nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The purpose of the block is to enforce the cold airmass and now allow the high pressure to escape. It keeps the whole upper air pattern more favorable in our area. The lack of the block is fine with the 50/50, but guess what? The 50/50 isn't staying in the 50/50 location without the block. So as soon as it moves northeast (which it does it's a transient feature), the high pressure slips east and the amplification aloft develops a return flow of warm air into the system. Could things change? Of course..the system is still plenty far out into the medium range. But we need some pretty big upper air changes to avoid this bringing in some good amounts of warmer air. It isn't necessarily about the block though, you can just have a weak storm with a northern stream trough as the 18z/0z GFS shows.... Also, there is a strong North Atlantic ridge so I think people are grumbling too much about the lack of NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 what about previous panels of uk? does it completely miss all east, or does it go over bm and then slide east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The purpose of the block is to enforce the cold airmass and now allow the high pressure to escape. It keeps the whole upper air pattern more favorable in our area. The lack of the block is fine with the 50/50, but guess what? The 50/50 isn't staying in the 50/50 location without the block. So as soon as it moves northeast (which it does it's a transient feature), the high pressure slips east and the amplification aloft develops a return flow of warm air into the system. Could things change? Of course..the system is still plenty far out into the medium range. But we need some pretty big upper air changes to avoid this bringing in some good amounts of warmer air. correctly timed, emphasis on corectly, the feedback between the strong 50/50 and the east based NAO can be enough to keep the HP anchored in. Its all about timing, but it can work as is if the SW ejects fast or does what the gfs does and keeps it almost all northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lake affect, im gonna flip that around for ya. Still slow than the gfs Do you have the frame available before this one?Im curious where the low was as it moved up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lake affect, im gonna flip that around for ya. Still slow than the gfs night and day compared to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The boxing day event featured historic positive anomalies from Greenland stretching back west into Central Canada...this event is going to be much more about timing and luck. The big ridge out west argues for amplification...so if the 50/50 isn't timed well this is going to end up rather amplified I think. Feb. 2006 ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 correctly timed, emphasis on corectly, the feedback between the strong 50/50 and the east based NAO can be enough to keep the HP anchored in. Its all about timing, but it can work as is if the SW ejects fast or does what the gfs does and keeps it almost all northern stream. Threading the needle can be done, as we saw in Feb 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 what about previous panels of uk? does it completely miss all east, or does it go over bm and then slide east it tracks east of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Feb. 2006 ftw? Get outta my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it tracks east of the BM ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Feb. 2006 ftw? Lol, I was thinking the exact same thing and showed restraint and refrained from posting this so I am glad others decided to show no restraint at all, lol. All joking aside, it is a valid comparison imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ukie 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The boxing day event featured historic positive anomalies from Greenland stretching back west into Central Canada...this event is going to be much more about timing and luck. The big ridge out west argues for amplification...so if the 50/50 isn't timed well this is going to end up rather amplified I think. Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow Ukie went way east. Would any precip get back into our area with it tracking east like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 84 on GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Threading the needle can be done, as we saw in Feb 2006. agreed. Its either thread the needle for for our area or row row row your boat. You are obviously in a different situation where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Amen....I've seen enough of the NOCRAPS, I mean NOGAPS model. I think I pointed that out weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow Ukie went way east. Would any precip get back into our area with it tracking east like that? Probably some, but not a whole lot. That's actually good to see. The UKMET has been too far East all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Lol, I was thinking the exact thing and showed restraint and refrained from posting this but it is a valid comparison imo. You know, dbc, February 2006 had just perfect timing, pretty rare to see that again, but then again, I might be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 what about previous panels of uk? does it completely miss all east, or does it go over bm and then slide east It's weak...but scrapes the MA. Being weak is the only way this went east, with no blocking. The issues are, IMO, the configuarion of the vorticity package that is being portrayed by the GFS vs. the NAM....very unconsolidated with the GFS, and it did this a couple storms ago also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ggem to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow Ukie went way east. Would any precip get back into our area with it tracking east like that? doesnt matter man...cuz ukie been east all winter when the coastal plain is progged to be hvy snow so...this is a good thing imo regardless if it throws some measly precip back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 correctly timed, emphasis on corectly, the feedback between the strong 50/50 and the east based NAO can be enough to keep the HP anchored in. Its all about timing, but it can work as is if the SW ejects fast or does what the gfs does and keeps it almost all northern stream. Has he argued otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 84 hr GGEM looks more like the nam and euro than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 agreed. Its either thread the needle for for our area or row row row your boat. You are obviously in a different situation where you are. I'm not sure.....you folks are better suited to sustain a cut, than I......longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ensemble mean WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ensemble mean Gee....shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The purpose of the block is to enforce the cold airmass and now allow the high pressure to escape. It keeps the whole upper air pattern more favorable in our area. The lack of the block is fine with the 50/50, but guess what? The 50/50 isn't staying in the 50/50 location without the block. So as soon as it moves northeast (which it does it's a transient feature), the high pressure slips east and the amplification aloft develops a return flow of warm air into the system. Could things change? Of course..the system is still plenty far out into the medium range. But we need some pretty big upper air changes to avoid this bringing in some good amounts of warmer air. I absolutely agree. A +NAO in a Nina of especially this strength is just asking for trouble, when the high is able to escape out to sea the way it has been in most model progs for this timeframe. A long fetch SE flow into the storm is majorly bad outside of the inland, elevated areas that can escape it. There is a lot of preceding cold air, which may be the one saving grace for a lot of people. We need the storm to develop faster and catch us when the high is still in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm not sure.....you folks are better suited to sustain a cut, than I......longitude. euro panels looked good for your area today i thought. You guys making up for lost time up there now? must be over 45 inches for the year, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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