jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS clown map. Beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I track storms based on synoptics and H5, not what temps models spit out at Day 5. There's a high pressure sliding east that sets up a very unfavorable flow into the system. There is no blocking to be found and the 50/50 is transient. Synoptically, it should be a warm system...which is exactly what it is on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Everyone: the key thing is the blocking pattern and the 50-50 Low. IF the ECMWF is mishandling the 50-50 Low, and the block can hold on stronger, than this is an all out blizzard. It is so important to see those two key things. Unlike the UKMET, which has locked the HP vortex and the 50-50 Low, and thus we get the blizzard. Right now, I have no idea which will be correct, so expect a ton of changes. It wouldn't shock me if we get a slop fest or a heavy rain event or an all out blizzard that kills everyone as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Its probably 80-90% rain there...the snow isn't until you get well into the Catskills. Again I'm not talking verbatim...I'm talking about what this track implies for NYC, which is a mostly snow event. Especially considering the arctic air which is always slower to exit than anticipated, as we found out with all the icing in Westchester Monday night when many people were saying rain was going to be the main precip type.. The Euro has a warm bias. What do you expect from a deep SE flow from a high and low both to our east? It's just not favorable verbatim for anyone near the coast. It doesn't matter if 850s are below 0C and we're under heavy omega. The Euro map at 120 clearly has us at -1/-2C with a 975mb low south of Long Island. It sounds decent to me, especially considering all the models are east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 its not a great track. It goes from lewes del over eastern li and over se mass just south of bos. That sounds like a good track to me. Still some time for temps to trend in our favor. We have some things in our favor. NAO, PNA and MJO, even though the NAO is east based. We have seen many storms in the past with an east based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I track storms based on synoptics and H5, not what temps models spit out at Day 5. well both on the euro say its still rain, so pick your poison. not saying the euro is right and in fact im champoning a less amped colder solution but its a big giant rain storm where you say its wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I find it hard to believe that we're going to go from -20C 850s Monday to rain Tuesday with a low pressure centered to our SE. Sounds like a bogus temperature profile, which it typical of the Euro's warm bias at this range. I'd shave 1-2C off the 850mb temps since that represents the ECM bias in terms of medium-range forecasts. Oh jesus, really? There's nothing bogus about a high pressure system being forced out by a rapidly deepening low cutting inland. The temperature profile makes sense with a ripping SE wind and a 975 mb low sitting south of JFK. There's no block to keep the high pressure in place and force the low further SE off of the coast. It's really that simple, and no thermal profile error would fix that major synoptic problem. It's a legitimate and viable solution. Is it the correct solution? We'll see. But there is absolutely no way the thermal profile is bogus because of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There's a high pressure sliding east that sets up a very unfavorable flow into the system. There is no blocking to be found and the 50/50 is transient. Synoptically, it should be a warm system...which is exactly what it is on the Euro. It just depends where the surface low tracks. I'm only worried about rain if it's west of me. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Again I'm not talking verbatim...I'm talking about what this track implies for NYC, which is a mostly snow event. Especially considering the arctic air which is always slower to exit than anticipated, as we found out with all the icing in Westchester Monday night when many people were saying rain was going to be the main precip type.. The Euro has a warm bias. It doesn't matter if 850s are below 0C and we're under heavy omega. The Eur ro map at 120 clearly has us at -1/-2C with a 975mb low south of Long Island. It sounds decent to me, especially considering all the models are east of it. if you are in westchester ny, the 850 line is north of orange county, so not sure where you see 850 temps at -1 or -2, there is a screaming easterly wind into the area before the surface low comes up and by that time its too little too late, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 if you dont like it turn off sigs in settings...problem solved,thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 All options still open it appears as we don't know for sure if the blocking will be there or not. too much disparity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I will be the first to honk on an event based on the synoptic pattern but a whole bunch of you guys have SEVERE snow goggle warnings in effect right now. There is a deeply established southeast flow into this system on the Euro. There is no blocking, the 50/50 low means nothing as it simply slides northeast without the block. The storm could track from HSE to literally the crosshairs of 40/70 and it would still be rain in that upper air and surface pattern. This is not magical meteorology, it's simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 how can you say that? the surface low can and has tracked east of you in rain events many many times It just depends where the surface low tracks. I'm only worried about rain if it's west of me. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 if you dont like it turn off sigs in settings...problem solved,thanks. some of us like seeing other people's sigs. Maybe you should think about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes this would definitely be all snow on the ECM given the track and the cold this weekend. pay no attention the High out in the Atlantic pumping warm air into the ec... seriously, face it, this weekend's cold air is a transient shot of cold without the NAO keeping our High in place. I'm, not saying it definitely will rain, but the 0z ECM is definitely a viable solution at this point. Don;t just throw it out because it doesn't show a snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 if you dont like it turn off sigs in settings...problem solved,thanks. You tell 'em!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 if you dont like it turn off sigs in settings...problem solved,thanks. uptight much? geez....OBV im a jets fan, joke went above your head. thanks for the tip though, didnt konw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It just depends where the surface low tracks. I'm only worried about rain if it's west of me. Period. Well you might be surprised then. It can rain there with a sfc low storming into LI...this solution might be too amped up, but make no mistake, if a low that strong and wrapped up comes into LI, you are getting a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh jesus, really? There's nothing bogus about a high pressure system being forced out by a rapidly deepening low cutting inland. The temperature profile makes sense with a ripping SE wind and a 975 mb low sitting south of JFK. There's no block to keep the high pressure in place and force the low further SE off of the coast. It's really that simple, and no thermal profile error would fix that major synoptic problem. It's a legitimate and viable solution. Is it the correct solution? We'll see. But there is absolutely no way the thermal profile is bogus because of the track. Well Said and 100% agree, this is going to be an inland bomb and I believe the GFS will trend towards the EURO tomorrow or tom night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I will be the first to honk on an event based on the synoptic pattern but a whole bunch of you guys have SEVERE snow goggle warnings in effect right now. There is a deeply established southeast flow into this system on the Euro. There is no blocking, the 50/50 low means nothing as it simply slides northeast without the block. The storm could track from HSE to literally the crosshairs of 40/70 and it would still be rain in that upper air and surface pattern. This is not magical meteorology, it's simple. Should people like me/ptb/Voyager be worrying? Sounds like this could be a rain for everyone event the way you're talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh jesus, really? There's nothing bogus about a high pressure system being forced out by a rapidly deepening low cutting inland. The temperature profile makes sense with a ripping SE wind and a 975 mb low sitting south of JFK. There's no block to keep the high pressure in place and force the low further SE off of the coast. It's really that simple, and no thermal profile error would fix that major synoptic problem. It's a legitimate and viable solution. Is it the correct solution? We'll see. But there is absolutely no way the thermal profile is bogus because of the track. I think it would be a wet snow here. But we'll see. I think the ECM has a warm bias and that the track is trending east. The 0z ECM was clearly east of the 12z ECM, and both the GFS and GGEM have been trending east. That's all I need to see to say it's game on for the NW suburbs. Also, the low at 120 looks well east of JFK. Given the time of year, the solution is likely too warm...with a track just offshore...probably would still bring mostly snow to hilly areas just 20 miles NW of NYC... Exactly, my friend. It would be a mix with snow just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 worrying about p-types at 4+ days out like this solution will stick the models will be playing around with that troughing along with other important synoptic features right up until this storm is about to hit like they have all season long Personally I feel like the GEFS is a good compromise between the GGEM/Euro/GFS and Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well you might be surprised then. It can rain there with a sfc low storming into LI...this solution might be too amped up, but make no mistake, if a low that strong and wrapped up comes into LI, you are getting a lot of rain. seriously. Lows track to the east all the time and it pours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well you might be surprised then. It can rain there with a sfc low storming into LI...this solution might be too amped up, but make no mistake, if a low that strong and wrapped up comes into LI, you are getting a lot of rain. Then why is it I still get over a 1' of snow, despite being further east.......strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You tell 'em!!! :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well you might be surprised then. It can rain there with a sfc low storming into LI...this solution might be too amped up, but make no mistake, if a low that strong and wrapped up comes into LI, you are getting a lot of rain. Monday night's storm was a disaster track for us and we still started with 2" of snow and then major icing. We had little antecedent cold air compared to this weekend and the surface low tracked through Iowa. Case in point: cold air generally holds on longer than expected, and dynamics take over especially when you have some elevation and are NW of a strong low pressure. Also, the ECM is much more amplified than other guidance, and each run has trended farther east. This was originally an inland cutter and now has trended to a benchmark coastal. The GFS and GGEM have both been trending east as well. What does this say to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 pretty sure a 975 low off the south tip of LI would produce dynamically driven heavy snow from NYC west in the heart of winter...regardless of what the thermal profiles show. Christmas 2002 analog FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Should people like me/ptb/Voyager be worrying? Sounds like this could be a rain for everyone event the way you're talking. you start as rain then flip to hvy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 00z ECM images 96 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hows KMDT look with this track? Still too warm back here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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