Analog96 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I absolutely agree. A +NAO in a Nina of especially this strength is just asking for trouble, when the high is able to escape out to sea the way it has been in most model progs for this timeframe. A long fetch SE flow into the storm is majorly bad outside of the inland, elevated areas that can escape it. There is a lot of preceding cold air, which may be the one saving grace for a lot of people. We need the storm to develop faster and catch us when the high is still in place. I'm not 100% sure about all of that. The +PNA is saving us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Feb 2006 comparison is not legit aside from the big amplifying trough and the 50/50. Feb 2006 had one of the largest PNA ridges I have ever seen..this event can't get the PNA ridge building until a few days later (which I think will feature a threat...a few days after the 96-102 hr event). Still..here's Feb 2006 for comparison. 576dm heights into British Columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM has made a HUGE trend at H5 towards GFS so far...way more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 And 96.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's possible that the GEFS could lose it, too for now, but I'll bet they remain near the BM. I said in the NE thread that this reminds me of the Boxing day event, but less blocking. Score # 1. Now I'll be looking to see the EURO trend more toward a Miller B....fun, fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 226 people in this thread...must be a big snowstorm chance on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 84 hr GGEM looks more like the nam and euro than the gfs This could quite likely be the GFS error/feedback issues it normally has at this timeframe. UKMET has been lurching all over the place with storms all winter. I guess it comes down to the Euro, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 euro panels looked good for your area today i thought. You guys making up for lost time up there now? must be over 45 inches for the year, no? EURO looked great up here; I just have an issue with how deeply it digs; this won't be a Miller A. I have 50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 gfs clearly a speed outler to its ensembles but ensembles still fairly quick and def. cold. With the ukie going east and the ggem appearing less amplified, the trust is likely more amped than the gfs but no where near the ggem and prob a little less than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This could quite likely be the GFS error/feedback issues it normally has at this timeframe. UKMET has been lurching all over the place with storms all winter. I guess it comes down to the Euro, as usual. The Euro is no better than any other model so far this season in my eyes...it's been a fish out of water to a point I have never seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 226 people in this thread...must be a big snowstorm chance on the horizon. one that I cant wait you change your tune on.....you and DT are going DOWN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I just compared the GGEM 0z to the 12z and it is way more progressive and holds back way less energy. Might be a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 EURO looked great up here; I just have an issue with how deeply it digs; this won't be a Miller A. I have 50". agreed. this miller A super soaker idea will lose ground quickly. hybrid most likely and also prob not the gfs northern stream super fast solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 226 people in this thread...must be a big snowstorm chance on the horizon. All the OP runs are until inside of about 72 hrs are hot little ensemble members with a nice rack; what is of paramount importance here is that we have the GFS, EURO and GEM ensembles ofc lustered over the MB @ day 5....can't ask for much more Lets the op runs waiver from LEK fanny runner to a Bermuda blip on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM is hilarious. It trended east but it's snow to rain to heavy snow for NYC and a lot of the coast. Here is 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The Euro is no better than any other model so far this season in my eyes...it's been a fish out of water to a point I have never seen before. I second that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 gem 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM=996 mb low over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Those maps literally burn holes in my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GEM is further east and NYC get pounded with S+, before it changes to Sleet then to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ggem now hold a 1036 high about 150 miles west of where it was at 00z. ill take a ggem gfs blend please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM=996 mb low over NYC Trended east...all that matters. JAD, the SNE crew is all hung over from today's event; thread is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Those maps literally burn holes in my eyes I was thinking the same thing as I was trying to reconcile Metfan's snow to rain to snow comments.. I gave up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM=996 mb low over NYC 986 and its NE of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GEM is further east and NYC get pounded with S+, before it changes to Sleet then to rain. Then back to snow at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GEM is further east and NYC get pounded with S+, before it changes to Sleet then to rain. and then back to snow i believe but these black and white maps give me a pounding headache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Trended east...all that matters. JAD, the SNE crew is all hung over from today's event; thread is dead. feel free to stay as long as you bring good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The amplification is real..it's pretty much a given when you even take a brief gander at the upper air pattern. The timing of the 50/50...the confluent flow/etc..is yet to be determined. But this one definitely has a higher chance of coming closer to the coast than any other event. Return flows with high pressure sliding northeast make me want to fork my eyes out...they are literally nightmares for models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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