Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Latest Wxsim based off of the 6z runs Has a SECS for the Philly burbs with timing etc as follows Snow starts toward midnight Monday temp 15.7 Periods of moderate snow from 230am thru mid afternoon Tuesday then Heavy Snow into the evening. Snow winds down by midnight with a general 8 to 10" across the area Current Snowcover 7.0" Your Wxsim has been bouncing around like a bunny rabbit that got into some chocolate covered espresso beans It had rain I believe in the AM yesterday, then midday 30" of snow, and now 8-10". On a serious note, I think this shows just how tricky of a system this is turning out to be. We likely wont get model agreement until 12Z Sunday/0Z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 are the srefs keeping that high to the north around longer and more south than previously depicted?? Not really about that. The faster solutions that do not dig into the gulf come in fast enough to keep high in a good spot. The Srefs clearly went the way to the faster side and the less gulf digging side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 nah, youre wrong. im not. i never said it would be snow with a BM track..i only took issue with your comment about SE winds. A low tracking over the BM generally does not produce SE winds here on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I was just reading the overnight stuff and I enjoyed your analysis of the Euro. I agree with you. Even though the Euro depicts a very warm situation, I have to believe that the Euro is a little too warm and with that track areas just NW of NYC would likely be snow. The Euro was much too warm with the last storm we just had. If you looked at its temperatures especially at the surface, you would have thought it would have been like 36 degrees here the whole day. Instead it was 31 with freezing rain. I understand exactly what the mets said and of course, taken verbatim, the model is showing rain, but I think what many of us non mets do is look for what we think will happen based upon what the model is depicting. It is really to early to get to specific with such a spread but it seems our area may well agian be in or near that transition zone. Previously it was the western edge of best precip this time it may be the rain snow area. Again, though, it is a bit to early to be that specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What about when that low is inland over DE and the high is well offhshore? im not. i never said it would be snow with a BM track..i only took issue with your comment about SE winds. A low tracking over the BM generally does not produce SE winds here on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 seasonal trend until its broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 All the talk is about that high sliding east. Another thing that should be talked about though is that there will be a new high in Canada building in as that high moves out. My gut instinct is that the models, especially the Euro do not yet have that sampled well enough and it will be stronger than what it is currently projecting and will build in faster if and when this thing bombs as the Euro is projecting it will. I think this is not being talked about enough in the discussions. Anyway I really think the Euro is closest to accurate at this point but it is underestimating slightly the potential for the cold air at all levels and is probably slightly too far west with the low. I really think the last run was the furthest NW solution we will see from the model. Oddly, everyone seems concerned about the surface HP pulling east, yet I have seen little to zero discussion of the lobe of the PV that is sitting just north of Maine still at H5. I find this much more important than what the HP is doing at the surface. The lobe of the PV that has broken off and is sitting there is not going to allow this system to turn out the Euro imho. Why whould a system track inside with a -NAO (east-based) and a chunk of the PV sitting just to our North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 im not. i never said it would be snow with a BM track..i only took issue with your comment about SE winds. A low tracking over the BM generally does not produce SE winds here on Long Island. fair enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What about when that low is inland over DE and the high is well offhshore? If the low is inland, how is that a benchmark track? if you mean prior to getting there...i agree...that's why i said it depends on evolution/how the storm makes it to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Agreed, following the Euro at 12z yesterday it had NW NJ all snow and the 0z run had a mix with more liquid than snow. It does appear as you say at this time. Gut instinct is that we end up all snow. What are your thoughts? It is really to early to get to specific with such a spread but it seems our area may well agian be in or near that transition zone. Previously it was the western edge of best precip this time it may be the rain snow area. Again, though, it is a bit to early to be that specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Should be interesting to see how this pans out for Rockland County in Southeast NY. My first post here... I'm a former EasternUSWXForum follower. To the founder of this site, thanks for putting it together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oddly, everyone seems concerned about the surface HP pulling east, yet I have seen little to zero discussion of the lobe of the PV that is sitting just north of Maine still at H5. I find this much more important than what the HP is doing at the surface. The lobe of the PV that has broken off and is sitting there is not going to allow this system to turn out the Euro imho. Why whould a system track inside with a -NAO (east-based) and a chunk of the PV sitting just to our North? dito and i think it eventually gets shoved out by the storm...but not as quickly, there is some resistance there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 dood you need to quit panicking.....this isnt going OTS. the way it is now, the EURO/GGEM are the furthest west or rainy solution along the coast and the GFS/SREF are furthest east. i would take HUGE swings for you to really worry. otherwise, u have too much anxiety. He's nervous, as are a lot of PA folks. The last 2 years have been pretty tough for inland areas, especially west of the Susquehanna.It's too early to panic though. There's still lot's of time and model runs before anything resembling a final outcome is to be had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it depends how it gets to the benchmark. There are not many storms that track over the benchmark and provide the coast (at least where i am) with SE winds. It isn't impossible...but what 123abc said about it being unlikely to be rain with a BM track is pretty accurate IMO. when there is an artic high retreating to your ne you sure can get screaming southeasterlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 closed surface reflection along the Gulf coast at 69 hrs this run versus open on last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 dito and i think it eventually gets shoved out by the storm...but not as quickly, there is some resistance there. I think we are starting to see some guidance pickup on this, hence the off-the-coast solutions and suppressed tracks that are starting to pop up more and more. The Euro and the others that are blowing this thing up and tracking inside are going to fold to the GFS-like solution from 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Much stronger and phased energy in the base of the trough at 69 hrs this time over TX versus last run. In mind this is further indication of a shift toward the Euro with the southern stream taking more emphasis. The GFS is just wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I do understand all the dicussion in here, I just find it difficult to believe that with all of this cold air set to be in place that a storm would plow right right through it. Usually, wouldn't we be more concerned with the very cold air suppressing everything to the south in a situation like this? What I mean is, doesn't it seem like a more offshore track seems more likely than a slightly inland one? I think last nights Op Euro is actually consistent with what you have stated. With the core of the cold air moving well out to the east, the storm does not plow through it, but rather goes somewhere to the west of the departing high. In that case there would be no cold air source to our north to supress things. Even though the track remains offshore, warm air is pulled up and over the low into our area well ahead of it. Of course that isn't the solution I want to see, When it comes to snow, call me Gordon Gekko. http://www.northshor...wx/moreSnow.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 People need to pull out their KU volume 1 chapter 5 book and note that a high sliding displaced to the northeast is almost never good for along I-95 to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 im not. i never said it would be snow with a BM track..i only took issue with your comment about SE winds. A low tracking over the BM generally does not produce SE winds here on Long Island. it doesn't produce se winds when it is AT the benchmark....but what about it's journey towards the benchmark with a rretreating high to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the NAM is basically a random number generator after 48 hours, so take it with a giant grain of salt at this range. Its way too slow, and being in the slow camp will make it very amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The SREF 87hr is just as bad as the 84hr NAM, yet everyone is flocking to them like wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the low is inland, how is that a benchmark track? if you mean prior to getting there...i agree...that's why i said it depends on evolution/how the storm makes it to the BM. a low tracking from Delaware to 40/70 would be a benchmark track I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM is not good for cities. It's digging too much and holding energy back. More like euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Much more phases system this time at 72 hrs. Much more energy in the south and phased. Much better defined surface low along the Gulf Coast. Much more like the Euro than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oddly, everyone seems concerned about the surface HP pulling east, yet I have seen little to zero discussion of the lobe of the PV that is sitting just north of Maine still at H5. I find this much more important than what the HP is doing at the surface. The lobe of the PV that has broken off and is sitting there is not going to allow this system to turn out the Euro imho. Why whould a system track inside with a -NAO (east-based) and a chunk of the PV sitting just to our North? Confluence FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it doesn't produce se winds when it is AT the benchmark....but what about it's journey towards the benchmark with a rretreating high to the north? Yes, it's all in the journey. That's what we are trying to figure out, is it not? I said twice that it's all about how it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM is not good for cities. It's digging too much and holding energy back. More like euro. The old EE rule may be showing itself again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 9Z RSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM very amped by 72 on gulf coast. In Euro camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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