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NYC/PHL Jan 25-28 Potential Threat Part 2


am19psu

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If the Gfs is going to cave...it will be at 12z. If it dosent...it will most likelly score a coup

Hate to say it but im pulling for it now despite awful track for dc and less upside than the other models. 6z gives dc7-9 inches lol

i hope you guys get nailed down there. The winter your having in your area sucks.

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If the Gfs is going to cave...it will be at 12z. If it dosent...it will most likelly score a coup

Hate to say it but im pulling for it now despite awful track for dc and less upside than the other models. 6z gives dc7-9 inches lol

I agree it has to be one of the next 2 runs...its hard to imagine the GFS would be THAT wrong at 84-90 hours.

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‎0z SAT JAN 22 GFS now out to 120 hrs: this run is a New way to come up with a solutuion that is so bad... so absurd...as to be called WRETCHED! ...whereas ALL other Models show the Main Low over southern AL or southern GA the 0z GFS has Low in OHIO??? OHIO ???? ...OH my god...

Any guesses as to who that is folks?

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‎0z SAT JAN 22 GFS now out to 120 hrs: this run is a New way to come up with a solutuion that is so bad... so absurd...as to be called WRETCHED! ...whereas ALL other Models show the Main Low over southern AL or southern GA the 0z GFS has Low in OHIO??? OHIO ???? ...OH my god...

Any guesses as to who that is folks?

VERY OBV to me.....

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‎0z SAT JAN 22 GFS now out to 120 hrs: this run is a New way to come up with a solutuion that is so bad... so absurd...as to be called WRETCHED! ...whereas ALL other Models show the Main Low over southern AL or southern GA the 0z GFS has Low in OHIO??? OHIO ???? ...OH my god...

Any guesses as to who that is folks?

funny thing i can just hear his voice saying that to from radio shows.

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Are the CIPS analogs in any way reliable, though, since the GFS is off on its own right now?

They could be somewhat useful since they take what the GFS shows at 96 hours and then show 15 cases of what ultimately occurred in similar patterns...none really indicate any coastal snow event and many an interior one, and generally a well interior one.

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Exactly... Gfs dosent usually make dramatic changes under 84 but neither does the euro lol

Except 12/26/10. However, I get your point. Just highlighting how both caved in the final hours as recently as a month ago on a major storm.

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Latest Wxsim based off of the 6z runs

Has a SECS for the Philly burbs with timing etc as follows

Snow starts toward midnight Monday temp 15.7

Periods of moderate snow from 230am thru mid afternoon Tuesday then Heavy Snow into the evening.

Snow winds down by midnight with a general 8 to 10" across the area

Current Snowcover 7.0"

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Since the GFS upgrade, I have noticed on several occasions that the GFS has not amplified some troughs enough

in the East.As we approached the time of the storm, it had to play catch up with the Euro.

It is a question now of which model will cave. It is my opinion that it will be the Euro. Why? For the next few days it will be unusually cold here in the N.E. The pattern has been progressive recently. Monday A.M. is forcasted to be around 10 degrees or less. Short time to moves temps. Belief here is more snow than rain........

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I was just reading the overnight stuff and I enjoyed your analysis of the Euro. I agree with you. Even though the Euro depicts a very warm situation, I have to believe that the Euro is a little too warm and with that track areas just NW of NYC would likely be snow. The Euro was much too warm with the last storm we just had. If you looked at its temperatures especially at the surface, you would have thought it would have been like 36 degrees here the whole day. Instead it was 31 with freezing rain. I understand exactly what the mets said and of course, taken verbatim, the model is showing rain, but I think what many of us non mets do is look for what we think will happen based upon what the model is depicting.

Talk about a forgotten storm...*nobody* ever mentions that one...

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I was just reading the overnight stuff and I enjoyed your analysis of the Euro. I agree with you. Even though the Euro depicts a very warm situation, I have to believe that the Euro is a little too warm and with that track areas just NW of NYC would likely be snow. The Euro was much too warm with the last storm we just had. If you looked at its temperatures especially at the surface, you would have thought it would have been like 36 degrees here the whole day. Instead it was 31 with freezing rain. I understand exactly what the mets said and of course, taken verbatim, the model is showing rain, but I think what many of us non mets do is look for what we think will happen based upon what the model is depicting.

Surpisingly cold out there. Single digits in W Essex, W Union, Bergen, Passaic, Somerset, W Middlesex, O or below NW Morris, Warren, Sussex!

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