am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 qpf for event 3-4" DC just west of Baltimore to PA /MD border then east to norther DE line goes south to southern 3rd of DE and then back to DC 2.5-3" north thru dead center VA in to PA east of Altoona, goes east to NYC, all of NJ, delmarva and eastern VA 1.75-2" WV/MD border northeast to NY/PA border on up[ to NE I'm not doing the rest since this everybody anyway in here Images for ECM Seems very similar to last night with the results..... And pretty much as stated earlier ..GFS op is all alone Go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Although both EURO and GFS close off the 500mb low, the way they get there is totally different. The GFS is quicker and the storm forms with more confluence ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 is it a cutoff low in the SW states or just energy? cuz that would kinda shed some light whether the EC is up to its bias, or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Please add "Ed Mahmoud's" post in last locked thread. Very useful actual sounding numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Please add "Ed Mahmoud's" post in last locked thread. Very useful actual sounding numbers. At 132, LGA is 38ºF with 850 mb right at freezing, per my AccuWx PPV raw numbers. 542 dm thickness. 1.21 inches prior 6 hours. AccuWx PPV Euro has a skew-T forecast generator, but that hasn't updated yet. If the prog was perfect, I'd guess NYC would just barely be on the wrong side of the rain snow line at this point. Some of that 1.21 inches will have fallen as snow. I can't wait to see the forecast skew-T to get a better feel. I'd like 850 to be colder, and 38ºF is usually too warm, but when it is coming down .2 inches liquid per hour, it could be snow. Assuming a forecast 5 and a half days out would be exact anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seems as though 24 hours is going to make the world of a difference.....the GFS starts the storm Tuesday morning where the Euro starts it Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z GGEM ensemble members are well east of the op. Most of them show a coastal storm. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=120&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 00z and 12z euro are similar in track of low. but 12z is a little warmer and probably more realistic given track. An intermediate solution between GEM+GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Regardless of what happens, this will be a fun storm to track because anything is possible, not to mention it could be a huge storm with loads of moisture. What I would give for the colder solutions to verify and give us another blizzard, but hope is not yet lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 qpf for LI western 1/3 2-2.25 eastern 2/3 1.75-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seems as though 24 hours is going to make the world of a difference.....the GFS starts the storm Tuesday morning where the Euro starts it Wednesday. Good post! And the fact that the colder air will be around Tue morn would help keep it colder with a more Western track. In a La Nina, faster usually works better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z GGEM ensemble members are well east of the op. Most of them show a coastal storm. http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm as i stated earlier..... looks like the GGEM op is all alone too!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im reading through all these posts and trying to figure out verbatim what the euro shows. Can a met chime in, what does the euro show verbatim in philly area? Is it just a few inches of snow then rain, or is this a major snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z GGEM ensemble members are well east of the op. Most of them show a coastal storm. http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm Amazing how many show a storm off shore, except for one over the apps, then you have the op run which parks the low in NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ..SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY-MONDAY...PREFERENCE: ECMWFTHE NAM INITIALIZES THE TROUGH APPROXIMATELY 50-75 NM TOO FAR TOTHE WEST...WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO GROWING MODEL DIFFERENCES AFTERTHE TROUGH CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THUS...ITS SOLUTION ISDISCARDED. AMONG THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...THE GFS MOVESINCREASINGLY TOWARD THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE AND CONSIDERINGITS FAST BIAS...ITS SOLUTION IS ALSO DISCARDED ESPECIALLY BY 72-84HRS...WHILE THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND TOWARD THEDETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS MOST REPENTED BY THEUKMET/CANADIAN...WHICH ARE ALSO VERY CLOSE THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLEMEANS. THUS...DUE TO CONSENSUS RECOMMEND THE ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z JMA is way east. Misses pretty much everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im reading through all these posts and trying to figure out verbatim what the euro shows. Can a met chime in, what does the euro show verbatim in philly area? Is it just a few inches of snow then rain, or is this a major snow? u must not of read correctly cuz how much for PHILLY has been been answered... mod to heavy snow, then rain, then some snow...exact details 5 days out? dont need em... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 as i stated earlier..... looks like the GGEM op is all alone too!! tomorrow it will be the nogaps..lol Well, gonna be a long weekend in here. Wont be around, heading down to DC for the weekend. ill be checking on my iphone though. Keep me updated fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 All Great Signs at this point there will be a MAJOR storm and even Bigger for More people than the Boxing day Blizzard. As far as Track and precip type goes we have seen everything but the kitchen sink thrown out there by the models so nothing will be set in stone in that regard for days. The thing that impresses me is that copious amounts of QPF most the models are spitting out. Could be one of those things where some areas see a snow, rain, snow type of scenario where others see an all snow event.. This will definitely be one that has my attention through the weekend and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Philly gets a quick 3-4" (on .7 QPF - warm at the surface) then switches to rain for the rest of the 2"+ of QPF that's left. NYC is similar but colder aloft, so the there is probably more p-type issues there. The surface goes above freezing when the precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I dont know how close to the global ensemble means they are-- those show a wet snowstorm, while the GGEM and Euro show either a mix or a driving rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 All Great Signs at this point there will be a MAJOR storm and even Bigger for More people than the Boxing day Blizzard. As far as Track and precip type goes we have seen everything but the kitchen sink thrown out there by the models so nothing will be set in stone in that regard for days. The thing that impresses me is that copious amounts of QPF most the models are spitting out. Could be one of those things where some areas see a snow, rain, snow type of scenario where others see an all snow event.. This will definitely be one that has my attention through the weekend and beyond. Im wondering if this could be like 2/26 and we get over 1 inch of rain and over a foot of snow lol. Who cares if it mixes if you still get a big snowstorm out of it lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ..SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY-MONDAY...PREFERENCE: ECMWFTHE NAM INITIALIZES THE TROUGH APPROXIMATELY 50-75 NM TOO FAR TOTHE WEST...WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO GROWING MODEL DIFFERENCES AFTERTHE TROUGH CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THUS...ITS SOLUTION ISDISCARDED. AMONG THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...THE GFS MOVESINCREASINGLY TOWARD THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE AND CONSIDERINGITS FAST BIAS...ITS SOLUTION IS ALSO DISCARDED ESPECIALLY BY 72-84HRS...WHILE THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND TOWARD THEDETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS MOST REPENTED BY THEUKMET/CANADIAN...WHICH ARE ALSO VERY CLOSE THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLEMEANS. THUS...DUE TO CONSENSUS RECOMMEND THE ECMWF. 50-75 miles? That's a pretty big error... Glad to see the HPC likes the Euro. Its ensembles are coming out in a little more than an hour, they should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Philly gets a quick 3-4" (on .7 QPF - warm at the surface) then switches to rain for the rest of the 2"+ of QPF that's left. NYC is similar but colder aloft, so the there is probably more p-type issues there. The surface goes above freezing when the precip starts. thats for the philly airport, verbatim how far north of philly do you need to be to get a major snow, how would I do verbatim in lansdale area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 thats for the philly airport, verbatim how far north of philly do you need to be to get a major snow, how would I do verbatim in lansdale area? to be accurate- who the hell knows. IMBY is frowned up here especially 5 days form an event. Don't worry about it until Monday maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Changing to rain is inevitable city/coast with an event like this with the high slipping off shore. It's rare to get a storm this amped up with a high moving offshore that doesnt warm the surface with easterly winds, I don't care how cold the 850s are. We need quicker and/or weaker in my opinion to stay all snow here, and weaker doesnt produce a HECS. I'd be drooling over these runs if I lived inland though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 HPC final VALID 12Z MON JAN 24 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 28 2011 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FINAL FRONTS/SEA LEVELPRESSURES. A WIDE SPREAD IN TIMING OF THE EAST COAST CYCLONEPERSISTS. THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT IS COUNTERED BY A WESTWARD TREND OF THE GEFS MEAN CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEASTCOAST...PLUS THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL ANDUKMET. THE CLUSTER OF GFS/GEFS ENSMEBLE MEMBERS SHIFTED TO NEARTHE COAST WITH FEWER MEMBERS OFFSHORE AND MORE ON THE COAST ANDINLAND IN NEW ENGLAND/NY BY 00Z THU 27 JAN. CONSEQUENTLY..NOCHANGES WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Changing to rain is inevitable city/coast with an event like this with the high slipping off shore. It's rare to get a storm this amped up with a high moving offshore that doesnt warm the surface with easterly winds, I don't care how cold the 850s are. We need quicker and/or weaker in my opinion to stay all snow here, and weaker doesnt produce a HECS. I'd be drooling over these runs if I lived inland though. Im posting this because some people are getting needlessly down (not you): Youre getting too down on this storm. If it happens as the Euro says, its likely 50% snow for us and even if it isnt so what-- February is going into the freezer and with the kind of AO/NAO predicted with a major stratospheric warming underway to boot, Xmas day after type storms will be much more likely than slop fests like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 50-75 miles? That's a pretty big error... Glad to see the HPC likes the Euro. Its ensembles are coming out in a little more than an hour, they should be interesting. May I ask why you are glad they agree with the euro? That solution gives many a big rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 thats for the philly airport, verbatim how far north of philly do you need to be to get a major snow, how would I do verbatim in lansdale area? It would be helpful when you quote conditions and QPF, you might include ABE, EWR and RDG since these are major airports and many posters would like to know what the models are spitting out for them. That would eliminate alot of IMBY posts and would not make you look like PHL was the only location to experience heavy QPF. PHL is actually in a location where many posters on this board cannot relate to because there is not many residential neighborhoods near this airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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