Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 75 hrs is WAY more phased in south. The GFS is garbage and is about to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 People need to pull out there KU volume 1 chapter 5 book and note that a high sliding displaced to the northeast is almost never good for along I-95 to the coast. That is indeed true. If the setup ultimately involves a retreating H to the NE there will not be a heavy all snow storm for the coastal plain around phl and nyc. Don't get sucked into thinking that will work out...been there, done that. The weenie droops and the tears follow. If the setup involves differently, then it could be awesome. I like the compromise GFS Euro solution and that could nail most all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Agreed, following the Euro at 12z yesterday it had NW NJ all snow and the 0z run had a mix with more liquid than snow. It does appear as you say at this time. Gut instinct is that we end up all snow. What are your thoughts? Not sure what to think just yet. Hoping 12Z runs will perhaps, by some miracle, show a trend towards some semablance of consenses. Not going to hold my breath on that though. lol For now I am updating to my folks jury still out but expect a storm perhaps significant with snow and or rain. Yep that is a pretty gutsy call for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 75 hrs is WAY more phased in south. The GFS is garbage and is about to go down. Basing off a 75 hour Nam? Before you say this, lets see what the rest of the model suite has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 People need to pull out there KU volume 1 chapter 5 book and note that a high sliding displaced to the northeast is almost never good for along I-95 to the coast. Agree.....HP off the coast = bad news for I-95 east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The old EE rule may be showing itself again. Here is the ETA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes, it's all in the journey. That's what we are trying to figure out, is it not? I said twice that it's all about how it gets there. well yes but you said a benchmark track won't give you southeasterlies....that's not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 People need to pull out there their KU volume 1 chapter 5 book and note that a high sliding displaced to the northeast is almost never good for along I-95 to the coast. Now I agree 100% to everything you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can't believe how much more phased this is than the previous run at 78 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here is the ETA. Pulling out the ETA to disprove the Nam and Euro? Time to switch threads..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1005mb low over the Western Florida panhandle at 81 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Basing off a 75 hour Nam? Before you say this, lets see what the rest of the model suite has. LOL. Somehow I think its gonna be the opposite. Seasonal trend says the amped up wet miller a is an outlier. gfs, gefs, ggem esembes, euro ensembles, srefs are screaming colder hybrid solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 At 78, 850s are already at the PA/Md border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well yes but you said a benchmark track won't give you southeasterlies....that's not true. I said generally, or more times than not, which is absolutely true. This one could be different especially with the high sliding off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Agree.....HP off the coast = bad news for I-95 east Ok again. The snowy solutions like the GFS, GFS ensembles, euro ensembles, UKIE, GGEM ensembles, Srefs, RSM and eta are much faster and do not dig unto the gulf. The High has no time to slide east. Euro and 12z nam are focusing everything in the gulf and delaying things 24-36 hours giving the high time to slide east. It's fast vs. Slow. If the coast wants snow, they need the fast, miller b like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Pulling out the ETA to disprove the Nam and Euro? Time to switch threads..... someone said EE rule so lets use the real eta, not the nam. And use the NAM past 48 hours to prove anything at your own peril. As to euro, its an outliar to its ensembles. Right now all options are on the table, but clearly changes are occuring against the Miller A euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like high from canada coming on south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM is not good for cities. It's digging too much and holding energy back. More like euro. Much more phases system this time at 72 hrs. Much more energy in the south and phased. Much better defined surface low along the Gulf Coast. Much more like the Euro than the GFS. isn't the whole point with this not the fact that the nam/euro/whatever has a phased storm but more like what the setup is in the north as it comes up..........so then how can you say not good for cities until you are absolutely sure of the setup?????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i wouldnt trust NAM yet espically what it did with yesterdays storm, it had nyc boston nj with a foot maybe more, then slowly decreased as we got closer, hence 3 inches all set and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Now I agree 100% to everything you posted. Hahaha... typing from an Iphone, ugh. Now everyone is going to be screaming that you cannot trust the NAM after a certain hour. But look what they were hugging the SREF long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You are comparing ensembles versus operational runs. The operational runs all show Miller A, except for the GFS. someone said EE rule so lets use the real eta, not the nam. And use the NAM past 48 hours to prove anything at your own peril. As to euro, its an outliar to its ensembles. Right now all options are on the table, but clearly changes are occuring against the Miller A euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 84 hrs has a 1003mb low near Atlanta. 850 line all the way up to Trenton and Asbury Park already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 When the NAM has agreed with the Euro this season it has been a tough hand to beat. Ok but it's the Nam at 84 hours. The Nam can't even get a forecast 24 hours right. Until we all jump to conclusions, lets see the rest of the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hopefully NAM is overamped. Would be a flood for coastal plain. Big snow for Tenn. Valley.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 People need to pull out their KU volume 1 chapter 5 book and note that a high sliding displaced to the northeast is almost never good for along I-95 to the coast. You are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 People need to pull out their KU volume 1 chapter 5 book and note that a high sliding displaced to the northeast is almost never good for along I-95 to the coast. Any good analogs for west of I-95 and inland areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 12z NAM is actually further NW than the 0z Euro was with the low. The 0z Euro had the surface low over SE Georgia while the 12z NAM has the low near Atlanta at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You are comparing ensembles versus operational runs. The operational runs all show Miller A, except for the GFS. Im not comparing anything, im giving you the rundown on what show what. when an ensemble mean is at large with its op, something is a skew, and we have seen this winter the euro ensembles school the op, along with the gefs. THey exist for a reason. CMC ensembles too big time disagreement. Secondly, while the ggem and euro were miller A last night, the ggem did it in a whole new way and trended much more towards a hybrid at H5 and the ukmet now has an offshore solution and is also more like a hybrid not taking its H5 energy to the gom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The evolution of the storm is at 48-54 hours. This is the point the euro and nam stay back and dig into the gulf. You don't even have to look past that to see the result. Models are vastly different at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You are correct. It has been well covered in this thread about the HP position. No one is questioning that the HP going east is bad, but look at the solutions that are colder, they are quicker, so the HP hasn't slid off the coast, and thus the equation changes. thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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