NorthShoreWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Use the 90% rule. When 90% of the posts in a model thread are about why not to trust warm solutions, its probably going to rain. The ratios are directly proportional. 90% of such posts = 90% chance of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Use the 90% rule. When 90% of the posts in a model thread are about why not to trust warm solutions, its probably going to rain. The ratios are directly proportional. 90% of such posts = 90% chance of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Why don't we all go back into our collective weather memories and not panic because the NAM turned everyone up to Boston to rain with the event we JUST had when it wasn't in the model's optimal range. Anyone panicking because of the NAM really needs to relax. NAM post 48 is like the GFS post 96 (or whatever arbitrary hour you like). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I really don't agree at all. Many times the ensembles have insisted on something other than what the operational runs showed. I will stick with the operational runs. I look at the ensembles as well, but when the operational runs insist on such a solution from almost all operational models, there is usually a reason. The ensembles are run at lower resolution as far as I understand and that may explain why they don't see the closer to coast scenario. Im not comparing anything, im giving you the rundown on what show what. when an ensemble mean is at large with its op, something is a skew, and we have seen this winter the euro ensembles school the op, along with the gefs. THey exist for a reason. Secondly, while the ggem and euro were miller A last night, the ggem did it in a whole new way and trended much more towards a hybrid at H5 and the ukmet now has an offshore solution and is also more like a hybrid not taking its H5 energy to the gom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Any good analogs for west of I-95 and inland areas? There are several. Many of the 'near miss' storms favor inland locations from along I-81 on westward. Despite the recent heavy snows along the coast, in the end climatology usually wins. I am not saying it is definite rain, but people need to keep climatology in mind. While yes it snows where it wants to snows (called weather patterns), but this time around it is a bit different with an unfavorable 50/50 low position/high/unfavorable blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z NAM looks like yesterday's 12z EURO. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 someone said EE rule so lets use the real eta, not the nam. And use the NAM past 48 hours to prove anything at your own peril. As to euro, its an outliar to its ensembles. Right now all options are on the table, but clearly changes are occuring against the Miller A euro solution. Its not so much where the nam is at 84...it is where it is headed at 48, within its good timeframe. The nam would likely be among the most warm west amped, so take heart. But if you really believe the GFS, I think you are in trouble. Lets find a way to get the Euro colder and further east with the high in a better position. That is your best shot here if you are in the coastal plain. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 858 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011 RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT OVER THE WEST WHERE AN UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF BY THU/D5 AND SHOW MUCH MORE SPREAD OVER THE EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK AS RIDGING SURGES UPSTREAM INTO EASTERN ALASKA. FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EAST COAST WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE 06Z GFS/GEFS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT STRETCH OF RUNS WITH A FASTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE GEFS MEAN... BUT EVEN THE MEAN IS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS AHEAD OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS WITH ONGOING CONTINUITY. BY WED/D4... THE 00Z UKMET POSITIONS THE LOW QUITE NICELY BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF... WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER WEST BUT TRENDING A BIT TO THE EAST RECENTLY... AND THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... WHICH HAS BEEN EITHER OFFSHORE OR JUST ALONG THE COAST IN RECENT RUNS. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO AN INLAND RUNNER AND TRACKS EVEN FARTHER WEST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LIKELY WITH A STRONG PUSH OF RELATIVELY MILD ATLANTIC AIR TOWARD THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM MAKING FOR QUITE A MESS FROM I-81 EASTWARD... BUT THE FORECAST RAIN/SNOW LINE... AND PROBABLY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AREA TOO... WILL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD CLOSER TO THE COAST. SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY SLOWLY BUT STEADILY. NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD DIVE DOWN FROM CANADA AFTER SPILLING OVER THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING. 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BUT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED STRONGER AS WELL. A BLEND OF BOTH SHOULD FIT THE BILL FOR NOW. END RESULT IS LIKELY YET ANOTHER COLD PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH. FRACASSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I really don't agree at all. Many times the ensembles have insisted on something other than what the operational runs showed. I will stick with the operational runs. I look at the ensembles as well, but when the operational runs insist on such a solution from almost all operational models, there is usually a reason. The ensembles are run at lower resolution as far as I understand and that may explain why they don't see the closer to coast scenario. Most of the time if the ensembles are east of the op run, the op run follows or if the ensembles are west, it follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Good catch. You are correct. The surface low placement is virtually the same. The 12z Euro yesterday gave me two feet of snow. 12z NAM looks like yesterday's 12z EURO. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Its not so much where the nam is at 84...it is where it is headed at 48, within its good timeframe. The nam would likely be among the most warm west amped, so take heart. But if you really believe the GFS, I think you are in trouble. Lets find a way to get the Euro colder and further east with the high in a better position. That is your best shot here if you are in the coastal plain. GEFS,GGEM ensembles,SREF, ETA,RSM and Euro ensemble members are all east. Euro ensembles don't agree at all with the op run. They are much colder. That's a red flag right there that the Euro might be too wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Most of the time if the ensembles are east of the op run, the op run follows or if the ensembles are west, it follows. But you will also usually see the ensembles east of the operational due to their lower resolution usually resulting in a slightly weaker surface low and less amplification. The ensemble rule only works when they are west of the operational in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Odds are the 12Z NAM is too wrapped up but we need it ALOT less wrapped than that, so we'd better hope its amped up about 150 miles-200 miles too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Getting close to 1,000 posts. Might be time to start a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You really have to expect the GFS to jump to the other solutions within the next 5 runs. I said last night that coastal sections have to worry....hopefully Washington DC, to Allentown to Hartford don't have to worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Its not so much where the nam is at 84...it is where it is headed at 48, within its good timeframe. The nam would likely be among the most warm west amped, so take heart. But if you really believe the GFS, I think you are in trouble. Lets find a way to get the Euro colder and further east with the high in a better position. That is your best shot here if you are in the coastal plain. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 858 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011 FRACASSO HPC follows the continuity rule so that they are not flipping their forecasts every run. Reading this, they like the UKMET track , a model which has been miserable with EC lows this winter, however, that solution is east of the euro by a good amount and never digs the H5 to the coast. As to them disregarding the gfs/gefs, well, if recent memory serves me correct, that didn't work so well a month ago. That being said, i agree, the gfs op is too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So...are there any clown maps this far our...I always like to share them with my friends and get them all worked up about big snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Getting close to 1,000 posts. Might be time to start a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 People do realize the Euro ensembles are much faster and a touch east of the OP euro right...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 People do realize the Euro ensembles are much faster and a touch east of the OP euro right...... Yes don't know what HPC is talking anout, the Euro Ensembles pretty much supports the GFS. Who will reign king? This is stunning to watch folks, model madness! If the GFS doesn't move the next 2 runs, then the EURO is going to fail. I'm quite skeptical though that the Euro would be that wrong though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ok but it's the Nam at 84 hours. The Nam can't even get a forecast 24 hours right. Until we all jump to conclusions, lets see the rest of the 12z runs. I am not talking about the ultimate end game yet it's too early.Just noting the other models are showing more amplitude to the pattern that the GFS. Too early to nail down a final track since it's well outside the 60 hr window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am not talking about the ultimate end game yet it's too early.Just noting the other models are showing more amplitude to the pattern that the GFS. Too early to nail down a final track since it's well outside the 60 hr window. Fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Fair enough The way this winter is going, I want to see a solution within a few days to buy it completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I definitely would not say most of the time, but sometimes they do and sometimes they don't. I have seen this go both ways. I have seen many times where the ensembles remain with a less amplified solution off shore while the operational run is more amplified and near the coast and the operational run ends up being more correct. Don't underestimate the potential for the operational models to be right and the ensembles to be wrong. Most of the time if the ensembles are east of the op run, the op run follows or if the ensembles are west, it follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The way this winter is going, I want to see a solution within a few days to buy it completely. That's been really hard this winter. I think the models will have a better handle on the storm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I personally think the GFS is going to cave on this run. Yes don't know what HPC is talking anout, the Euro Ensembles pretty much supports the GFS. Who will reign king? This is stunning to watch folks, model madness! If the GFS doesn't move the next 2 runs, then the EURO is going to fail. I'm quite skeptical though that the Euro would be that wrong though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 HPC follows the continuity rule so that they are not flipping their forecasts every run. Reading this, they like the UKMET track , a model which has been miserable with EC lows this winter, however, that solution is east of the euro by a good amount and never digs the H5 to the coast. As to them disregarding the gfs/gefs, well, if recent memory serves me correct, that didn't work so well a month ago. That being said, i agree, the gfs op is too fast. And why would they flip their forecast when there is no evidence suggesting they should? The other models are digging and doing a Miller A. GFS is a hybrid/Miller B. It is probably going to be wrong. Read the HPC rationale, it makes sense. They are pretty good you know, and the Boxing Day thing was a very rare occurence. Hey I lived in Philly 20 years and was raised in Delaware...I love when big storms happen down there. But I also know what to look for and when not to pin my hopes on something that isn't going to happen. But hey there is some good news in that the Nam and Euro Op are the western outliers. You guys are going to be close. Just plan to take a ride inland 50 miles and hang out to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes don't know what HPC is talking anout, the Euro Ensembles pretty much supports the GFS. Who will reign king? This is stunning to watch folks, model madness! If the GFS doesn't move the next 2 runs, then the EURO is going to fail. I'm quite skeptical though that the Euro would be that wrong though.... They do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's pretty comical to see all of the coastal folks trying to defend the off-shore model runs and how all the NW folks are trying to defend the inland model runs. Nobody can say for sure that one or the other is 100 % correct at this point. All options are on the table as each model has some good and bad points. It's best to compromise at this point until we get closer to the event. We'll see how this ultimately plays out. Let's just hope for the sake of everybody's sanity though that we can ALL get in on the fun with this storm, not just a certain geographical area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NAM has the suppport of the Euro for the time being at least, and to a certain extent the GGEM. The surface depiction the 12z NAM is currently showing at hr 84 may certainly be out of its "good" range but the differences occur much sooner in the 48-54 hr range. I wouldn't be suprised if the GFS made a jump towards the Euro and NAM at 12z. The GFS has gone from what looked like a Hurricane to a strung out mess in less that 24hrs. Even if you took a comprimise at this time, the big cities still get rain. I think the focus of this should now become how much rain the coastal plain actually gets and if it will be enough to cause major flooding. I'm not jumping to conclusions, just pointing out that even an in between solution is not favorable east of the DE river. Unfortuantly I was five posted the night before last for indicating that the pressure falls were further southeast than forecasted so my input is going to be limited with this upcoming event. It's hard to get an explanation when the mod you message doesn't even reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 They do? I looked at them and I don't think they do at all. They have a miller A unlike the GFS but don't amplify the trough as fast as the NAM/op Euro, resulting in a farther east solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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