jasonli18t Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 give the GFS credit, its 18z looks like 12z consistency means nothing if it's wrong...i think we should credit models after an event has ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 gfs still holding to its 12z track.... not saying it will happen this time but haven't there been a few notable times this winter where the GFS held serve and the others caved in to it eventually??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 consistency means nothing if it's wrong...i think we should credit models after an event has ended. yeah.. Its consistently an outlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 not saying it will happen this time but haven't there been a few notable times this winter where the GFS held serve and the others caved in to it eventually??? The only time I can think of was the Boxing Day storm and the whole initialization errors debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 not saying it will happen this time but haven't there been a few notable times this winter where the GFS held serve and the others caved in to it eventually??? ummm yea there may of been. Its still to early to say what going to happen, but i dont like the alliance forming right now imho....gfs and ggem ens vs the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 None of the models have consistently outperformed any of the others this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ummm yea there may of been. Its still to early to say what going to happen, but i dont like the alliance forming right now imho....gfs and ggem ens vs the rest. The GFS obviously nailed the Boxing Day storm shifting west... In this case, it seems to have the H5 trough further north and weaker, which leads to a moderate Miller B type storm rather than the coastal hugger/bomb that other models show. Obviously, a weaker storm is more likely historically, but it doesn't mean the GFS has to be right in this case. It doesn't really matter quite as much to me though, as I'll probably do well to the north of NYC in an inland bomb with overrunning and dynamics, although I wouldn't mind staying all snow and having another cold storm. Nothing to worry about yet though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18z GFS is a good hit at 102 and 108, although a bit far east for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 consistency means nothing if it's wrong...i think we should credit models after an event has ended. I didn't say it was right, please do not twist my words It was more of a reference to a back to back solution that was similar which is something we have really yet to see on any global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Surface temperatures do not look right. It has a nice High Pressure system supplying cold air to the NE. The surface should be much much colder. Not with the easterly fetch depicted on the DGEX. I think it's completely out to lunch, but as depicted, that's wet, wet snow to driving rainstorm for anyplace south or east of I-95 and in the cities. ummm yea there may of been. Its still to early to say what going to happen, but i dont like the alliance forming right now imho....gfs and ggem ens vs the rest. The 90's and 00's were ruled by the EE rule. Now it's the GG rule baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The GFS obviously nailed the Boxing Day storm shifting west... In this case, it seems to have the H5 trough further north and weaker, which leads to a moderate Miller B type storm rather than the coastal hugger/bomb that other models show. Obviously, a weaker storm is more likely historically, but it doesn't mean the GFS has to be right in this case. It doesn't really matter quite as much to me though, as I'll probably do well to the north of NYC in an inland bomb with overrunning and dynamics, although I wouldn't mind staying all snow and having another cold storm. Nothing to worry about yet though... Especially with the kind of winter we're having and the progged upcoming pattern no reason to be downcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS looks like a weaker colder version of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18Z GFS is a disorganized mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yeah.. Its consistently an outlier.. no, the GGEM is an outlier with its 972 lows over upstate ny. Nothing else show that that I can think of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Especially with the kind of winter we're having and the progged upcoming pattern no reason to be downcast. Persistence, persistence. Unlikely to see an inland runner with a perfect +PNA centered over Boise, a -NAO, and a high pressure to the north. We haven't seen that type of storm in years anyhow, so why should it start now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 heres the nogaps at hr 120 heres a better loop https://www.fnmoc.na...au=120&set=Core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18z gfs looks weak and east, i rather take the impressive storm even if its not all snow rather then weak. but thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Persistence, persistence. Unlikely to see an inland runner with a perfect +PNA centered over Boise, a -NAO, and a high pressure to the north. We haven't seen that type of storm in years anyhow, so why should it start now? seasonal pattern/trend till it doesnt do it is the safe money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18z GFS the furthest south and east....not much of a shocker here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Mentioned by Steve on one of the Central/Western threads, the 12Z GFS had some winter storm mission drop sonde data from the Pacific incorporated into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Are u talking about the low or the precip? Because i see .75" of qpf and a solid snowfall quote name='nycsnow' timestamp='1295648253' post='332397'] 18z gfs looks weak and east, i rather take the impressive storm even if its not all snow rather then weak. but thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 seasonal pattern/trend till it doesnt do it is the safe money. Concur. Maybe I have selective memory, but it seems like the GFS has picked up on things first this year, then the other models follow. It, however, does not always pick up the CORRECT idea though. More like the GFS is the dumb kid in the class, then the other models cheat off of his paper. They all end up getting it wrong, but the GFS leads the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Question - can someone give me a quick summary of recent ECm runs (excluding today). I recall 2 or 3 recent runs showing the 12z gfs-like scenario recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 nice hit on th 18 z GFS from DC metro area to hagertown, md to the immedIate NYC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Question - can someone give me a quick summary of recent ECm runs (excluding today). I recall 2 or 3 recent runs showing the 12z gfs-like scenario recently. i only remember one op run showing it or maybe 2 at the most. It was the euro ens that were more like the gfs solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i wouldnt mind changing over to rain as long as we get a good front dumping. i just wanna see this baby evolve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM mean is a lot colder than the op run and has a nice coastal storm. Images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i wouldnt mind changing over to rain as long as we get a good front dumping. i just wanna see this baby evolve! Same here. I'd love 30" as much as the next guy, but it should be an interesting next few days watching the models and studying snowstorms of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i wouldnt mind changing over to rain as long as we get a good front dumping. i just wanna see this baby evolve! No thanks. Change to rain makes everything so sloppy. You didn't see how it was this past Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No thanks. Change to rain makes everything so sloppy. You didn't see how it was this past Monday? This is a little different though....we could be talking about an historic storm like March 1993 where we see 8-12" snow, then some rain/sleet mixing in, and then a change back to snow as the low bombs to our northeast. Monday night was a glorified SW flow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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