Ji Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I don't know, but I'll take it. Gotta have the cold first. But I'm still more worried about a lack of precip than I am about a lack of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 maybe it's seeing signs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Because it's a model? The CFS is getting a significant upgrade in Jan, 2011. http://cfs.ncep.noaa..._CFS_102210.doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The 08-09 forecast wasn't great by any means, but it wasn't a total flop either....CFS had the right idea with very warm anomalies in the Southern Plains and cold in western/central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The 08-09 forecast wasn't great by any means, but it wasn't a total flop either....CFS had the right idea with very warm anomalies in the Southern Plains and cold in western/central Canada. That's evident from the maps I posted. I'm just making the point that seasonal models are not very good...nor should they be expected to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 That's evident from the maps I posted. I'm just making the point that seasonal models are not very good...nor should they be expected to be. Agreed, CFS has switched around a million times this winter although it's been pretty steadfast with the cold East in December. Also, the CFS uncorrected ENSO forecast looks a little absurd...doubt this thing is going to peak at -2.7C although it seems like some decent cooling is starting in Region 3.4 as the CFS predicted for late November/early December. It will be interesting to see if the cooling accelerates as CFS shows, maybe giving the model a bit more credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Because it's a La Nina fall/winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Agreed, CFS has switched around a million times this winter although it's been pretty steadfast with the cold East in December. Also, the CFS uncorrected ENSO forecast looks a little absurd...doubt this thing is going to peak at -2.7C although it seems like some decent cooling is starting in Region 3.4 as the CFS predicted for late November/early December. It will be interesting to see if the cooling accelerates as CFS shows, maybe giving the model a bit more credibility. Yeah it will be interesting...considering it's going counter to ENSO theory. But if other global blocking patterns setup just right and the CFS does somehow get lucky this season, it'll still have low end credibility in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Does anyone know why the CFS is showing this? Well, I'm guessing it's thinking of a cold AK to SE US because of all the height anomalies it's imagining over GL and eastern Canada: It's been harping on that idea for Nov - Dec or Nov - Jan...or Nov - Feb...or Dec/Jan (one of those permutations) since late last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yeah it will be interesting...considering it's going counter to ENSO theory. But if other global blocking patterns setup just right and the CFS does somehow get lucky this season, it'll still have low end credibility in my book. It does get AK, western Canada and the PAC NW into something that looks like you'd expect in a Nina. It just seems that it really likes the idea of abnormally high heights over western GL/E-CA and at, what I'm guessing, are a bit lower than the typical La Nina latitude. Not sure it'd matter, though. Cold and dry is still dry, and it's definitely not giving up on the dead STJ idea: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 It does get AK, western Canada and the PAC NW into something that looks like you'd expect in a Nina. It just seems that it really likes the idea of abnormally high heights over western GL/E-CA and at, what I'm guessing, are a bit lower than the typical La Nina latitude. Not sure it'd matter, though. Cold and dry is still dry, and it's definitely not giving up on the dead STJ idea: Yeah, it's "banking" on a blocking pattern similar to what's being projected this upcoming period to continue throughout the winter. That would be something akin to the "way back" cold SE La nina's. Those precip anomalies would make for a banner snow winter in the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. Be nice to see the CFS verify, for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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