Analog96 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 talk about fast. Some of the GEFS have really picked up the pace. Here is 96, 102, 108 and 114. Also note the GEFS coming into better agreement with a more west based HP position Faster= more snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Faster= more snow for us. Agreed. What are your preliminary thoughts for this thing. Can we hit the trifecta and snag our third warning criteria snow with no rain involved this winter? Won't take much for the Euro to give a colder solution and the Gem ensembles are currently colder than its Op and the Ukie and Dgex have been hideous all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Faster= more snow for us. In a progressive Nina pattern, it's not out of the realm of possibility that a GFS like solution could actually be right. But the trend this season has also been toward amplification, so we'll see. The weaker and less phasing the better, along with obviously that high staying in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 In a progressive Nina pattern, it's not out of the realm of possibility that a GFS like solution could actually be right. But the trend this season has also been toward amplification, so we'll see. The weaker and less phasing the better, along with obviously that high staying in place. So what would amplification PLUS faster= MASSIVE BLIZZARD! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So what would amplification PLUS faster= MASSIVE BLIZZARD! LOL! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the ridiculous DGEX snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the ridiculous DGEX snowfall map Huzzah! Will this one fill in the blizzard hungry PA snow hole? I doubt it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the ridiculous DGEX snowfall map Only 30 inches for State College? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Am I the only one who likes the 18z GFS? At least it's not inland giving the region rain. It would still be a good storm. Its still on the fringe of its poor range at 102-120 hours...and if its wrong its obviously way too early with the storm as other models are later...if the GFS is showing this same setup tomorrow at 84 hours or so and the other models are still more amplified and later its likely the GFS is onto something since it tends to rarely have huge gaffs inside 90 hours outside of maybe being to suppressed with tracks...in this case though if the storm occurs at Day 3-4 instead of 5-6 it will be virtually impossible to get an inland or coastal hugging track due to the high still being far enough west...that probably confused someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Its still on the fringe of its poor range at 102-120 hours...and if its wrong its obviously way too early with the storm as other models are later...if the GFS is showing this same setup tomorrow at 84 hours or so and the other models are still more amplified and later its likely the GFS is onto something since it tends to rarely have huge gaffs inside 90 hours outside of maybe being to suppressed with tracks...in this case though if the storm occurs at Day 3-4 instead of 5-6 it will be virtually impossible to get an inland or coastal hugging track due to the high still being far enough west...that probably confused someone. well if the storm starts tues, tomorrow nights runs will probably be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Its still on the fringe of its poor range at 102-120 hours...and if its wrong its obviously way too early with the storm as other models are later...if the GFS is showing this same setup tomorrow at 84 hours or so and the other models are still more amplified and later its likely the GFS is onto something since it tends to rarely have huge gaffs inside 90 hours outside of maybe being to suppressed with tracks...in this case though if the storm occurs at Day 3-4 instead of 5-6 it will be virtually impossible to get an inland or coastal hugging track due to the high still being far enough west...that probably confused someone. I'm just annoyed that I have to actively support and root for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z GFS 10:1 18z gfs with ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 When dealing with surface temps, let us all consider the debacle just a few days ago where everyone was colder (some significantly so) than progged. I don't mind the solutions with a warm BL at this point, those tend to work themselves out when 850s are below freezing in the middle of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Its still on the fringe of its poor range at 102-120 hours...and if its wrong its obviously way too early with the storm as other models are later...if the GFS is showing this same setup tomorrow at 84 hours or so and the other models are still more amplified and later its likely the GFS is onto something since it tends to rarely have huge gaffs inside 90 hours outside of maybe being to suppressed with tracks...in this case though if the storm occurs at Day 3-4 instead of 5-6 it will be virtually impossible to get an inland or coastal hugging track due to the high still being far enough west...that probably confused someone. This model is so bipolar. Hot one min cold the next however its ensembles have been pretty stable this year and they really agree on the faster colder solution. Cmc ensembles also faster and colder. If gfs doesn't blink tonight then it really has to be pondered whether its onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This model is so bipolar. Hot one min cold the next however its ensembles have been pretty stable this year and they really agree on the faster colder solution. Cmc ensembles also faster and colder. If gfs doesn't blink tonight then it really has to be pondered whether its onto something. I really think the GEM will catch on faster if the GFS is correct, the Euro may be longer since the SW slow ejection may hurt it for a longer stretch...the GFS I really think loses this storm either tonight or tomorrow AM if its got the wrong idea, if it doesn't I like the chances on the coast and its probably another screw job for the inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Its still on the fringe of its poor range at 102-120 hours...and if its wrong its obviously way too early with the storm as other models are later...if the GFS is showing this same setup tomorrow at 84 hours or so and the other models are still more amplified and later its likely the GFS is onto something since it tends to rarely have huge gaffs inside 90 hours outside of maybe being to suppressed with tracks...in this case though if the storm occurs at Day 3-4 instead of 5-6 it will be virtually impossible to get an inland or coastal hugging track due to the high still being far enough west...that probably confused someone. Yep...considering there's a 18 hour spread between the GFS and EC on snowfall the first thing that popped into my mind was traditional "holding back" bias by the EC as we tend to see a divergence between the two models in timing in the D5 range...the GFS is more often faster than the EC. Which one ends up being right varies but to see a divergence at this point is not unexpected. Edit: FWIW w/ Boxing Day the Euro was more accurate at Day 5 -- the GFS was suppressed and a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I really think the GEM will catch on faster if the GFS is correct, the Euro may be longer since the SW slow ejection may hurt it for a longer stretch...the GFS I really think loses this storm either tonight or tomorrow AM if its got the wrong idea, if it doesn't I like the chances on the coast and its probably another screw job for the inland areas. Dear god, I hope not.... But since you said it, I suppose it is within the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Does anyone know for sure if any of the foreign models got the Pacific sondes from this morning? FWIW, all of the players should be "on the field" by the 12z Sunday runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 When dealing with surface temps, let us all consider the debacle just a few days ago where everyone was colder (some significantly so) than progged. I don't mind the solutions with a warm BL at this point, those tend to work themselves out when 850s are below freezing in the middle of winter. Don't forget also that models had temps in last night's storm hovering right around freezing and even a little above on some runs for a few locations. Meanwhile most of us dropped into the 20's comfortably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Dear god, I hope not.... But since you said it, I suppose it is within the realm of possibilities. Not sure he meant you. I believe he meant C-PA and C-NY. The spine of the apps so to speak. If I'm wrong, I'm sure he'll let us know. I personally believe E-PA, including you, do well in a scenario outlined by him in his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 One factor not to be discounted is the time of year / climatology argument. Historically, the last few days of January through the first three weeks of February are the most favorable time of year for snow events for the coastal Northeast. That certainly doesn't mean that there can't be a raging rainstorm then, only that the odds of it happening are at their lowest level of the calendar year... Isn't that mainly due to the thermal difference between a snowpack and the warmer ocean tending to keep storms along the gradient off the coast rather than inland?? Obviously, if the 500H pattern is hostile, we're screwed, but it seems marginal conditions do favor us this time of year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 With arctic highs to the north - a +PNA and a -NAO - inland solution is doubtful - right now the GFS looks the most reasonable solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't know about climo but Diane Sawyer on World News Tonight earlier said that thanks to global warming, big snowstorms and cold winters will now be the norm... I don't agree with that but I wouldn't mind a mini ice age. Snowpack along the warm ocean does set up a baroclinic zone though that storms would like to follow, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 With arctic highs to the north - a +PNA and a -NAO - inland solution is doubtful - right now the GFS looks the most reasonable solution... The -NAO is based in the Northeast Atlantic and really doesn't play a role in the evolution of this particular storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'll gladly take a blend of the 12Z Euro and the 18Z GFS. That scenario would make many folks very happy in this subforum. I tend to agree with some that the GFS may just be close in regards to speed and evolution of the system. Euro is notorious for being slow with energy coming out of the Southwest. GGEM routinely develops sub 980mb lows. NGP is where we'd expect it at this range. GFS is somewhat a surprise to me being that it tends to overamplify systems at this range. With that said, somewhere inbetween the 18Z GFS and 12Z Euro seems the most reasonable solution at this point. Many model runs and many changes to come though. I do like the GEFS anchoring in the HP during the storm. Seems like we are taking steps towards a MECS solution at the very least. In regards to temps, as others have already stated, the past Monday system is a great example of how 5 days prior we were progged to be mainly rain in SEPA with the 850 line retreating to Buffalo. We all know that didn't quite work out and we saw very little plain rain here. Models have been overdoing the eroding of cold air at this range over and over this season. That's not to say an inside runner with a long Easterly fetch wouldn't bring rain, but we should be cautious at this range in pinning down precip types...it's way too early to be that specific. Bottom line, the chances of a MECS (at the least) seems to be slowly increasing attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Also historically speaking rising PNA and slightly negative rising to neutral NAO is very favorable to EC storms. Just looking at the last few gefs height anomoly means, the NAO has gotten a little more west based and held on a little longer each run before it rises to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The -NAO is based in the Northeast Atlantic and really doesn't play a role in the evolution of this particular storm. With all due respect gonna have to respectfully disagree. The 570 heights east of greenland on the snowier solutions do manage to back in and over the 50/50 low helping it to hang in there just a little longer and thus keeep the HP anchored in a little longer. That is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'll gladly take a blend of the 12Z Euro and the 18Z GFS. That scenario would make many folks very happy in this subforum. I tend to agree with some that the GFS may just be close in regards to speed and evolution of the system. Euro is notorious for being slow with energy coming out of the Southwest. GGEM routinely develops sub 980mb lows. NGP is where we'd expect it at this range. GFS is somewhat a surprise to me being that it tends to overamplify systems at this range. With that said, somewhere inbetween the 18Z GFS and 12Z Euro seems the most reasonable solution at this point. Many model runs and many changes to come though. I do like the GEFS anchoring in the HP during the storm. Seems like we are taking steps towards a MECS solution at the very least. In regards to temps, as others have already stated, the past Monday system is a great example of how 5 days prior we were progged to be mainly rain in SEPA with the 850 line retreating to Buffalo. We all know that didn't quite work out and we saw very little plain rain here. Models have been overdoing the eroding of cold air at this range over and over this season. That's not to say an inside runner with a long Easterly fetch wouldn't bring rain, but we should be cautious at this range in pinning down precip types...it's way too early to be that specific. Bottom line, the chances of a MECS (at the least) seems to be slowly increasing attm. Good post, Ralph. Haven't seen you post in a while. Maybe the GFS is showing it's slight SE bias again? We all know the models will shift over the next few days. The important thing I guess is to wait until we have a bit more consensus so we can watch for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12Z snapshots UK GGEM http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif ECM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 With arctic highs to the north - a +PNA and a -NAO - inland solution is doubtful - right now the GFS looks the most reasonable solution... I don't buy the Miller B idea. I'd guess a euro solution, with the low hugging the coast. Where and if it gets captured is where and when people get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.