phlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hey, will the models change several more times? I really need 50 more people to post this tired cliche that contributes nothing but inflated post count of the thread to be sure. thx also need some more intra-region squabbling . Really raises the level of discussion. edit buttons will also help keep the post count in check. [/ball busting] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You may remember that 80 knot plus 850 mb jet I mentioned visible on the free ECMWF site? The AccuWx PPV site shows 10 meter winds Hour 132 at 60 mph in Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just some of my thoughts regarding the upcoming system. One thing that really annoys me is that there are individuals in this thread stating that a mecs/hecs can't happen and discounting such a solution, while advocating the other solution, as if it has already occurred. One thing I saw mentioned is how the current depiction cannot support a major snowstorm, because the high slides east and the warm air intrudes into the region. Yes that would be correct if the current solution depicted by some models transpires. Let's no forget things change and already have/will continue to. A few days ago a snowstorm was not even a reasonable prospect/on the table. So how could it be we have evolved to the current point in time, where the solution seems much more more convoluted and far from determined? The atmosphere is undergoing changes and the models are adjusting accordingly. It is a catch up game. The biggest thing I notice that is evident on most models that was not even apparent a few days ago is blocking. The depictions of this block at H5 on many models has become more apparent and the signal has become stronger the last few days. The models keep increasing the ridging over Greenland and the block seems healthier as the days progress, this wasn't even shown on most models just a few days ago. This is what is causing the changes at the surface and ultimately causing the confusion. Take the NAM and GFS depictions respectively at 500mb at 72hrs. These features weren't even apparent just a few days ago. I don't see why models can't continue to pick up on these features and better illustrate them as time progresses. Just think a few days ago we were talking about an inland runner, now the conclusion isn't as clear. The blocking I mention is crucial because it will be important in preventing the system from cutting west, or allowing the HP to slide out to sea as quick, or allow rapid WAA ahead of the LP. Confluence will be very important. There are other factors however that I also think should be noted. Most models depict a healthy ridge out west (+PNA) which would argue against any energy hanging back west and a quicker overall progression. The large ridge forces the cold air downstream into the trough in the eastern US and forces the pattern/trough to progress east. MJO is at least favorable and the state of the NAO is improving. Now I am not forecasting a large snowstorm, I was simply appalled by the posts stating that there is no way this can be a mecs/hecs for the east coast. Let's remember how we even got to the point of discussing this potential, things have changed and continue to change. What was never even a thought a few days ago, now holds some merit and is definitely deserving of attention. I would like to continue to see the improvements at H5 continue, and being that we are still a few days out, it is not out of the realm of possibilities. And if anything the biggest factor might simply be that everything seems to be going right this winter for some areas, whose to say that changes. There was a point last year where I said to myself, no way in hell the mid atlantic is going to get another MECS, well guess what, it happened multiple times. Excellent post and I agree. I think the attitude permeating this thread is that people that are in the areas jackpotting with all snow right now have not had snow much this winter while areas east of them have been plastered. They feel it is their turn now and these solutions must be right and will occur as depicted in all aspects. Of course that is silliness and mother nature doesn't care who has gotten what so far. It will be what it will be and the setup will develop in whatever way it wants. Here's hoping we all get feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM mean is a lot colder than the op run and has a nice coastal storm. The GEM has almost no support outside of 2 members at 132 hours and notice how almost all of them are also well faster than the Op run as well...the GEM was very bad with this storm we had last night as well at this range, remember it had a 994mb low over NYC and none of its members supported it...turned out the Op run was wrong...the snow did go to rain in CNJ last night but the low track was still well south of where the GEM showed it at Day 4-5. http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 let's not forget a solution depicted as the GFS shows would be favorable snows for everyone not just the usual areas this winter. Anyways the hanging back of the energy over the SW is crucial and has a significant impact on the forecast. The reality is the GFS/EURO etc all showed this occurring a few days ago, they have just trended away from that and eject it quicker. I have a hard time believing that in a fast paced pattern like this that the energy will hang back, especially with the PNA ridge being so amplified. Just comparing the 18z NAM to the 12NAM at H5, it seems to be doing less of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 let's not forget a solution depicted as the GFS shows would be favorable snows for everyone not just the usual areas this winter. Anyways the hanging back of the energy over the SW is crucial and has a significant impact on the forecast. The reality is the GFS/EURO etc all showed this occurring a few days ago, they have just trended away from that and eject it quicker. I have a hard time believing that in a fast paced pattern like this that the energy will hang back, especially with the PNA ridge being so amplified. Just comparing the 18z NAM to the 12NAM at H5, it seems to be doing less of that. well, that PNA ridge could actually burn us if it doesnt get east enough it can get some of the energy "trapped" down the back side and not consolidated into the trough. still, i agree, the trend has been to speed this up and hold less back with the gfs, jma, nogaps abondiing the slow solution and the cmc ensembles clearly favoring the quicker colder scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18Z NAM @ 84 shows excellent NAO blocking, maybe slightly east-based. PNA ridge is there but looks sort of flat to my amateur eyes, but building still. Energy appears more consolidated in the Plains and heights along the EC are starting to rise. Its the 18z NAM at max range, take it fwiw. Appears headed in the right direction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 for anyone wondering what the NAM did after 84 hours, its like the euro. Cold at 850, but warm at the surface. Its out on raleigh a very nice intererior PA interior NY snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 As I mentioned in the other thread, the key to how the system evolves is the way the modeling handles the primary H5 vort. The 6Z GFS keeps the H5 low open, allowing more digging to take place, more amplification, and an inland or coast-hugging solution that drenches the big cities in rain and introduces p-type issues clear to ABE. The 12Z GFS closes it, and keeps it closed longer, allowing it to round the base of the trough near Greensboro, NC rather than near Atlanta, GA. The more the feature digs and amplifies, the more likely the inland snow to rain solution becomes. This is going to be a doozy regardless of how it plays out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 long time lurker whats going on guys?, btw how are the winds looking for the next storm, regardless its going to be crazy to watch happen. Welcome to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NAM has a 979 L off delmarva? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NAM has a 979 L off delmarva? Techincally the DGEX but yet it shows that and the storm never gets closer than that to NYC. Its a euro gfs hybdrid solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Techincally the DGEX but yet it shows that and the storm never gets closer than that to NYC. Its a euro gfs hybdrid solution. Why does it then have the lower levels so warm? We've seen storms in similar positions or even west of there produce major snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I have a hard time believing there will be any surface cold problems with the 2m temps with a 979 low in that position... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NAM has a 979 L off delmarva? Not syaing it will be all/mostly snow, but come hell or highwater EVERY STORM so far this winter has ended up in the same 'spot' this year. Do not go against the pattern until it goes against you. I am fairly confident the low will pass between 50 miles east of AC to 200 miles east of AC at this latitude (as the EURO/EURO Ensebles/GFS/GFS Ensem/GGEM Ensembles/NAM extended depicts) but details of temp profiles, etc. is the rub with this one. Even though the storm early this week was in a good location off the coast was still mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yeah, DGEX has a nice cold flow out of the NE down the coast plain, seems strange. If the LL was not so warm, that would be a beautiful solution for us all and would help out those moutainy folks in PA who are looking for their big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW I have access to a snow liquid equivalent map for the EURO (generally its useless because the scale goes .1 to 1" and then up by the inch from there) for 12z any way the the 1" line runs from Bethesda, MD cuts right through Baltimore,just west of Wilmington, DE to Willow Grove, PA, to Ewing, NJ to Sandy Hook, NJ, come on shore around Islip, NY, exits LI around Rock Point 2" line Leesburg, VA to Lancaster, PA, Hamburg, PA, then eastward right through Allentown, PA to Morristown, NJ to Yonkers NY, to White Plains, NY to West Hartford, CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW I have access to a snow liquid equivalent map for the EURO (generally its useless because the scale goes .1 to 1" and then up by the inch from there) for 12z any way the the 1" line runs from Bethesda, MD cuts right through Baltimore,just west of Wilmington, DE to Willow Grove, PA, to Ewing, NJ to Sandy Hook, NJ, come on shore around Islip, NY, exits LI around Rock Point 2" line Leesburg, VA to Lancaster, PA, Hamburg, PA, then eastward right through Allentown, PA to Morristown, NJ to Yonkers NY, to White Plains, NY to West Hartford, CT So its saying Ewing sees 1" Liquid equivalent in the form of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW I have access to a snow liquid equivalent map for the EURO (generally its useless because the scale goes .1 to 1" and then up by the inch from there) for 12z any way the the 1" line runs from Bethesda, MD cuts right through Baltimore,just west of Wilmington, DE to Willow Grove, PA, to Ewing, NJ to Sandy Hook, NJ, come on shore around Islip, NY, exits LI around Rock Point 2" line Leesburg, VA to Lancaster, PA, Hamburg, PA, then eastward right through Allentown, PA to Morristown, NJ to Yonkers NY, to White Plains, NY to West Hartford, CT oh yeah a 3" blip just south of Harrisburg, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So its saying Ewing sees 1" Liquid equivalent in the form of snow? in between Ewing and Trenton is the southern boundary for 1" liquid equivalent of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this deserves a LOL http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this deserves a LOL http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html Surface temperatures do not look right. It has a nice High Pressure system supplying cold air to the NE. The surface should be much much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Haha it sounds like you dont want a historic February You would have hated the early part of the twentieth century lol. Oh not the case at all my friend, just my way of stating how ridiculous its been for us of late and that we've had more than our fair share...Ive had five 10"+ storms and another 9.5" storm in a span of a year and 2 weeks in coastal NJ, and then March 2009 was close to a foot in Holmdel as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Surface temperatures do not look right. It has a nice High Pressure system supplying cold air to the NE. The surface should be much much colder. well there is a ridiculous easterly flow from the wrapped up surface low. The funnier part is how the storm hits a brick wall like there was a 1050 high above it over some kind of suppressive block, neither of which exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 give the GFS credit, its 18z looks like 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh not the case at all my friend, just my way of stating how ridiculous its been for us of late and that we've had more than our fair share...Ive had five 10"+ storms and another 9.5" storm in a span of a year and 2 weeks in coastal NJ, and then March 2009 was close to a foot in Holmdel as well... Definitely! Im sure you remember as well as high how badly our region was for snowfall for extended multiyear periods-- 1987-88 thru 1991-92 and 1996-97 thru 2001-02 chief among them. I would like to share the kind of season we've been having, especially since a lot of those areas didnt get in on the truly heavy snow last winter either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well there is a ridiculous easterly flow from the wrapped up surface low. The funnier part is how the storm hits a brick wall like there was a 1050 high above it over some kind of suppressive block, neither of which exist. A block exists, just east of the 'preferred' spot...ALL models are picking up on the fact the storm should hit a wall at about the latitude of the Delmarva/S NJ and scoot out to the right...question is, is that too late for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well there is a ridiculous easterly flow from the wrapped up surface low. The funnier part is how the storm hits a brick wall like there was a 1050 high above it over some kind of suppressive block, neither of which exist. I wonder if its following some kind of sst thermal profile that exists just offshore? If you can find a map of where the SST are milder than other regions just off shore and match it up with the storm track, perhaps we could come up with a reason for that track. That's assuming the models account for that kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 gfs still holding to its 12z track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 A block exists, just east of the 'preferred' spot...ALL models are picking up on the fact the storm should hit a wall at about the latitude of the Delmarva/S NJ and scoot out to the right...question is, is that too late for us? The issue must be the low level warmth, as I remember that with Feb 83, Jan 96 and PD2 exactly this kind of track happened where the storm scooted south once it reached the latitude of Delaware or ACY. That's the classic coastal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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