ace0927 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Then back to snow at 120 hours. w/out causing too much of a stir here, how do you know its back to heavy snow? The precip can very well be over once the cold air comes back in...im not saying it wont happen, however, your assessment is flawed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 and then back to snow i believe but these black and white maps give me a pounding headache Wait for the sim radars, makes life much easier, even if it is just developmental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 feel free to stay as long as you bring good news. He just leapfrogged my seasonal total by .6 inches...he's got the hot hand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Look at the higher hgts in Canada on the ggem which helps prevent the block from moving to quickly and keeps the HP locked in longer this run, another step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS Ens mean is weaker/east than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS Ens mean is weaker/east than the OP ...Do they seriously run NOGAPS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS Ens mean is weaker/east than the OP there should be a law restricting the amount of NOCRAP posts a day...ITS A USELESS MODEL....who cares what it shows....this isnt a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Def a better run with less amplification, but the track is still not the best. Snow to rain to snow, sounds like 1993, but I was only 3 weeks old. This has a chance of being a half snow/half rain event for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 feel free to stay as long as you bring good news. This winter= one that should be remembered for a long, long, long time....I'm feeln' this one, too.....though I am weary of the lack of blocking, I pretty much expect to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM=996 mb low over NYC Oh? When did NYC move to the Jersey shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 all those in favor of instituting a nogaps restriction say I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Trended east...all that matters. JAD, the SNE crew is all hung over from today's event; thread is dead. Lol, as we prepare for the next ridiculous snow storm that pushes most of us beyond our snow fall totals beyond our wildest dreams..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 there should be a law restricting the amount of NOCRAP posts a day...ITS A USELESS MODEL....who cares what it shows....this isnt a tropical system. I actually saw someone in this threat yesterday keep pointing to the fact that because it was west and amplified that was horrible because its a progressive model, they failed to take into consideration its solution was a result of the fact it failed to develop any blocking or confluence upstream because of its progressive bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ...Do they seriously run NOGAPS ensembles? apparently they do there should be a law restricting the amount of NOCRAP posts a day...ITS A USELESS MODEL....who cares what it shows....this isnt a tropical system. for kicks and giggles man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Def a better run with less amplification, but the track is still not the best. Snow to rain to snow, sounds like 1993, but I was only 3 weeks old. This has a chance of being a half snow/half rain event for the cities. I'll take 1993 in a heart beat; net gain of 1' with an unprecedented wind\snow combo......stands to reason that is how one would "lose", this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 all those in favor of instituting a nogaps restriction say I i previously requested this..so i say YES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This winter= one that should be remembered for a long, long, long time....I'm feeln' this one, too.....though I am weary of the lack of blocking, I pretty much expect to thread the needle. I am all about the seasonal trend. this one will be close, a real nail biter, but in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The east trend was going to happen on the GGEM because the ensembles for the past 2 runs were well east of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The east trend was going to happen on the GGEM because the ensembles for the past 2 runs were well east of the op run. good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The east trend can stop now pls... What do the pros think in this one? Or can someone put a summary of all the runs up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the ggem, didnt trend east... It tho did hold less energy and is a lot faster than 12z heres 12z low positon now 0z low position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'll take 1993 in a heart beat; net gain of 1' with an unprecedented wind\snow combo......stands to reason that is how one would "lose", this season. Yeah, If I can get 6" on the front, some rain, then 3" on the back, at least I received 9" in total. So far this season "losing" is not so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ggem b & w maps FTL heavy snow to heavy rain is right. still seems way to amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the ggem, didnt trend east... It tho did hold less energy and is a lot faster than 12z heres 12z low positon now 0z low position can I have a link for that data, thats one I can never seem to find on their site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 can I have a link for that data, thats one I can never seem to find on their site i dont have the true link, its just the files but here it is http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 can I have a link for that data, thats one I can never seem to find on their site http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html This one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i dont have the true link, its just the files but here it is http://collaboration...cmdn/pcpn_type/ Here is the link http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i dont have the true link, its just the files but here it is http://collaboration...cmdn/pcpn_type/ your the most important person on this board in about 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i dont have the true link, its just the files but here it is http://collaboration...cmdn/pcpn_type/ According to that, we start as some rain and then a period of very heavy snow Philly N&W. Then back to rain and ends as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 big warning sign with the ggem is it has a much different H5 progression but still bombs the thing out and drags it into the delmarva then over NW jersey (hint hint, you wont find many lows that have ever gone over nw jersey). would not put much stock in this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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