ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I have the ensembles out to 72h...they are not blank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I have the ensembles out to 72h...they are not blank And what do they show? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I have the ensembles out to 72h...they are not blank huzzah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 And what do they show? lol A driving rainstorm for Greencastle PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A driving rainstorm for Greencastle PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A driving rainstorm for Greencastle PA Good one. Pretty sure that is not possible at hour 72 since the storm hasn't formed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A driving rainstorm for Greencastle PA sounds like snow here then, i have a 100 ft of elev on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Out to 96h...looks like it will be a littlemore tame than the op run which isnt a shock...how much more tame, we'll find out in a couple frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 sounds like snow here then, i have a 100 ft of elev on them Surface low is to your east also. Dont forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 sounds like snow here then, i have a 100 ft of elev on them You are terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 sounds like snow here then, i have a 100 ft of elev on them I dunno....I'd say it would be all snow at 400 feet, but 100 feet just might not cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would think the EC is serious flood threat, scary one at that for many. Still 4 5 days out, but I'm seriously starting to think the only way we get snow is with GFS type of weak low solution. I' ve seen plenty of storms with awesome tracks bring heavy rain well inland. I don't post much, but i read this board alot and i find it really baffling so many cannot see what screaming south easterly winds straight off the gulf stream will do to transient arctic air in this setup. There's nothing good at all on this solution for I95 snow lovers, will it happen like this? Doubt it, but it sure raised my eyebrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Low is due east of SBY at 108h....850 line is offshore SE of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Out to 96h...looks like it will be a littlemore tame than the op run which isnt a shock...how much more tame, we'll find out in a couple frames. Yeah not totally surprising...this a type of case where the ensembles could be mouth-watering but have a ton of spread to the left and right. The GFS Ensembles are certainly different though...there's little spread..they are all hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Low is due east of SBY at 108h....850 line is offshore SE of LI. that would be further east...how much further from the op? Granted ens usually always are further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Low is due east of SBY at 108h....850 line is offshore SE of LI. for those of us a little further south...how does it look down in the mid atlantic? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 sounds like snow here then, i have a 100 ft of elev on them Maybe I can make a really sick sand dune here on my barrier island and catch some of the snow. Maybe even start some ski slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 for those of us a little further south...how does it look down in the mid atlantic? Thanks. This is your storm, make it happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just SE of ACK at 120h. Definitely some bagginess in the isobars to the SW suggesting that there are def some amped up members that look closer tot he op run. If the ensemble mean verified though, everyone would stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 for those of us a little further south...how does it look down in the mid atlantic? Thanks. Its all snow for DC/BWI....only the southern Delmarva around SBY and down to SE VA (RIC and SEward) would have rain issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just SE of ACK at 120h. Definitely some bagginess in the isobars to the SW suggesting that there are def some amped up members that look closer tot he op run. If the ensemble mean verified though, everyone would stay snow. Hows the comparison to the 12z ensembles? They amped up considerably from the ensembles at 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it sounds close to the gfs ens mean, about 6 hrs slower and a little further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hows the comparison to the 12z ensembles? They amped up considerably from the ensembles at 00z last night. Definitely tamer than the 12z ensemble....by quite a bit. Also much faster. The 12z run at 132h had the low over ACY...hugging the coast. 00z never gets that far W and also has the low SE of ACK at 120h (same verification time as 12z 132h) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Definitely tamer than the 12z ensemble....by quite a bit. Also much faster. The 12z run at 132h had the low over ACY...hugging the coast. 00z never gets that far W and also has the low SE of ACK at 120h (same verification time as 12z 132h) Wow...now that's the best news I've heard so far tonight. I'll take it for now...lots of variance in the guidance to be expected for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'd rather have the storm amped up and take my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Its all snow for DC/BWI....only the southern Delmarva around SBY and down to SE VA (RIC and SEward) would have rain issues. Thanks, people are getting a little desperate down here, I really hope this delivers at least some snow to DC or they might come after me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 heres the 3z eta at hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the ensemble mean verified though, everyone would stay snow. Sounds like what everyone made fun of me for might be what the Euro is actually trying to show. In all seriousness, how is QPF for I-95 corridor? Big hit or moderate like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 heres the 3z eta at hr 84 That is trouble if you extrapolate that out....thankfully its the eta at 84h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sounds like what everyone made fun of me for might be what the Euro is actually trying to show. In all seriousness, how is QPF for I-95 corridor? Big hit or moderate like the GFS? Bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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