jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS sets up almost a norlun like storm and still somehow finds a way to nail PHL-NYC haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 nope- on ewall its out to 102 hrs and its way easy..very weak... i wonder if that second SW is acting as a kicker (as i mentioned last night) I would rather have that than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS still has it's "cold." Wait 24 hours and it will come to reality. 102.NYC gets clipped with a trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Miller B would fit the Nina but not sure what to make of the gfs with how different it is with the euro and how it handles the H5 energy. GGEM in 45 mins will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would rather have that than rain. jk.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS still has it's "cold." Wait 24 hours and it will come to reality. Maybe this model is right and all the other models will trend towards it. Never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 jk.... Just a personal preference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well ggem and ec will be big....any hint towards a faster solution from them and big cities should get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yup, I pretty agree 100% with that at this point. Your going to get burned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Much better solution than the rain that the other models give. Who cares if its not huge, at least its all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just a personal preference. it is a good sign that gfs is way SE though...unless it turns out to be a one run hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 6-12" for everyone this run, but I highly doubt it plays out exactly this way in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would rather have that than rain. agreed 1000pct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Miller B would fit the Nina but not sure what to make of the gfs with how different it is with the euro and how it handles the H5 energy. GGEM in 45 mins will be interesting. Yeah, just incredible how the GFS and Euro set-up this event, the evolution and result are just so different. If the GFS ensembles give support then maybe the GFS is not all that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS has lost every event that we have had this season in this precise time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Miller B would fit the Nina but not sure what to make of the gfs with how different it is with the euro and how it handles the H5 energy. GGEM in 45 mins will be interesting. None of this year fits La Nina. That argument is pretty much null and void now. The GFS sends some sort of inverted trough back to the Phl-NYC corridor. Most of the area gets 0.75-1.00", but a narrow band in south Jersey into Philly gets 1.00"+. Ratios would be pretty good. Probably none of this will verify. The GFS is probably in its "Eeek, I lost the storm" phase. But the fact that it's that far offshore gives at least some credence to the GGEM ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I may be looking at the wrong run cus im a but i am not seeing the euro bomb on the gfs.. GFS would need to trend significantly slow and deeper at H5 and close off in the carolinas to resemble the euro solution... things are going to change around here, and everybody in this thread will change their tune if the euro has anything similar to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS has lost every event that we have had this season in this precise time frame. This ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS has lost every event that we have had this season in this precise time frame. Has it really "lost it"? Instead of a Miller A, its showing a Miller B and affects a small area and not the whole EC. Its not like it has a low coming out of the gulf but going way east into the atlantic. Not saying its correct, but its a little different than having a storm and not having a storm, there is a storm there, its just smaller and comes about differenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I may be looking at the wrong run cus im a but i am not seeing the euro bomb on the gfs.. GFS would need to trend significantly slow and deeper at H5 and close off in the carolinas to resemble the euro solution... things are going to change around here, and everybody in this thread will change their tune if the euro has anything similar to the gfs Yea it's just amazing how different they are at this point. One's gotta cave to the other. Hopefullly GFS will score the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Like NCEP say a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, GEM and other will yield the best solution. Which means there is a blizzard potential for NYC, but an 1993 superstorm solution is possible or even a change over to rain can not be ruled out yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 sheesh....cold air, deep trough after storm. massive ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I may be looking at the wrong run cus im a but i am not seeing the euro bomb on the gfs.. GFS would need to trend significantly slow and deeper at H5 and close off in the carolinas to resemble the euro solution... things are going to change around here, and everybody in this thread will change their tune if the euro has anything similar to the gfs Exactly, people were locking in a bomb at Day 5-6, a huge mistake. This could be completely out to sea, a moderate snowfall from a Norlun, or an inland wrapped up solution. The GFS isn't totally loony given the GGEM and ECM Ensembles have generally been further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Has it really "lost it"? Instead of a Miller A, its showing a Miller B and affects a small area and not the whole EC. Its not like it has a low coming out of the gulf but going way east into the atlantic. Not saying its correct, but its a little different than having a storm and not having a storm, there is a storm there, its just smaller and comes about differenty. It has an inverted pot of gold at the end of an inverted rainbow; that represents a loss in my book. The switch to a Miller B was a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Exactly, people were locking in a bomb at Day 5-6, a huge mistake. This could be completely out to sea, a moderate snowfall from a Norlun, or an inland wrapped up solution. The GFS isn't totally loony given the GGEM and ECM Ensembles have generally been further east. I think out to sea is off the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Like NCEP say a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, GEM and other will yield the best solution. Which means there is a blizzard potential for NYC, but an 1993 superstorm solution is possible or even a change over to rain can not be ruled out yet.. http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-march-5-2001/storm-of-the-century-of-the-week---weather-predications Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think out to sea is off the table at this point. The GFS isn't far from totally missing us....we basically get all of our snow from the Norlun, and only minor events from the CCB. It's trended very far east from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks like a big Greenland block is back in the picture too...hr 150++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DT, courtesy of PTB: "0z SAT JAN 22 GFS now out to 120 hrs: this run is a New way to come up with a solutuion that is so bad... so absurd...as to be called WRETCHED! ...whereas ALL other Models show the Main Low over southern AL or southern GA the 0z GFS has Low in OHIO??? OHIO ???? ...OH my god." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.