Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Also, my two cents on these model solutions. I think the GFS is missing some features from the southern stream. The GFS does much better with northern stream systems than with southern stream ones. I have seen many cases recently in this range where the GFS gave too much emphasis to the northern stream system and did not give enough to the southern. This also explains why the GFS picked up first on the December 26 storm at the end because that storm was largely northern stream driven. I think this is what it is doing in this case. In addition, the Euro does better with the southern stream systems and I feel this is why it is displaying a much different scenario. This system will be more southern stream driven and this is why I believe the Euro is more correct, although I think the last Euro run will end up being the furthest west it gets with the system, and now it will trend slightly east to placing the low center along the coast, instead of inland. That combined with the Euro slight warm bias should be enough to produce a snowier solution for many people. Am I right? Who knows, only time will tell, but that is my take on this situation at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 any nam updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Also, my two cents on these model solutions. I think the GFS is missing some features from the southern stream. The GFS does much better with northern stream systems than with southern stream ones. I have seen many cases recently where in this range where the GFS gave too much emphasis to the northern stream system and did not give enough to the southern. This also explains why the GFS picked up first on the December 26 storm at the end because that storm was largely northern stream driven. I think this is what it is doing in this case. In addition, the Euro does better with the southern stream systems and I feel this is why it is displaying a much different scenario. This system will be more southern stream driven and this is why I believe the Euro is more correct, although I think the last Euro run will end up being the furthest west it gets with the system and now it will trend slightly east to placing the low center along the coast instead of inland. That combined with the Euro slight warm bias should be enough to produce a snowier solution for many people. Am I right? Who knows, only time will tell, but that is my take on this situation at this point. but the EC last nite was off the coast, its just that it totally blew up the H to the north and brought in screaming SE winds. the Track is fine imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the euro ensembles are a BM track....and show the OP remains a bit of a western outlier...... But lets recognize some model biases here: GFS: most likely too fast and not digging the storm enough Euro: most likely overphased and too deep with the storm Ensembles are between the two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I just read through a lot of the overnight postings. If the OP Euro verifies, I'm heading to Jayne's Hill to catch the snow instead of all the rain down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I just read through a lot of the overnight postings. If the OP Euro verifies, I'm heading to Jayne's Hill to catch the snow instead of all the rain down here. yup.... and if the gfs verifies, ur digging out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I do understand all the dicussion in here, I just find it difficult to believe that with all of this cold air set to be in place that a storm would plow right right through it. Usually, wouldn't we be more concerned with the very cold air suppressing everything to the south in a situation like this? What I mean is, doesn't it seem like a more offshore track seems more likely than a slightly inland one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No, it was not off the coast, it had the low tracking just inland through eastern VA, then to southern NJ, then east off the coast. That track was a part of the problem, once it went off the coast of NJ and east it turned back to snow. I think the eventual track will be slightly east of that. but the EC last nite was off the coast, its just that it totally blew up the H to the north and brought in screaming SE winds. the Track is fine imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I do understand all the dicussion in here, I just find it difficult to believe that with all of this cold air set to be in place that a storm would plow right right through it. Usually, wouldn't we be more concerned with the very cold air suppressing everything to the south in a situation like this? What I mean is, doesn't it seem like a more offshore track seems more likely than a slightly inland one? we can still have an offshore track, an ideal one at that, and still be TOO warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 any nam updates? Out to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes we can, but honestly and truthfully with the right track, that would be unlikely. we can still have an offshore track, an ideal one at that, and still be TOO warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I haven't seen the 9z SREF members yet, but just going by the standard deviations at H5, there are two distinct clusters of solutions - one GFS-like and one Euro-like. I don't think that it really helps clarify the forecast. Well the offshore camp really is not that good for pa, most of them are the arw physics package. The most bullish are to soon to be replaced rsm members. All of this being said its northern stream energy and it doesn't come into land raob range til the 12z run tomorrow. I don't know if there were 12z pacific missions planned for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I do understand all the dicussion in here, I just find it difficult to believe that with all of this cold air set to be in place that a storm would plow right right through it. Usually, wouldn't we be more concerned with the very cold air suppressing everything to the south in a situation like this? What I mean is, doesn't it seem like a more offshore track seems more likely than a slightly inland one? you need to go back and read the whole debate between nzucker and earthlight/bunch of mets about this exact thing......its in this thread...........trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 we can still have an offshore track, an ideal one at that, and still be TOO warm. No...I completely understand that, and a lot of that has to do with positioning of the HP to the north. It seems to me that a lot of our issues with this system depend on that feature quite a bit. That's really all I was trying to say, believe me I know it can rain even with that track. I've experienced that MANY times living on LI for over 30 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well the offshore camp really is not that good for pa, most of them are the arw physics package. The most bullish are to soon to be replaced rsm members. All of this being said its northern stream energy and it doesn't come into land raob range til the 12z run tomorrow. I don't know if there were 12z pacific missions planned for today. So, really the SREF didn't help at all dtk posted the recon mission tracks overnight and they aren't really much help. They're flying out of Japan for an AK storm, rather than flying out of AK to help CONUS weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes we can, but honestly and truthfully with the right track, that would be unlikely. not really....not really. .if the system is too wrapped up, we would flood with SE winds. UNLESS, the H up north gets semi trapped from the transiet 50/50L. you cant just place a L on the BM and think, its gonna be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 All the talk is about that high sliding east. Another thing that should be talked about though is that there will be a new high in Canada building in as that high moves out. My gut instinct is that the models, especially the Euro do not yet have that sampled well enough and it will be stronger than what it is currently projecting and will build in faster if and when this thing bombs as the Euro is projecting it will. I think this is not being talked about enough in the discussions. Anyway I really think the Euro is closest to accurate at this point but it is underestimating slightly the potential for the cold air at all levels and is probably slightly too far west with the low. I really think the last run was the furthest NW solution we will see from the model. No...I completely understand that, and a lot of that has to do with positioning of the HP to the north. It seems to me that a lot of our issues with this system depend on that feature quite a bit. That's really all I was trying to say, believe me I know it can rain even with that track. I've experienced that MANY times living on LI for over 30 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i dont know who to believe, all models had their ups and downs. gonna be interesting one thing i do think everyone can agree on is the euro shouldnt be that warm might be showing its warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No...I completely understand that, and a lot of that has to do with positioning of the HP to the north. It seems to me that a lot of our issues with this system depend on that feature quite a bit. That's really all I was trying to say, believe me I know it can rain even with that track. I've experienced that MANY times living on LI for over 30 yrs. yea so you know exactly what im talking bout lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 srefs individuals what a turn of events, but these are the srefs long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yea so you know exactly what im talking bout lol... Yeah thanks...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 srefs individuals Per the SREFs looks like everyone misses to the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm really starting to hate my location for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 not really....not really. .if the system is too wrapped up, we would flood with SE winds. UNLESS, the H up north gets semi trapped from the transiet 50/50L. you cant just place a L on the BM and think, its gonna be snow. it depends how it gets to the benchmark. There are not many storms that track over the benchmark and provide the coast (at least where i am) with SE winds. It isn't impossible...but what 123abc said about it being unlikely to be rain with a BM track is pretty accurate IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm really starting to hate my location for this one. dood you need to quit panicking.....this isnt going OTS. the way it is now, the EURO/GGEM are the furthest west or rainy solution along the coast and the GFS/SREF are furthest east. i would take HUGE swings for you to really worry. otherwise, u have too much anxiety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Honestly, what I have been describing as what I think will most likely happen is the third one over and the third one down. srefs individuals what a turn of events, but these are the srefs long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it depends how it gets to the benchmark. There are not many storms that track over the benchmark and provide the coast (at least where i am) with SE winds. It isn't impossible...but what 123abc said about it being unlikely to be rain with a BM track is pretty accurate IMO. nah, youre wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Out to 54 no big changes on the NAM. Euro-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Exactly, and if the OP Euro verifies and I'm not saying it will, then the high moves out the low is hugging the coast and everyone except well inland or locations with elevation has strong easterly/SE winds and is raining, maybe when the low gets to the BM it gets cold enough to snow, but the damage is done and much of the precip is over. With such major disagreement between the models I'm not sure what is going to happen, but the Euro definitely has support to be a coastal hugger/warm storm, just not sure if it ends up as warm as it shows it depends how it gets to the benchmark. There are not many storms that track over the benchmark and provide the coast (at least where i am) with SE winds. It isn't impossible...but what 123abc said about it being unlikely to be rain with a BM track is pretty accurate IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 its not that the high is there longer, its the storm gets in quicker. clearly the srefs are abandoning the euro miller a idea and the hybrid idea is gaining popularity. I like what the gfs ensembles show, that seems reasonable and they have been pretty steady this winter, calling major BS to the op on jan 11 and being totally correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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