Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i dont have the true link, its just the files but here it is http://collaboration...cmdn/pcpn_type/ http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html This one? Here is the link http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 your the most important person on this board in about 20 minutes lol i figured and every other run from here till sun night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM actually looks a hair west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 big warning sign with the ggem is it has a much different H5 progression but still bombs the thing out and drags it into the delmarva then over NW jersey (hint hint, you wont find many lows that have ever gone over nw jersey). would not put much stock in this model I am guessing a coastal hugger over ACY and points northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ggem out on ewall im not sure those experimental maps go back to snow quick enough based on the ewall maps http://www.meteo.psu...0z/cmcloop.html looking at it over and over, it really backed off hard core from its diving the H5 to the GOM. wonder if its playing catch up and thinking its not like this at all tomorrow 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i dont have the true link, its just the files but here it is http://collaboration...cmdn/pcpn_type/ Semi-OT but I added that link to the pinned model links thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Regardless of what it depicts, the GGEM had major changes. It held back way less energy and was much faster/progressive. A positive trend at the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM actually looks a hair west. yea its pretty much the same, the h5 depiction did change a lot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z cmc link to compare to 00z and youll see the difference http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ggem out on ewall im not sure those experimental maps go back to snow quick enough based on the ewall maps http://www.meteo.psu...0z/cmcloop.html looking at it over and over, it really backed off hard core from its diving the H5 to the GOM. wonder if its playing catch up and thinking its not like this at all tomorrow 12z EXACTLY, major changes especially within such a short period of time. Like you I do suspect more changes at 12z tomorrow and this is most likely supported by ensembles. What is becoming obviously is models have become much more progressive and hold back less energy...which essentially is playing catch up to the GFS depiction. At what point do we start to credit the GFS more and give it more respect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks like cmc takes what the gfs is treating as a kicker and phases it with the main short wave which is why its still amped up and inland totally new solution, probably just a bogus and is really a sympton of all the energy in the northern stream and how messy this is going to be for many more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 EXACTLY, major changes especially within such a short period of time. Like you I do suspect more changes at 12z tomorrow and this is most likely supported by ensembles. What is becoming obviously is models have become much more progressive and hold back less energy...which essentially is playing catch up to the GFS depiction. At what point do we start to credit the GFS more and give it more respect? when the event is 24 hrs away and not 108 or 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 when the event is 24 hrs away and not 108 or 120 Or when the snow is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 EXACTLY, major changes especially within such a short period of time. Like you I do suspect more changes at 12z tomorrow and this is most likely supported by ensembles. What is becoming obviously is models have become much more progressive and hold back less energy...which essentially is playing catch up to the GFS depiction. At what point do we start to credit the GFS more and give it more respect? When it verifies..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 when the event is 24 hrs away and not 108 or 120 The features that are most important are evident as early as 72 hours, and all models are now showing a similar depiction at H5 as what the GFS has been portraying. The GGEM improved significantly, I suspect surface features might reflect this at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS was also keying on a tuesday event while other models had a thursday event, before they drastically changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 when the event is 24 hrs away and not 108 or 120 +1 and when it leads a guidance change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yea its pretty much the same, the h5 depiction did change a lot though. Yes seems like the surface reflection should be 100 mi further east. Either way, the high is still too east for us to be all snow. Front end thump perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 alright the euro has just init...ill update when it gets into the range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 fwiw heres the fim, looks like a ukie track...12z had it well inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 alright the euro has just init...ill update when it gets into the range Thanks, tombo - you are the man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yeah, fim shifted, and the HP is trying to hold on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 heres the remaining frame..pretty much like the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yeah, fim shifted, and the HP is trying to hold on. yup..... its gettin real serious around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Pesky HP, and a nice banana high back to the west in addition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ukie and fim bring the new HP in just as the old one is eroding away the 12z/0z shifts show just how volatile this is, and even though the ggem manages to fool itself into an inland track, its h5 are night and day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKIE is its really nice for everyone it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ukie and fim bring the new HP in just as the old one is eroding away the 12z/0z shifts show just how volatile this is, and even though the ggem manages to fool itself into an inland track, its h5 are night and day You my friend...voice of reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You my friend...voice of reason you mean lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow at the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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