atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the dgex has it in the gom also, but it closes it off so much it goes straight out, the nogaps like you said would go up. And that it does indeed do....and appears colder as well,,,even though its west... of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 And that it does indeed do....and appears colder as well,,,even though its west... of the GFS. west of? gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 west of? gfs? Yes its west of the GFS...and it also appears to stay colder even though its west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes its west of the GFS...and it also appears to stay colder even though its west.... well the track is takes orf to the bm is a great track, but with the high sliding off that prob wouldnt save the cities. Looks like some backend snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 heres the ggem ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 might as well line the models up as of now counting 6z runs regardless if its snow or not. models showing good off the coast track gfs,nogaps,fim,ukmet,ggem ens, euro ens, gfs ens, jma models showing hugger or just inland ggem, euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Mt Holly most interesting statement in reference to the NON GFS guidance... THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF LIQUIDEQUIVALENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THENON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE WARMER...AND WOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. Like how that sounds for the interior! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the GFS gets this event right I think we can officially say that while the upgrade did squadoosh for its cold bias its tremendously improved its ability to pick up these big storms...it already nailed the 12/26 storm, was VERY consistent on yesterday's event when other models were jumping around a bit and has been consistent on this outside of that one run where it ran the storm well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the GFS gets this event right I think we can officially say that while the upgrade did squadoosh for its cold bias its tremendously improved its ability to pick up these big storms...it already nailed the 12/26 storm, was VERY consistent on yesterday's event when other models were jumping around a bit and has been consistent on this outside of that one run where it ran the storm well inland. im curious to see what the gfs ens show, which will be out in 5 or so mins, then its off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 im curious to see what the gfs ens show, which will be out in 5 or so mins, then its off to bed. I just woke up, got home at 1am but didnt check anything then...when I saw the GFS run I figured at least one of the other models had given in but no...if anything the Euro was worse than its 12Z run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I just woke up, got home at 1am but didnt check anything then...when I saw the GFS run I figured at least one of the other models had given in but no...if anything the Euro was worse than its 12Z run was. yea it was brutal, warmth everywhere. Though, the ens trended further offshore like the ggem and gfs ens as you probably saw. All the ens guidance lines up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the GFS gets this event right I think we can officially say that while the upgrade did squadoosh for its cold bias its tremendously improved its ability to pick up these big storms...it already nailed the 12/26 storm, was VERY consistent on yesterday's event when other models were jumping around a bit and has been consistent on this outside of that one run where it ran the storm well inland. Yeah its been a heck of lot better this winter, though it gagged pretty bad on the Jan 12th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah its been a heck of lot better this winter, though it gagged pretty bad on the Jan 12th storm It seems the GEM which had been decent has gone back to its usual warm/west bias ever since we lost the -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the gfs ens take a orf/hse to the bm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looking over the msp spaghetti plots, they have 2 members that are inland. One over nyc the other on the delmarva. Everything else is off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 if it wasnt for the january 11th event, the gfs solution right now would be taken more seriously based on its performance this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the gfs ens take a orf/hse to the bm track Miller b? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the accum precip on the mean is .75-1 for balt to dc 1 phl 1.25 bos/nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GEFS def. not as amped as the 00z suite and really starting to come into line with one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Miller b? Hybrid...it forms far enough south not to screw DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Miller b? it has a sub 1016 low around hse or eastern nc, that takes a track to orf then to the bm. Further it gains latitude stronger it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Miller b? hybrid, but def. more b than a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hybrid...it forms far enough south not to screw DC. But it's not starting in deep south like nam...euro...nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GEFS def. not as amped as the 00z suite and really starting to come into line with one another. yup... and regardless of the rain the ec showed, it was quicker and didnt hold as much energy back. the trend is there for the first part we need - a quicker/faster solution. why those on ec train failed to key on that, i dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 But it's not starting in deep south like nam...euro...nogaps. not one spag plot from the deep south, unanimous agreement on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 But it's not starting in deep south like nam...euro...nogaps. No its not. I'm skeptical of the GFS solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No its not. I'm skeptical of the GFS solutions. im skeptical of the Euro solutions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 im skeptical of the Euro solutions.... id be more skeptical of the gfs solution. Its the only model showing this. Every other model has the low coming from the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 whatever happens, the gfs has this starting in 3 days or less. Something has to give the gfs, or the other models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 id be more skeptical of the gfs solution. Its the only model showing this. Every other model has the low coming from the gulf. i hear ya...but ya know, im actually more concerned with the speed of this thing first. we cant reach a snowy final solution if its slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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