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mreaves

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Here are some pics from today...

Off and on snow showers left a half inch of new snow in the parking lot but I bet another inch fell today up at 3,000ft... will find out tomorrow when checking the snow board. Nickle and dime, nickle and dime.

The 3" of new snow over the weekend keeping things looking fresh.

Close up of a very small twig showing the low-density flakes that make up these daily light snows.

Riverbed near the base.

Another snow shower moving in.

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Just went outside to take out the trash, saw a fresh dusting and decided to measure... 0.2" new since 4pm. The painfully light, but amazingly persistent flurries/light snow continues. On pace for another inch of fluff overnight, lol.

Radar has the usual orographic flurry look to it, maybe a bit more along the higher elevations of the spine.

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Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.01” L.E.

Sunday 1/30/2011 6:00 P.M. update: We were up on the mountain at Stowe today, and as Powderfreak mentioned, it was snowing pretty nicely at times. We decided to stick to the Spruce side, and on one ride up the Sensation Quad we went from a fairly insipid winter environment at the base (~1,800’) with a little snow in the air, to a winter maelstrom of nice big flakes and evergreens drooping with caked whiteness near the summit (~3,400’). Powderfreak had some great shots of the snow and snowfall, but I added one that I took from the base of Sensation around 2:30 P.M.:

30JAN11A.jpg

Snowfall was steady but light at the base of the mountain when we left around 5:00 P.M., and we then stopped in at Morrisville, where the snowfall was even a bit more intense. Driving home, the snow tapered way down in the Stowe Village and Waterbury Center areas, but picked up quickly once we hit Colbyville, and intensified right through Waterbury and on to the house. We had some nice big fat (upslope-style) flakes falling when I took my observations, although that has slowed down now. There was another 0.6 inches on the board as of ~8:00 P.M., so this shortwave has given us more accumulation that yesterday’s, even though this one was supposedly weaker. A lot of the accumulation is due to the big flakes though.

Some details from the 6:00 P.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 1.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 120.0

Snow Density: 0.8% H2O

Temperature: 20.5 F

Sky: Snow (3-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 17.5 inches

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We were up skiing at Stowe today; light snow falling all day. Got home (about 7 miles from the mountain) and not a single flake.

When I left yesterday there wasn't even any new snow down at the Toll House base area (1 mile from Mansfield) and certainly nothing down on the Mountain Road. Amazingly persistent, yet very, very localized snows along the Spine.

I'm reporting 0" new (dusting) right now as there's roughly only a half-inch at the base (goes in the books as a trace). Will go up at 8 to check the upper mountain snow board... wouldn't be surprised to see 1-2" new up there, but not reporting it till I see it.

Looks like Bolton made out quite well as they are reporting 4-5" new snow. I did see some enhanced radar echos in that area yesterday evening... would also explain J.Spin's 1.2" of snow as I bet he got in on that same snow shower activity.

My first call for Wednesday's storm is 6-12". BTV is pretty gung-ho with this one. These are some pretty big numbers for an "average accumulation" expected:

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-6F here this morning. Had some nice star-snow last night--always amazing when that happens. Narry a cloud in the sky, the bear and the hunter both standing tall and bright, if a little fuzzy and yet steady snow falls.

Picked up 0.5" yesterday.

Had a nice ski yesterday afternoon and yep, the roof is clear. ;)

Big snows comin', lads.

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Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.03” L.E.

Monday 1/31/2011 6:00 A.M. update: Yesterday evening’s snowfall activity brought an additional 1.1 inches of very fluffy snow after the 6:00 P.M. snowboard clearing. A good chunk came from a streamer that dropped from the north and went right over us in the I-89 corridor:

30JAN11A.gif

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 1.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 55.0

Snow Density: 1.8% H2O

Temperature: 1.6 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 17.5 inches

It was very clear this morning, so all the snow activity appears to be done. If this is the last snow we see this January, we’ll end up with 55.5 inches for the month, which is the highest January total I’ve recorded here since 2006. The previous high that I’d recorded for January was 50.9 inches in the ’08-’09 season.

The BTV NWS office has started to generate some graphics for the upcoming midweek storm. Currently, the entire state is under a winter storm watch, and based on their graphics, the forecast for our area looks to be close to 18 inches of accumulation through Thursday morning. I see that Powderfreak already posted the main accumulations map, but I’ve added in the VT zoom sections below as well.

31JAN11D.jpg

31JAN11A.jpg

31JAN11B.jpg

31JAN11C.jpg

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I have a model question and maybe one of you guys that is more experienced than me knows the answer. I frequently compare runs side by side with my tabs to see trends. Interestingly comparing the 0Z and 6Z GFS this am I noticed the 6Z GFS brings in a big notch of less QPF for NH and Maine. The 0Z does not have this features and blankets the area with .25" more. Why? Its not like micro features like downslope. Do models when they run detail QPF always have a reason to place them exactly as they do? They must, it can't be abortrary.

Thanks!

Gene

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Balky home computer kept me off the board all weekend. :thumbsdown:

Sat-Sun two peas, same pod. Both days had highs in 20s, -SN all morning and flurries aft, 0.04" LE each day. Sun was fluffier, 1.0" to Sat 0.5".

Looks like a winner for midweek, though GYX says better for south end of CWA both tomorrow and Wed. 8-12" would be nice, even if Waterboro gets 20". :rolleyes:

I'm more concerned with daughter and family (they have three kids, ages 1-4 and 4th due April) in DEC. The morning AFD there has 12-20" north of I-72 (they live about 3 mi south) and 1/2-1" ice then 6"+ snow south of the Interstate. Also winds G40, and bitter cold post-storm. Sounds like a recipe for power loss, and just about nobody has backup. Central IL is historically a prime ice storm region.

Re: Vim Toot's excellent map. I'll quibble over the line in Maine SW of Millinocket; thinking it better if 20-30 miles south. That takes in Gulf Hagas, Bingham-to-Abbot hieights, Kennebec Highlands, Sumner Hills (check out snowfall for Hartford, Maine) and our state's part of WMNF. Ice storms are typically much worse just to the south of that line. Locally, the south end of K'bec Highlands was an arboreal disaster after the Jan. 1998 event, while the north half got mainly IP and had relatively minor damage. That's also the change line from softwoods dominated by pine-hemlock to a those where spruce and fir are most abundant. Fir is the leading species on my woodlot by far, and after red maple, northern white cedar is 3rd. (Spruce was sifted out by harvesting 50 or more years ago.)

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Stowe snow plots from today...

3,000ft...3" (36 hr total)... 38" depth

1,500ft...1" (24 hr total)... 18" depth

Total fluff.

Need to revise this... talked with my associate and yesterday's 3" of NEW at 3,000ft was a 24 hour total.

Here are today's:

3,000ft...2" NEW...39" DEPTH

1,500ft...1" NEW...18" DEPTH

Comments: 48 hour totals of 5" at 3K and 2" at 1.5K. It is very low moisture content snowfall so settled snow depths remain about the same.

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BTV's warning statement for their entire county warning area... they have 12-20" here, which seems a little high to me. I still like 10-12", maybe 14" tops here.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...

STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...

LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...

GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...

ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...

MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...

RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...

KILLINGTON

339 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST

THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM

EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT

LAWRENCE VALLEYS WITH 12 TO 20 INCHES ELSEWHERE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND END THURSDAY

MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON

WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS 15 TO 25. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE.

* VISIBILITIES...1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES DURING THE DAYTIME

HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

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I think BTV is a little high with these totals. But what's really interesting about this storm to me is that the totals north and south might equal out despite a pretty large gap in qpf. Down by southern VT- magic mtn/stratton I think they will get slammed with liquid. 1.5-2 inches easy across the higher terrain. However with temps much closer to freezing and sleet likely mixing in a touch, totals will be compacted and the snow will be much denser. Further north, ADK/Nor. Greens the qpf will be lighter- like 1-1.25 but with much colder temps, dendritic growth will be better and totals will pile up fluffier. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

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The clown maps are absolutely insane down here... Personally, I have a hard believing we see less than 1.2 liquid (though rumours are the Euro had less?) and average less than a 12:1 ratio (Brian?). If that is so, 14 seems like the min... And I'm slightly puzzled by Gray's two pronged approach... I'd just throw the whole thing under a warning... instead of this advisory to warning bit. But I'm sure they have their reasons.

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He must be expecting ratios in the 12-15:1 range, The most qpf any models is putting out was the NAM, I think 10-15" is reasonable here with some higher amounts and that includes what falls tomorow.. :snowman:

I believe will will have higher ratios. I'm giving a first call for the mid coast from Brunswick to Rockland of 12" to 16" for both events. 16" toward Brunswick and 12" toward Rockland.

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