am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't buy the Miller B idea. I'd guess a euro solution, with the low hugging the coast. Where and if it gets captured is where and when people get buried. I agree with this. It could be a typical (for the last two winters) major EC storm, but ensemble guidance appears to indicate that it will go slightly closer to the coast this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Some food for thought before the 0z GFS initializes: La Niña KU Snowstorm Statistics for Cases when the Region 3.4 Anomaly was -0.50 or lower and the Region 1+2 Anomaly was < 0: - 4/5 (80%) occurred when the AO was < 0; 3/5 (March 1956, January 1996, December 2000, and December 2010); the exception was the January 2000 snowstorm - (60%) occurred when the AO was < -2 - 3/4 (75%)--No GWO stats were kept prior to 1958--occurred when the GWO was in Phase 4 (January 1996, January 2000, and December 2010) The AO is forecast to be rising quickly but could still be somewhat negative around the January 25-26 timeframe. The GWO is currently in Phase 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12Z snapshots UK GGEM http://meteocentre.c...PN_132_0000.gif ECM GFS Sacrus, Great post. Amazing how close these solutions are 5 days or so out! Could we maybe have a separate pinned post with all 4 global models at 0Z and 12Z for this upcoming storm? Maybe include NAM as we get into its range? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 heres a comparison between 15z and 21z srefs at h5 15z 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 one thing we have going for us is the cold temperatures early next week...Anyone check the Feb. 4th 1961 storm?...1960-61 is the only winter to have two snowstorms 15" or more or two snowstorms with 20" in some parts of the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 heres a comparison between 15z and 21z srefs at h5 15z 21z looks like they are taking the slower track and also digging the trough pretty far south. The SLP maps also show the high drifting east, but this is the srefs at 87, not what they are designed for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 heres a comparison between 15z and 21z srefs at h5 15z 21z Looks like the energy is not hanging back as much on the newer run. Contours are not as elongated toward the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like the energy is not hanging back as much as the newer run. Good sign indeed. yea, heres hr 87 fwiw, which is prob little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks like they are taking the slower track and also digging the trough pretty far south. The SLP maps also show the high drifting east, but this is the srefs at 87, not what they are designed for. yea it deff would prob result poorly, but compaing to 15z, its faster, atleast it appears so. Also looks like its not nearly as amplified. Im not sure why i even posted them, they will look different next run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 one thing we have going for us is the cold temperatures early next week...Anyone check the Feb. 4th 1961 storm?...1960-61 is the only winter to have two snowstorms 15" or more or two snowstorms with 20" in some parts of the city... The quicker the better. I like the pattern no matter what happens next week which at the least we'll have a nice front and back end thump of snow. Beyond there it looks stormy and overall cold. Unc - can you send the link to your post where you list every storm snowfall totals for NYC going back to the 60s or 50s? Thanks Ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The quicker the better. I like the pattern no matter what happens next week which at the least we'll have a nice front and back end thump of snow. Beyond there it looks stormy and overall cold. Unc - can you send the link to your post where you list every storm snowfall totals for NYC going back to the 60s or 50s? Thanks Ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yea it deff would prob result poorly, but compaing to 15z, its faster, atleast it appears so. Also looks like its not nearly as amplified. all we can really take for them. individuals may give more info but for some silly reason they dont update on ewall for a long time and we may be into the gfs by then. so funny how fast the srefs come out at 9z, 15z, and 3z but 21z is an eternity on ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 http://www.americanw...-city-snowfall/ Thanks Unc. Great stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'll gladly take a blend of the 12Z Euro and the 18Z GFS. That scenario would make many folks very happy in this subforum. I tend to agree with some that the GFS may just be close in regards to speed and evolution of the system. Euro is notorious for being slow with energy coming out of the Southwest. GGEM routinely develops sub 980mb lows. NGP is where we'd expect it at this range. GFS is somewhat a surprise to me being that it tends to overamplify systems at this range. With that said, somewhere inbetween the 18Z GFS and 12Z Euro seems the most reasonable solution at this point. Many model runs and many changes to come though. I do like the GEFS anchoring in the HP during the storm. Seems like we are taking steps towards a MECS solution at the very least. In regards to temps, as others have already stated, the past Monday system is a great example of how 5 days prior we were progged to be mainly rain in SEPA with the 850 line retreating to Buffalo. We all know that didn't quite work out and we saw very little plain rain here. Models have been overdoing the eroding of cold air at this range over and over this season. That's not to say an inside runner with a long Easterly fetch wouldn't bring rain, but we should be cautious at this range in pinning down precip types...it's way too early to be that specific. Bottom line, the chances of a MECS (at the least) seems to be slowly increasing attm. one of your better posts and deserves a bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 one of your better posts and deserves a bump. Just saw the 12z EURO actual maps. 850 temps never go above 0 for N NJ/NYC northward throughout the entire storm...Not a bad solution, EURO verabtim has the low occluding south of our lattitude...mixing issues, sure, but driving rainstorm...no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just want to make sure this is right. When 850s are below frz but surface is about its sleet and when 850s are above and surface is below its frz rain right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just want to make sure this is right. When 850s are below frz but surface is about its sleet and when 850s are above and surface is below its frz rain right? I think it is more complicated than that and involves many levels of the atmosphere. I have seen sleet with a surface temp of 18 and i have seen snow with a surface temp of 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just want to make sure this is right. When 850s are below frz but surface is about its sleet and when 850s are above and surface is below its frz rain right? Generally if the depth of the freezing layer at the surface is below 2,000 feet its usually FZRA...above that there is an increased tendency to see sleet...it depends how deep the layer is above....if 750mb-900mb is your warm layer you're likely getting FZRA while if its only 800-870mb its probably sleet....you can occasionally have a 20-30mb layer above freezing in the mid-layers and be all snow.....also if you're boundary layer is the only thing above freezing you can usually see snow as long as that layer is not more than 1,500 feet deep...if you're above 32 up to 3,000 feet its a cold rain generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just want to make sure this is right. When 850s are below frz but surface is about its sleet and when 850s are above and surface is below its frz rain right? Here is good explanation without too much detail: http://kocoweatherblog.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/sleet-vs-snow-vs-freezing-rain/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's not quite that simple... typically, you would look at the soundings and determine the depth/thickness of the cold or warm layer. If the cold layer is not all that deep, it may not have enough time to refreeze before hitting the ground. Likewise, if the warm layer is shallow, you end up with sleet/snow mix or, i believe, graupel. That's in very basic language though... hope that helps. Just want to make sure this is right. When 850s are below frz but surface is about its sleet and when 850s are above and surface is below its frz rain right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM at 66 hours. That is a nice 50/50 and the energy in the plains is def. more consolidated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just want to make sure this is right. When 850s are below frz but surface is about its sleet and when 850s are above and surface is below its frz rain right? There are layers below 850 that can detemine if you stay all snow or mix, for example, 925 to 950 mb layers, warm tounge will be sleet. I believe. I could be mistaken about sleet, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NC/SC coast miss a ridiculous snowstorm by a nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NC/SC coast miss a ridiculous snowstorm by a nose. what about everybody north of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 what about everybody north of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z/00z comparison 72/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 what about everybody north of them? I'm talking about the low that pops there tomorrow and then moves out to sea, not the later storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Does anyone know for sure if any of the foreign models got the Pacific sondes from this morning? FWIW, all of the players should be "on the field" by the 12z Sunday runs. I know for a fact the EC did because I know where their data monitoring page is....and I'm assuming most (all) of the other centers did as well. The flight out this a.m. was a WestPac flight (based out of Japan) in support of an Alaskan storm, I believe. The green dots below are from the flight (I'm pretty sure). From the WSR log: OUTLOOK FOR 20110124 A flight from Yokota along track 77 is possible CARCAH comments: We are considering Track 77 to target south Alaska coast storm; negative for Atlantic. Here's the highlighted target region and path chosen based on 84h sensitivities. In other words, these observations were targeted for something Alaska-specific. I'm not sure what the plan is (yet) for any targeting that would be based on sensitivities for the potential east coast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We really could use a trend toward better blocking. It doesn't really matter to me what any model shows. The synoptic upper air pattern says that if the energy is consolidated, the ridge in the west argues for major amplification. Without blocking or a well timed 50-50, this storm is destined to come up along the coastal plain or inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z/00z comparison 72/66 The energy is coming out faster and the 50/50 is stronger by 6mb and slightly more west based, but it's slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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