Snowtrain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 May I ask why you are glad they agree with the euro? That solution gives many a big rainstorm. check his locale stamp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Once again, interior PA/NY folks are going to be cheering for a Euro solution for big snows, they care less about rain at the coast. Coastal people want a GFS solution with snow, and potentially less snow further inland. Let the battle begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 With two inches of rain and near 40 degree surface temps, the snowcover will be wiped out and there will be flooding concerns according to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I foresee this threat thread being split sooner than normal based on regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The high pressure needs to hold its ground better and not shift so far east. Thats something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 check his locale stamp! I know he is from the leigh valley, but the GFS run would give them and us great numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 144 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know he is from the leigh valley, but the GFS run would give them and us great numbers. Unfortunately, with snowstorms its every man for themselves. If I can be guaranteed 24 inches of snow IF NYC gets 3 inches, sign me up. Same goes for coastal areas, if you are promised 20 inches of snow, but the Poconos would only get 5", would you take it? Sure would. Everyone is greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 It would be helpful when you quote conditions and QPF, you might include ABE, EWR and RDG since these are major airports and many posters would like to know what the models are spitting out for them. That would eliminate alot of IMBY posts and would not make you look like PHL was the only location to experience heavy QPF. PHL is actually in a location where many posters on this board cannot relate to because there is not many residential neighborhoods near this airport Everybody in this forum gets 2"+ of QPF. More rain toward the coast, less rain inland. I'm at work and don't have time to cater to every IMBY request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 120 should read 992mb, and obviously the last placement is 144 hrs not 1440 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Once again, interior PA/NY folks are going to be cheering for a Euro solution for big snows, they care less about rain at the coast. Coastal people want a GFS solution with snow, and potentially less snow further inland. Let the battle begin. I honestly dont see a reason why there should be a battle, especially since the inland people have been cheated out of a lot of snow this season. That plus the fact that we have an amazing winter pattern coming up in February, so people shouldnt get so stressed out over one storm. If this was the late 80s or early 90s then I would see a reason to be upset lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The high pressure needs to hold its ground better and not shift so far east. Thats something to keep an eye on. That high is going bye bye whether you like it or not given the downstream pattern. What we will need to see is more solutions like the gfs (which I'm not buying at all by the way). I still like my initial thoughts from a few days ago, when this wasnt progged to be a qpf monster yet, of snow to rain for the big cities. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Everybody in this forum gets 2"+ of QPF. More rain toward the coast, less rain inland. I'm at work and don't have time to cater to every IMBY request. Youve done more than enough already People need to employ basic reasoning skills to get a general idea and then apply some more reasoning and realize theyre stressing out over QPF output and P-type on a storm that is at least 4 days away..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I honestly dont see a reason why there should be a battle, especially since the inland people have been cheated out of a lot of snow this season. That plus the fact that we have an amazing winter pattern coming up in February, so people shouldnt get so stressed out over one storm. If this was the late 80s or early 90s then I would see a reason to be upset lol. Me either, but unfortunately, that is how things play out on these boards. Some people are too high strung, you can't control weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That high is going bye bye whether you like it or not given the downstream pattern. What we will need to see is more solutions like the gfs (which I'm not buying at all by the way). I still like my initial thoughts from a few days ago, when this wasnt progged to be a qpf monster yet, of snow to rain for the big cities. We shall see. You may be totally correct, but then the question becomes HOW FAR NW of the big cities do you need to get to stay primarily snow, or at least a snow to rain to heavy snow scenario? Is my question an elevation question? <If so what is the target elevation> or is it simply a distance question. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know he is from the leigh valley, but the GFS run would give them and us great numbers. It would only take a 25-50 mile shift east on the Euro with the high holding on a little longer to give the NW suburbs of NYC/PHL a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Changing to rain is inevitable city/coast with an event like this with the high slipping off shore. It's rare to get a storm this amped up with a high moving offshore that doesnt warm the surface with easterly winds, I don't care how cold the 850s are. We need quicker and/or weaker in my opinion to stay all snow here, and weaker doesnt produce a HECS. I'd be drooling over these runs if I lived inland though. does it matter that the ocean temps are in the low to mid 30's? how much "warm" air can be transported in with an easterly fetch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 MJO is now in phase 7, racing towards phase 8. http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Guys, it's 5 days out, solutions are going to change. Everyone needs to stop freaking out about where the rain/snow line is in the European model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It would only take a 25-50 mile shift east on the Euro with the high holding on a little longer to give the NW suburbs of NYC/PHL a HECS. Exactly. Everyone should not be going crazy right now, if it shifts 60 miles E, then PHL-NYC gets a HECS. Shifts will happen in a crazy solution like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The high pressure needs to hold its ground better and not shift so far east. Thats something to keep an eye on. im not sure I get this whole "block thing"...if one would look at the 12Z euro at hr96 and 120 you will see at the very least a quasi 50/50 and a slightly displaced closed h5 high just east of greenland...how is that not a black????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It could be like a March 93 where you get a big thump of front end snow way before the low even comes up the coast and then a changeover occurs from 25 to 50 miles NW of the cities and down to the south and east. But this far out it would be impossible to figure out where that sets up You may be totally correct, but then the question becomes HOW FAR NW of the big cities do you need to get to stay primarily snow, or at least a snow to rain to heavy snow scenario? Is my question an elevation question? <If so what is the target elevation> or is it simply a distance question. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 HPC final maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You may be totally correct, but then the question becomes HOW FAR NW of the big cities do you need to get to stay primarily snow, or at least a snow to rain to heavy snow scenario? Is my question an elevation question? <If so what is the target elevation> or is it simply a distance question. Thanks. Well, all good questions, but ones that cannot be answered at this time until we see exactly how much cold air we are going to have left, exactly how the storm develops/unfolds. how strong of an easterly wind fetch? how far inland does the marine influence get...stuff like that. Elevation ALWAYS helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Does anyone have the H5 track as per the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The high pressure needs to hold its ground better and not shift so far east. Thats something to keep an eye on. Yeah, so we'll need a slightly better upper level orientation. Surface pressure centers are not static entities. They strengthen/weaken and move based on their environment. As is, the cross-isobaric flow could help keep surface temps near or just below freezing, especially just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Does anyone have the H5 track as per the 12z Euro? http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011012112!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It could be like a March 93 where you get a big thump of front end snow way before the low even comes up the coast and then a changeover occurs from 25 to 50 miles NW of the cities and down to the south and east. But this far out it would be impossible to figure out where that sets up The Canadian reminds me a little of 93. Obviously not nearly extreme but definitely similar. Less antecedent cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I've never quite seen this before on the Euro text data..but EWR gets 1.20" QPF in 6 hours...0.62" QPF in the 6 hours before that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.