few inches. is that plausable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Went from a trace to 3" call to 6" to 10" forecast in BTV in 24 hours. Hard tellin', not knowin'. Afternoon updates should be out by 4:00pm. But welcome! I'm not a forecaster, and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, Got a good chuckle from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VtWeatherWatcher Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just topped out at 38.9F for the day. Guilford, VT/I-91 @ 2:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just reviewing some of the data... I went with 4-8 and hoped for the best... SREF is interesting... There's actually a big spread in the 850 temps around the critical 3z hour... Going to be ~20 (could be lower) miles make or break here... Don't think it will be plain rain though... We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 24.6F and snowing although the snow growth is poor. We really haven't mixed out yet with a high of 26.6F. Higher elevations got above 32F this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just reviewing some of the data... I went with 4-8 and hoped for the best... SREF is interesting... There's actually a big spread in the 850 temps around the critical 3z hour... Going to be ~20 (could be lower) miles make or break here... Don't think it will be plain rain though... We'll see... 850s get warm, but the problem is also above that level...775-850 temps get warm. It appeared the EC got a tick colder though and our WRF here is relatively cool compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 25.1 Snow has started. Vis 1 mile DP 16F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 850s get warm, but the problem is also above that level...775-850 temps get warm. It appeared the EC got a tick colder though and our WRF here is relatively cool compared to the other models. Sure. My guess, and it's just that cause I don't have the data, is that a similar spread might be present at those other levels as well. It's snowing here right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just reviewing some of the data... I went with 4-8 and hoped for the best... SREF is interesting... There's actually a big spread in the 850 temps around the critical 3z hour... Going to be ~20 (could be lower) miles make or break here... Don't think it will be plain rain though... We'll see... Just looked at the SREFs...they're warmer than the last run with some members that got much warmer...so I think that's why the spread is increasing.I've sublimationally cooled down to 23.9F, but there are now some big aggregates mixing in. We'll see how long it lasts..moderate snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 What are your thoughts for MHT? I am hoping to at least stay all frozen and a flip back to snow at the end for a few inches. is that plausable? Don't think Manchester will stay all frozen. Heck, its already ZR in Nashua. Will probably end as snow but this will be a net loss of snowpack south of Concord NH in my weenie opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just looked at the SREFs...they're warmer than the last run with some members that got much warmer...so I think that's why the spread is increasing. I've sublimationally cooled down to 23.9F, but there are now some big aggregates mixing in. We'll see how long it lasts..moderate snow right now. Yea. Noticed it got warmer than last run... didn't have access to the individual members (not until ewall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's snowing very well right now... KLEB is reporting moderate... Really wouldn't be shocked, if KLEB next reports SN+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just got out of one of the kids basketball games and noticed how dark it was. Then looked around and saw the tops of the hill disappearing, stopped at store and picked up beer for the night, came out to lgt snow, 5 minutes later snow is coming down moderately with a temp of 25F. I guess it is time to rake the roof and then come in and enjoy the snow and whatever else is in store for the night...ohhh yeah enjoy the beer as well . Ok so vis has dropped under 1/4 mile +SN now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 24F moderate snow. DP up to 20F. Will start hourly snowfall amounts at 4pm. Brian what time would the warmest air aloft be over us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 24F moderate snow. DP up to 20F. Will start hourly snowfall amounts at 4pm. Brian what time would the warmest air aloft be over us? Around 3z is the warmest...so around 9pm-12am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Band is letting up, but another band approaching springfield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Definitely doesn't appear to be 40" on the ground in Bangor. I live about 15 miles north of Bangor and I would say closer to 30. I should go out and try to get a better idea before tonight's event. I always say I'm going to set up a stake but I never get around to it. Perhaps I will try to measure later. Looks like there may be some mixing or changing to rain tonight for a time. Thanks...sounds fun. Either way, very impressive depths! I got the 40" number in Bangor from the F-6 monthly climate summary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 CON is over to UP. 22.8F with some -SG here. Hopefully the next batch brings the better snow growth again and not sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Thanks...sounds fun. Either way, very impressive depths! I got the 40" number in Bangor from the F-6 monthly climate summary. I saw that too. Somehow they had 12.9" of new snow from the event a few days ago, yet had a snow depth increase of 14" from 28" to 42". So it doesn't exactly add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 it's dumping here. intensity is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 4pm very light snow 23F DP 21F 3/4" new past hour most of it coming within 30 minutes with mod/heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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