njblizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Any idea how does NEPA comes out if euro solution verifies? Most particular Scranton. Thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Any idea how does NEPA comes out if euro solution verifies? Most particular Scranton. Thanks, snow and lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 snow and lots of it. AVP might flip to rain or sleet at 108h, but its close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I have to honestly say very few storms have taken that track and delivered rain here... That has major snowstorm written all over it for western Orange County.. Yeah, it's mostly a snow track even with a high retreating. I think these high pressures tend to have some lingering cold air, and that's why the NWS and local TV stations are mostly billing this as a snow event in NYC metro. His argument is that the model is spitting out incorrect information based on track alone, which is patently false (unless he changes his argument). I completely agree with you that this is simply one piece of an evolving solution at ~4-5 days from an event, but this run is a good illustration of what can go wrong with a synoptic pattern like this. I don't think it's false...the Euro has a well-known bias. Sure, NYC would mix on that track but I don't buy a heavy rainstorm, even with the Euro track, which I also think is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 AVP might flip to rain or sleet at 108h, but its close. yea at the beginning they are, but as soon as that low gets captured they get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yea at the beginning they are, but as soon as that low gets captured they get crushed. My vacation house at 1500' in NE PA would get crushed but I don't want to lose the snowpack here at our Westchester home. It's so gorgeous outside right now, I'd take a moderate event over an inland bomb that changes us to heavy rain and destroys everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 My vacation house at 1500' in NE PA would get crushed but I don't want to lose the snowpack here at our Westchester home. It's so gorgeous outside right now, I'd take a moderate event over an inland bomb that changes us to heavy rain and destroys everything. yea it sucks, but you may have to face reality that you may see green grass next thursday, and not the grass you smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yea it sucks, but you may have to face reality that you may see green grass next thursday, and not the grass you smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah the GFS ensembles are mostly hits and misses, with a few exceptions. Many show High's stationed above the lakes. What's the exceptions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yea it sucks, but you may have to face reality that you may see green grass next thursday, and not the grass you smoke. I don't think so dude...ECM has sucked this winter. Remember the Boxing Day fiasco? There's no way we wouldn't start as snow here in Westchester...there's going to be more overrunning ahead of the low than currently depicted, and temperatures are going to be colder if the storm is sped up to Tuesday afternoon/evening. I'm not at all worried and I'm usually pessimistic on the coastal plain. We're in a snowy, cold pattern...might as well ride it until it ends. We had snow and ice the other day with a low tracking through Iowa. Once again, not at all worried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What's the exceptions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I meant if it is not a hit or a miss what is it? A hitmiss? lol. Unless you aint counting a cutter as a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I meant if it is not a hit or a miss what is it? A hitmiss? lol. Unless you aint counting a cutter as a miss. I mean inland runners. lol but other than that most are hits and misses. LOL i get it now. A miss is a better than all rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I mean inland runners. lol but other than that most are hits and misses. LOL i get it now. A miss is a better than all rain though. I was like hmmm, thought it was pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yea it sucks, but you may have to face reality that you may see green grass next thursday, and not the grass you smoke. :lmao: LOLL did too much of that today. Yeah the Euro is mainly rain, just pure warmth with nothing to help. Some snow on the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro ensembles have initialized..let's see where we get with these tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro ensembles have initialized..let's see where we get with these tonight. 945mb low on the bm...that burries zucker so he can't look out his windows to enjoy the wonderful view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 945mb low on the bm... Funny...the 6 and 12 hr panels have come up with a blank map of the united states. I think NZucker went in and tried to change the solution to tell them he had 400 ft elevation..and broke the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 When I attended Catholic school in the 1970s in Amityville, I remember 76-77 was cold, but the only winter close to this so far was 77-78. I want a snow bomb too, but snow changing to rain after an inch or two was the norm, not the exception, when I was a kid. And February was always the best month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah..the first 30 hours have come in with corrupt data or something. Bad omen if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Funny...the 6 and 12 hr panels have come up with a blank map of the united states. I think NZucker went in and tried to change the solution to tell them he had 400 ft elevation..and broke the ensembles. You're really on my case tonight, Earthlight. Seems like we might have slightly different views on this storm. I'm not really a Euro hugger this time around, mostly looking at track and seasonal persistence. I am not too worried about the high pressure slipping offshore since this is an exceptionally cold airmass, and we're in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You're really on my case tonight, Earthlight. Dude...no hard feelings, everyone has their opinion. Just poking fun at you. Don't get a nosebleed being that high up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah..the first 30 hours have come in with corrupt data or something. Bad omen if you ask me it can't get any worse than the operational run. Instead of cold rain we get an inland track and 50s and rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here's what the Euro ensembles are showing through 42 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 heres the 3z srefs at 81 hrs compared to 21z at 87 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here's what the Euro ensembles are showing through 42 hr its showing the whole us is covered in snow, pretty clear to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Here's what the Euro ensembles are showing through 42 hr To my expert eye looks pretty much like the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 87 of srefs at h5 and qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Funny...the 6 and 12 hr panels have come up with a blank map of the united states. I think NZucker went in and tried to change the solution to tell them he had 400 ft elevation..and broke the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 87 of srefs at h5 and qpf Some members looks like gfs and some like nam is what I get from that. But more members weighted to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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