RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Aren't these new trends bad for the interior? no youre still getting hammered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Aren't these new trends bad for the interior? There probably won't be a sharp precip cutoff with this storm. You're in a golden spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 for the very little they are worth at 87 hours, here are the individual 21z srefs and the mean. The mean isn't bad, trough just goin negative as it crosses the mississippi river. As is expected, some gfs looking 500 maps, some euro, some ggem, and some NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There probably won't be a sharp precip cutoff with this storm. You're in a golden spot right now. Everyone's saying "Closer to the GFS" which did have a sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Everyone's saying "Closer to the GFS" which did have a sharp cutoff. just listen...your fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS 90 HRS NAM 84 hrs NAM would be slower... hr 84 nam is pretty close to the 12z euro depiction at hr 96. At h5 the nam is probably worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Everyone's saying "Closer to the GFS" which did have a sharp cutoff. closer to GFS at H5, don't take the depiction at the surface literally. This will be an expansive storm, don't worry about cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There probably won't be a sharp precip cutoff with this storm. You're in a golden spot right now. Since I've lived in the Lehigh Valley (6 years), I cannot recall a large event where the LV got hammered with snow where NYC/N NJ did not. I recall several events where the Poconos and NW NJ got hammered with snow and the LV has the dreaded sleet/freezing rain scenario. I am sure you can bring up the Superstorm 1993 event where I imagine the LV got much more than NYC and surrounding burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 84 nam is pretty close to the 12z euro depiction at hr 96. At h5 the nam is probably worse. Whats more important is the stark differences in the NAM from earlier runs, expect that progression to continue. I have a feeling the EURO will be better tonight, unless of course it continues to hang the energy back, which I find very unlikely since most models are moving away from that idea, and that alone is within the 72 hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 84 nam is pretty close to the 12z euro depiction at hr 96. At h5 the nam is probably worse. Oh i agree with this... One has a snow event already occurring and the other is well south.... 00z NAM is not even close to the GFS.... As you said it would be more in line with the ECM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Whats more important is the stark differences in the NAM from earlier runs, expect that progression to continue. I have a feeling the EURO will be better tonight, unless of course it continues to hang the energy back, which I find very unlikely since most models are moving away from that idea, and that alone is within the 72 hr range. what models? only one out so far is the nam? ukie,ggem, nogaps,euro are all different. Can they change tonight yes. But as of now its the gfs its ens and ggem ens vs everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Who said it was that intense?? ala 12z EURO at PHL 120-132 2.3" in 18 hours isn't that intense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 what models? only one out so far is the nam? ukie,ggem, nogaps,euro are all different. Can they change tonight yes. But as of now its the gfs its ens and ggem ens vs everything else. I'd put the Euro ensembles leaning toward the first grouping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh i agree with this... One has a snow event already occurring and the other is well south.... 00z NAM is not even close to the GFS.... As you said it would be more in line with the ECM.... The 0z NAM has made large strides towards the GFS and away from the EURO depiction. It no longer lags energy back, it is faster, and confluence/blocking is strong. Compare it alone to the 12z run and you will notice the huge differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Since I've lived in the Lehigh Valley (6 years), I cannot recall a large event where the LV got hammered with snow where NYC/N NJ did not. I recall several events where the Poconos and NW NJ got hammered with snow and the LV has the dreaded sleet/freezing rain scenario. I am sure you can bring up the Superstorm 1993 event where I imagine the LV got much more than NYC and surrounding burbs. You missed all the great ones. 1983, 1987, 1993, 1994 (all winter), 1996, 2003. Some incredible storms and winters. Hopefully, you'll get to see a west of 95 fall line special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'd put the Euro ensembles leaning toward the first grouping JMA too at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh i agree with this... One has a snow event already occurring and the other is well south.... 00z NAM is not even close to the GFS.... As you said it would be more in line with the ECM.... suprised you didnt mention the nogaps im on alot of weather forums and there is way too many people declaring victory for the euro/ggem camp things will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I guess I just don't have an emotional connection to this event yet...I can't develop strong interest without a semblance of positive height anomalies within 500 miles of the preferred location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 84 nam is pretty close to the 12z euro depiction at hr 96. At h5 the nam is probably worse. Does anyone really pay any credence to the 84 hr nam? Isnt that model not very reliable at that extreme range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 what models? only one out so far is the nam? ukie,ggem, nogaps,euro are all different. Can they change tonight yes. But as of now its the gfs its ens and ggem ens vs everything else. The SREF which was posted earlier is also different, it is faster with the progression and doesn't hold the energy back. The NAM is also doing that now. You can take the NAM literally for what it shows right now and say, it might be a close call for I-95 or you can say, the NAM is making huge changes each run, and what might it look like in a few more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 84 nam is pretty close to the 12z euro depiction at hr 96. At h5 the nam is probably worse. Are you saying that the nam h5 depiction is worse than the euro depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Does anyone really pay any credence to the 84 hr nam? Isnt that model not very reliable at that extreme range? Yea it usually is bunk at that range. But im just pointing it out. Its very close to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Broke out the KU books and so far found a possible analog as 12/25 to 12/28 1969; be nice I am not a pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yea it usually is bunk at that range. But im just pointing it out. Its very close to the euro. And very different from what it showed just 12hrs previously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Are you saying that the nam h5 depiction is worse than the euro depiction? the nam may be a hair faster and not hanging back as much energy. But regardless the nam at hr 84 is about to go neg tilt along the mississippi river, while the euro was still pos tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ala 12z EURO at PHL 120-132 2.3" in 18 hours isn't that intense? you're confusing qpf with storm strength. The greatest rain storms I ever saw were washed out former TC's that produced bodacious rains but had no intensity per se. They set up a great barclinic zone and dumped precip. Heavy rain/snow is not a description of intense. Large pressure drops and or convective weather is intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 FWIW Glenn seems bullish on "Heavy snow to heavy rain". Showed the GFS (I think it was anyway, whatever it was, it was all snow) and called it the least reliable model. nodded to the ECM when he said the most reliable model was bringing the storm "right up at us" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lets actually put some maps up 00Z NAM 84 HOURS 12Z EURO 96 H5 is clearly hanging back more on the euro, not as close as one thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just want to make sure this is right. When 850s are below frz but surface is about its sleet and when 850s are above and surface is below its frz rain right? for sleet the warm layer can be anywhere- it just has to be shallow and there has to be ample time for the precip to freeze. freezing rain is when the most of the column is over 32 but the surface is under 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lets actually put some maps up 00Z NAM 84 HOURS 12Z EURO 96 H5 is clearly hanging back more on the euro, not as close as one thinks yes, but looks at the tilt. The euro is pos titled in its spot, while the nam is about to go neg tilt just a hair east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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