gkrangers Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For the coast, I might be concerned that the UKMET is not a progressive, sheared out 700 miles OTS POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's pretty comical to see all of the coastal folks trying to defend the off-shore model runs and how all the NW folks are trying to defend the inland model runs. Nobody can say for sure that one or the other is 100 % correct at this point. All options are on the table as each model has some good and bad points. It's best to compromise at this point until we get closer to the event. We'll see how this ultimately plays out. Let's just hope for the sake of everybody's sanity though that we can ALL get in on the fun with this storm, not just a certain geographical area. LOL...this is true...I'm not defending anything...I will say that a amped up LP coming up from the south usually spells bad news for coastal areas, especially is HP is moving offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Theres a new thread fellas, not sure why they didnt lock this one http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9940-nycphl-125-27-potential-part-iii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I looked at them and I don't think they do at all. They have a miller A unlike the GFS but don't amplify the trough as fast as the NAM/op Euro, resulting in a farther east solution. exactly. the euro ensembles do NOT support the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL...this is true...I'm not defending anything...I will say that a amped up LP coming up from the south usually spells bad news for coastal areas, especially is HP is moving offshore. True, but let's hope that HP either hangs on a bit longer or another HP builds in somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 exactly. the euro ensembles do NOT support the gfs and they dont support the OP either. I have seen the mean and the spaghetti plots. The mean is cold and taken verbatum its snow for everyone. The spaghetti plots are faster than the OP and most are east of the op which means they would be colder since they would be getting to the cold air quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is caving and is slowing and digging the energy more this run through 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is caving and is slowing and digging the energy more this run through 48 hrs. it has a closed 500 low over the great lakes, not sure what you are seeing. It opens up at 54 hours but clearly its still favoring the northern stream. Would not surprise me though to see it come out with a hybrid like its enembles and not a pure miller b. Its ensembles are probably a good compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes GFS is trending to Euro at 48 digging further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 EURO 00Z ensemble means & spreads: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it has a closed 500 low over the great lakes, not sure what you are seeing. It opens up at 54 hours but clearly its still favoring the northern stream. Would not surprise me though to see it come out with a hybrid like its enembles and not a pure miller b. Its ensembles are probably a good compromise. Just go compare the 66 hrs 6z gfs and 60 hrs 12z gfs 500 mb forecast and you will see glaring differences in the orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS and NAM look much more similar now at 500 mb at 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just a reminder...new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Very similar to Euro at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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