earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Heights are still rising on the east coast at 84 hours..that movie probably has a poor ending to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 8:12 AM, earthlight said: Heights are still rising on the east coast at 84 hours..that movie probably has a poor ending to it. From the H5 heights, I'd guess the low makes landfall on eastern LI. If it bombs enough, we'd stay mostly snow...also, the 540 line is well to our south early so we'd probably see a good front end dump even if we eventually mixed with sleet or rain. I just want to keep the beautiful snowpack intact, a little mixing doesn't hurt in that regard. You should actually be the most excited for this threat because your location in NJ, west of NYC, is ideal for a solution that is close to a coastal hugger. Of course, if the GFS is closer to the actual verification, it's a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Good to see the ensembles faster and more to the east. All the models seem to be having some trouble, in their own respective ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Maybe its remembering the Blizzard of 78, or being in Texas and not actually experiencing the snow, but wind effects are an important component for me, rain or snow. Euro 10 meter winds showing 60 mph on Eastern Suffolk County 18Z Wednesday. OKX forecast skew-T BTW, tau 114, on the Op Euro is above freezing 700 mb on down, no question its rain. A little hard to eyeball, but OKX appears to have 60 knot winds below 900 mb on that forecast sounding. ECMWF free site shows 850 mb winds above 40 m/s, or about 80 knots at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 8:09 AM, nzucker said: Sounds like what everyone made fun of me for might be what the Euro is actually trying to show. In all seriousness, how is QPF for I-95 corridor? Big hit or moderate like the GFS? I do not know about the means but i have the OP and total QPF is bullish as said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not directly related to the storm threat, but the ensembles show potential for another arctic outbreak at the end of the month about 10 days from now into the first couple days of February. They are building a monster PNA ridge out west that basically goes all the way up into the arctic ocean N of Alaska. Mallow might have to break out the shorts and hammock. It has -16C 850s into New England and -12C down to DC for Feb 1st...thats pretty impressive on an ens mean 10-11 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Will, for east coast snowstorms, what placement is best for the trof to go neg. tilt, over ga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 8:29 AM, tombo82685 said: Will, for east coast snowstorms, what placement is best for the trof to go neg. tilt, over ga? Yeah somewhere around there...in the SE US E of the Mississippi. Each storm is a little different though for the exact placement of where you'd want it to happen...depends on downstream blocking and such, but on average, its a favorable spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 would you say there is a little difference between the nam and gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 visual of the euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM is likely ugly...those of you troopers staying up for the DGEX should confirm that. I'm out for the night...hoping for good changes tomorrow. Later dudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 8:49 AM, earthlight said: NAM is likely ugly...those of you troopers staying up for the DGEX should confirm that. I'm out for the night...hoping for good changes tomorrow. Later dudes. ugly would be an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 8:53 AM, tombo82685 said: ugly would be an understatement. For some of us, who have elevation, this statement is not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ggem indiv ens members at hr 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol heres the dgex at hr 114...it never brings the low past orf. Looks like it closes it off then moves it due east of orf. 2m temps are in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 6:24 AM, earthlight said: Don't forget Central PA posters...if you haven't heard from the nearly constant noise of whining over the past two months..they have been getting screwed. How does snow starved e PA do on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 9:25 AM, ptb127 said: How does snow starved e PA do on this run? you get hit good. You initially start off as some rain, then go over to snow and get hit hard on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i wonder if the gfs is going to wake up and smell reality this run, or will it take to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 9:20 AM, William said: By the time things get going on the NAM, expect that High to be over Madrid... Madrid, Maine would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 9:28 AM, tombo82685 said: i wonder if the gfs is going to wake up and smell reality this run, or will it take to 12z. I think we have our answer .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 gfs still same tune as 0z. still no where near the euro yet, but maybe some strides, by digging the trof a little more. Maybe 12z it will come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 10:05 AM, tombo82685 said: gfs trended towards it ens with a stronger coastal, still no where near the euro yet, but maybe some strides, by digging the trof a little more. Doesn't the ECM more or less originate out of the GOM region? If so it has a long ways to go on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Its even further east then the 00z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 10:06 AM, atownwxwatcher said: Doesn't the ECM more or less originate out of the GOM region? If so it has a long ways to go on the GFS... well im saying with the trof swinging down from the north. The gfs slowed it a little and amplified it a little more. You keep on amplifying it, then you will get the low spin up in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I know many do not like or value the NOGAPS but even with its progressive and SE bias ...the GFS is well east of it and much faster as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 10:12 AM, atownwxwatcher said: I know many do not like or value the NOGAPS but even with its progressive and SE bias ...the GFS is well east of it and much faster as well... its funny, cause the dgex did the samething as the nogaps, its basically a bowling ball going off orf.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 heres the 850s on the nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 10:14 AM, tombo82685 said: its funny, cause the dgex did the samething as the nogaps, its basically a bowling ball going off orf.... Nogaps starts in the GOM Later hours are not out yet but I am betting it goes right up the eastern seaboard and not OTS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 On 1/22/2011 at 10:17 AM, atownwxwatcher said: Nogaps starts in the GOM Later hours are not out yet but I am betting it goes right up the eastern seaboard and not OTS... the dgex has it in the gom also, but it closes it off so much it goes straight out, the nogaps like you said would go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 gapper takes a bm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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