Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Images? EDIT add 72 hr QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 nice hit on th 18 z GFS from DC metro area to hagertown, md to the immedIate NYC metro area. Yes, it looks like a major snowstorm for the area to me verbatim. The 0c line at 10m comes up to near TTN, but not quite to PHL at 96 before retreating to (almost) the coast at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is a little different though....we could be talking about an historic storm like March 1993 where we see 8-12" snow, then some rain/sleet mixing in, and then a change back to snow as the low bombs to our northeast. Monday night was a glorified SW flow event. Zucker...I am in putnam county...bit north of you. You think we have mixing issues to worry about as well? I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i only remember one op run showing it or maybe 2 at the most. It was the euro ens that were more like the gfs solutions. Thanks Tom. I recall the long duration run but thought there was another colder coastal scenario showing mostly snow for our region. Anyway, I was just curious to see and try and guage its trends. This storm and setup seems more in its wheel house but the ecm has had a tendency to be a bit more amped (west) in its medium range on occasion this season. I suspect we'll have more convergence towards 12z tomorrow and 00z Sunday. It'll be fun tracking and look fwd to your euro posts later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is a little different though....we could be talking about an historic storm like March 1993 where we see 8-12" snow, then some rain/sleet mixing in, and then a change back to snow as the low bombs to our northeast. Monday night was a glorified SW flow event. If it's like that I'll take it. But in my head I was thinking washout after the snow causing a big meltoff and ponding of roads and sidewalks and so on and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No thanks. Change to rain makes everything so sloppy. You didn't see how it was this past Monday? IMHO monday wasnt that bad, ya i would rather snow but it really didnt ruin snowpack like everyone expected and if you removed the snow before the heavy rain it was just wet grounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 fwiw the 18z gfs mean takes a sub 1012 low at hse or eastern nc and tracks it to about a sub 1000 low about 100-125 miles off nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18z GFS ensembles look pretty good, holds the HIGH north of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GEFS have come into better agreement at 18z and the mean is a nice hit for the NYC area. Spag. are also a little less scattered. One thing I notice is that they HP really stays anchored on the mean, similar to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol, three gefs posts at once, i guess they are good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol, three gefs posts at once, i guess they are good! i beat all of you guys though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i beat all of you guys though. well, as long as you beat me with good news, its all good. Spag. also agree with timing for no members really holding back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 1 to 1.25 liquid along the coastal plain from just NE of philly up to boston on the 18z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here's the map to go with trials post: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well, as long as you beat me with good news, its all good. Spag. also agree with timing for no members really holding back. yes, but there are still a good amount of ens members that are cuggers to slightly inland, they are virtually split. The operational, is virtually the furthest east of all the ens members to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, this is gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yes, but there are still a good amount of ens members that are cuggers to slightly inland, they are virtually split. The operational, is virtually the furthest east of all the ens members to agreed, but the have tightened. What I like is the timing, at 12z, they were very spread out timing wise, not so much at 18z which is the mean is tighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, this is gonna happen I'd surrender my virginity to that hot mess in a second if I was still at PSU. Dang!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, this is gonna happen so you are saying I shouldn't law a few grand down in vegas on the dgex verifying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, this is gonna happen Can a man dream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, this is gonna happen You need to find a 'what hath god wrought' image for this one...wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 From Upton. Notice their deference to the seasonal trend BETTER MODEL CLUSTERING WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME IS EVOLUTION OF MID WEST UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW...AND ITS PROGRESSION TO THE EAST. LATEST GFS A BIT FASTER THAN 00Z ECMWF WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER AND SFC LOW...WITH GGEM SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST EVENTUALLY. AS MENTIONED...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS TODAY WITH A SFC LOW TRACK SOMEWHERE AROUND THE 40/70 BENCHMARK (EXCEPT GGEM)...OR JUST INSIDE AS WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER. DRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA/CANADIAN MARITIMES GETS KICKED OUT AS MID WEST CLOSED LOW PIVOTS AROUND MEAN TROUGH. THIS DEEP TROUGH DIGS AS IT MOVES EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING AND SLIGHT POSITIONING DIFFERENCES NOTED...BUT GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS OUT...GENERALLY EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN PASS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AS ALREADY MENTIONED...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE IN LATER TUESDAY...WITH WINTRY MIX COAST AND MORE SNOW INTERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IF FORECAST TRACK VERIFIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Am I the only one who likes the 18z GFS? At least it's not inland giving the region rain. It would still be a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyk Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Upton changing its tune....primarily wet discussion this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 talk about fast. Some of the GEFS have really picked up the pace. Here is 96, 102, 108 and 114. Also note the GEFS coming into better agreement with a more west based HP position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 All we need is a heat warning now and we have it all covered. its noce the 18z gfs went more east than west. As tom pointed out its just about on the eastern extreme of its ensebmbles. Most intetesting to me is the GGEM ensembles were completlet counter to the 12z operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, this is gonna happen Road trip to State College? I still know some of the bouncers so I could get you past the door, no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That is not something you see very often from the CPC that's for sure, alot of potential with this storm as well as different solutions, we could be talking anything from a blizzard to flooding rains and everything in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 All we need is a heat warning now and we have it all covered. its noce the 18z gfs went more east than west. As tom pointed out its just about on the eastern extreme of its ensebmbles. Most intetesting to me is the GGEM ensembles were completlet counter to the 12z operational. seriously, where is the heat advisory? there are some beautiful gefs members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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