earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Congrats, Logan11 and Dendrite. Very similar to 12z, but about 50 miles west. Don't forget Central PA posters...if you haven't heard from the nearly constant noise of whining over the past two months..they have been getting screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the high pressure positioning is god awful and harbors warner air being returned from the east into the storm system. If this verified, how far inland do you go before you see all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 okay let me say that again...a 984 mb LP at the mouth of the chesapeake in the middle of winter and rain for everybody? hmm...weird...and probably going to be more snow unfortunately, there is more than just a good track needed to "create" a snowstorm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I find it weird that it's rain with a great track like that. What's weird about it? There's no supply of cold air for the majority of the area because the high pressure slides eastward without a westward oriented block. That's cut and dry stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the high pressure positioning is god awful and harbors warner air being returned from the east into the storm system. But remember...the Euro is trending faster and further east. This argues that the high has less time to slip off the coast with better dynamic cooling on the NW side of the low pressure. Sounds like a heavy wet snowstorm for the NYC burbs with rain-->snow in th Five Boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I've gotta assume most of PA is getting hammered with that setup initially your a little warm but you changeover to hvy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 QPF all of Eastern PA, Norther NJ, NY and west half of LI 2-2.5" DE and southern NJ 1.75-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Don't forget Central PA posters...if you haven't heard from the nearly constant noise of whining over the past two months..they have been getting screwed. Thank god I have a house at 1500' in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Don't forget Central PA posters...if you haven't heard from the nearly constant noise of whining over the past two months..they have been getting screwed. Still not far off from a nice soloution for some.....12z was great, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 But remember...the Euro is trending faster and further east. This argues that the high has less time to slip off the coast with better dynamic cooling on the NW side of the low pressure. Sounds like a heavy wet snowstorm for the NYC burbs with rain-->snow in th Five Boroughs. the high escaped faster this run compared to 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What's weird about it? There's no supply of cold air for the majority of the area because the area of high pressure slides eastward without a westward oriented block. That's cut and dry stuff right there. It's really hard for me particularly to think that the record cold we're getting this weekend just goes away in the blink of an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 But remember...the Euro is trending faster and further east. This argues that the high has less time to slip off the coast with better dynamic cooling on the NW side of the low pressure. Sounds like a heavy wet snowstorm for the NYC burbs with rain-->snow in th Five Boroughs. LOL, no. surface temps, 850, pick a level, all above freezing. Maybe some flakes on the back side with some sloppy seconds but any real snow is into upstate ny central pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What's weird about it? There's no supply of cold air for the majority of the area because the high pressure slides eastward without a westward oriented block. That's cut and dry stuff right there. That would be a beautiful soloution on the heels of three nights below zero. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 initially your a little warm but you changeover to hvy snow. How about Hazleton area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 initially your a little warm but you changeover to hvy snow. Tom for KMDT, can you see how much precip total and how much as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the high escaped faster this run compared to 12z.. I find it hard to believe that we're going to go from -20C 850s Monday to rain Tuesday with a low pressure centered to our SE. Sounds like a bogus temperature profile, which it typical of the Euro's warm bias at this range. I'd shave 1-2C off the 850mb temps since that represents the ECM bias in terms of medium-range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So which model will cave in the next 2 days? GFS or Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Don't forget Central PA posters...if you haven't heard from the nearly constant noise of whining over the past two months five plus winters..they have been getting screwed. If I-81 west finally gets the massive snow they've been deserving for that long, I'll gladly take an all rain event here. It's really been hell out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 pitt - unv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I find it weird that it's rain with a great track like that. its not a great track. It goes from lewes del over eastern li and over se mass just south of bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL, no. surface temps, 850, pick a level, all above freezing. Maybe some flakes on the back side with some sloppy seconds but any real snow is into upstate ny central pa I track storms based on synoptics and H5, not what temps models spit out at Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 But remember...the Euro is trending faster and further east. This argues that the high has less time to slip off the coast with better dynamic cooling on the NW side of the low pressure. Sounds like a heavy wet snowstorm for the NYC burbs with rain-->snow in th Five Boroughs. Its probably 80-90% rain there...the snow isn't until you get well into the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I find it hard to believe that we're going to go from -20C 850s Monday to rain Tuesday with a low pressure centered to our SE. Sounds like a bogus temperature profile, which it typical of the Euro's warm bias at this range. I'd shave 1-2C off the 850mb temps since that represents the ECM bias in terms of medium-range forecasts. What do you expect from a deep SE flow from a high and low both to our east? It's just not favorable verbatim for anyone near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How about Hazleton area? u shud prob not even have to write such a long sentence. something like, "how much?" and he knows for who.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 pitt - unv? Pitt .13 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 pitt - unv? :thumbsup: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 SYR-ALY through the Catskills and Poconos appear to jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I find it hard to believe that we're going to go from -20C 850s Monday to rain Tuesday with a low pressure centered to our SE. Sounds like a bogus temperature profile, which it typical of the Euro's warm bias at this range. I'd shave 1-2C off the 850mb temps since that represents the ECM bias in terms of medium-range forecasts. It might be a tick or two warm at 850, but a strong low near ACY and moving into LI will bring a ton of warm air with it. That surface high is doing its best to try and hang colder air in. This solution would be exponentially better for many of it were a bit east, or dug even a little less when it nears the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well believe it because it can easily happen I find it hard to believe that we're going to go from -20C 850s Monday to rain Tuesday with a low pressure centered to our SE. Sounds like a bogus temperature profile, which it typical of the Euro's warm bias at this range. I'd shave 1-2C off the 850mb temps since that represents the ECM bias in terms of medium-range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS clown map. Beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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