TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Exactly, people were locking in a bomb at Day 5-6, a huge mistake. This could be completely out to sea, a moderate snowfall from a Norlun, or an inland wrapped up solution. The GFS isn't totally loony given the GGEM and ECM Ensembles have generally been further east. yeah, reminds me of the ohio valley bomb from 2009 that all the models locked in at 120 hours only for it to become a norlun for philly at 0 hour. We are still in a nina with a fast flow, its been a great winter, but this whole Miller A 3 inch qpf event with no pineapple connection seemed at odds. GFS could be/may be off its rocker but wouldnt bet that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS slower and way more amp'd than the GFS, but actually doesn't look too bad with a closed low and negative tilted trough in GA by 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS slower and way more amp'd than the GFS, but actually doesn't look too bad with a closed low and negative tilted trough in GA by 108 Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS isn't far from totally missing us....we basically get all of our snow from the Norlun, and only minor events from the CCB. It's trended very far east from 6z. but its practically impossible for it to go OTS...no matter what a model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is absurd. its not like any of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS slower and way more amp'd than the GFS, but actually doesn't look too bad with a closed low and negative tilted trough in GA by 108 By 108, the storm is over on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would be shocked if this ended up missing; larger concern is p-type isses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DT, courtesy of PTB: "0z SAT JAN 22 GFS now out to 120 hrs: this run is a New way to come up with a solutuion that is so bad... so absurd...as to be called WRETCHED! ...whereas ALL other Models show the Main Low over southern AL or southern GA the 0z GFS has Low in OHIO??? OHIO ???? ...OH my god." ecmwf.int *ALERT* *ALERT* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS a joke, I remember the 942 low at the benchmark forecast for March 2001, like then it can predict storms way too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS slower and way more amp'd than the GFS, but actually doesn't look too bad with a closed low and negative tilted trough in GA by 108 looks like it's going to pass just south of Cape May by 120..warm for most that see precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This event is a large threat from you folks, points NE; GFS off it's rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks like it's going to pass just south of Cape May by 120..warm for most that see precip just going off 850s not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wasn't it just two days ago when this storm was depicted by the euro to occur day 7, then it shifted much earlier like GFS which had it in the earlier timeframe. Yet somehow GFS is the joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS a joke, I remember the 942 low at the benchmark forecast for March 2001, like then it can predict storms way too strong. NOGAPS gives you heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would be shocked if this ended up missing; larger concern is p-type isses. Strongly agree with this. I posted earlier how there's no positive height anomalies or favorable blocking within 300-500miles of the favorable location. What's there is a transient 50/50 low which isn't going to do much unless it's timed absolutely perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS look really strong but the precip seems to be lacking on the western side. It's like the EURO though with SLP and track I think. It is the NOGAPS, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Strongly agree with this. I posted earlier how there's no positive height anomalies or favorable blocking within 300-500miles of the favorable location. What's there is a transient 50/50 low which isn't going to do much unless it's timed absolutely perfectly. It's possible that the GEFS could lose it, too for now, but I'll bet they remain near the BM. I said in the NE thread that this reminds me of the Boxing day event, but less blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NOGAPS look really strong but the precip seems to be lacking on the western side. It's like the EURO though with SLP and track I think. It is the NOGAPS, though. Usually results of the poor graphic images..I like the Raleigh ones better but they do not update till after the ECM updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 with all due respect, i believe there is a block. Ideal block? certainly not. But the nao is still slightly neg as there is 570 heights east of greenland that do wedge west, more on the colder solutions less on the warmer. The 50/50 and the ridging could team up with a perfect placed sw. It's nowhere close to resembling a favorable block. Those heights your looking at over Greenland are in a very poor position if you'd like to lock in any sort of cold air for a low that is wrapping itself up. The 50/50 you're talking about will do little to stop an erosion of cold air without the block unless you have near perfect timing. Hence why I said: "at it's core this is a race between a developing low and eroding cold air." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just yesterday the NOGAPS was a wound up, interior cutting, major warmup washout. But let me guess, the GFS is still the big joke. Let me repeat, if the current trends as depicted at H5 continue to evolve in a positive manner (stronger blocking, more confluence, HP stubborn and situated to our north) I would expect to see more good in future runs. Also less emphasis on hanging energy back has been an important development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 gfs at 78 hours for those wondering what the north atlantic setup looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Strongly agree with this. I posted earlier how there's no positive height anomalies or favorable blocking within 300-500miles of the favorable location. What's there is a transient 50/50 low which isn't going to do much unless it's timed absolutely perfectly. John, Brian wants his cash Wednesday after the MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UK went east: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The purpose of the block is to enforce the cold airmass and now allow the high pressure to escape. It keeps the whole upper air pattern more favorable in our area. The lack of the block is fine with the 50/50, but guess what? The 50/50 isn't staying in the 50/50 location without the block. So as soon as it moves northeast (which it does it's a transient feature), the high pressure slips east and the amplification aloft develops a return flow of warm air into the system. Could things change? Of course..the system is still plenty far out into the medium range. But we need some pretty big upper air changes to avoid this bringing in some good amounts of warmer air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just yesterday the NOGAPS was a wound up, interior cutting, major warmup washout. But let me guess, the GFS is still the big joke. Let me repeat, if the current trends as depicted at H5 continue to evolve in a positive manner (stronger blocking, more confluence, HP stubborn and situated to our north) I would expect to see more good in future runs. Also less emphasis on hanging energy back has been an important development. I could go on all day about why the NOGAPS is pretty much useless for winter forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This next event reminds me of the Boxing day event.....I remember that the EURO tried to dig too far to the south in this range (a bias of the model), only to revert back to more of a Miller B. I think the GFS (12z) is closer to reality than the EURO......I doubt it digs as much as the 12z EURO displayed. Now, it does have room to cut because there is no NAO this go around, but I don't think it's going to bomb as far south as the EURO would lead us to believe. I posted some thoughts in the NE thread a bit ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lake affect, im gonna flip that around for ya. Still slow than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I could go on all day about why the NOGAPS is pretty much useless for winter forecasting. Amen....I've seen enough of the NOCRAPS, I mean NOGAPS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I posted some thoughts in the NE thread a bit ago... The boxing day event featured historic positive anomalies from Greenland stretching back west into Central Canada...this event is going to be much more about timing and luck. The big ridge out west argues for amplification...so if the 50/50 isn't timed well this is going to end up rather amplified I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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