Why next week's maga event has plausibility

[Typhoon Tip]

This is a generalized overview sans annotated charts for the time being. I may attempt to do so later this evening but this is the 101 on the teleconnectors over the next week to 10 days, and there is a whopper signaled. Whether that comes to fruition as some lesser scaled vestige of an epic event, notwithstanding - so take this as an early heads up, and why that event next week has a lot of considerability.

1) +PNA: other than a single member out of the 21 member suite, the 00z computation at CPC has a heavily clustered +PNA through the first week of February. The following link will exmplify this: http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html

2) Concurrently with this, the MJO has strengthened through Phase 7, and should be nearing/entering Phase 8 by middle next week, at well above median intensity. Phase 8 MJO is the highest correlation on Eastern N/A precipitation and lower pressure events of the 8 seperately identified spatial-temporal intervals. MJO does not cause storms, but it's presence, when other factors align to positively superimpose, does assist amplitude do to planetary wave decay/forcing out of the subtropical Pacific. The wheeler diagram found here will exemplify the MJO: http://cawcr.gov.au/....Last90days.gif Keep in mind, the wave strength can sometimes collapse unexpectingly, but enough intervals of time have integrated that any such collapse would probably be less effective on the pattern down wind do to having stored that influence.

3) The NAO is the slam dunk that really ear marks Sunday through next Friday as a hugely vulnerable period for a significant event when factoring in points 1 and 2, and how they interact to feedback positively on oneanother, ...enforcing an anomalous PNAP configuration over the CONUS: http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html ...The NAO is currently differentiating toward negative phase interval again. This well clustered ensemble EOF times this new nadir pretty much fantastically right on top of next T-Thurs; could not be better timed actually.

4) Trend and seasonal trends: Trend in deterministic GFS has been gradually to capitulate toward the ECMWF. Even the NOGAPS model, with its outrageous middle range longitudinal bias over land stem-wound a low in the runs yesterday; and this was also true amid the pantheon of all deterministic model types as of the 00z runs. I am aware of the histrionic 06z GFS, which more than underscores all this with at or above historic achievement. Oh yes, and seasonally, it seems - affectation only - as though the models are doing everything imaginatively possible to unravel these respective events, yet they go on to finding a way to verify. This is a bonanza for the storm denizens, and a frustration in other years - sometimes you get lucky.

Profiling the event really cannot be performed with much certitude at this time lead, but sufficed it is to say ... this is about the best example of teleconnector convergence I have ever seen since I coined that phrase. Any one of these facts in points 1-3 could contribute to producing a storm on the East Coast, if the other 2 are not overly damping. Here, however, all 3, and all 3 are heavily signaled across multi-nightly computions at both the CPC and CDC agencies.

I will mention that we are entering the best time of year when dynamics can compensate for warmth in the low levels. I will also say that the high retreating seaward is a bit problematic for P-type along the I-95 corridor from RIC to PWM really. However, anomalous antecedent cold and initial superior damming structure in the PP are a couple of circumstance that are masked by that high slipping eastward, and the appeal that gives as warming the coastal plain. Last Tuesday just taught us - yet again - that high slipping east is not an automatic conversion away from winter p-types, particularly when you intitially have the damn and 0F DPs in place! What I found spectacular about the 00z ECM run is how it does show dynamics eroding the 540 thickness contour like the blood of one of Sigourney Weaver's "Aliens". Low level cold thickness and dynamics team up in that solution to make that an epic ordeal in that solution, and the 06z GFS was really not that much different.

Snow removal would be problematic given the run up week(s) circumstance of snow with limited thaws intermingled.

Please discuss. Any tides inclusion would be appretiated.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nice thoughts John. Looking at the teleconnectors, there certainly is support for something to occur. As you have already said, what that is, is yet to be determined. Can't say much else. Once this present system is out of the way we can focus our attention to next week.

[Cold Miser]

As alway Tip, insightful (and educational for us lesser knowledged on the subject).

Hoping for a "mega" non-wet event.

[mahk_webstah]

Oh so fun and educating to read this.

Re the PNA, HPC said the Euro was chopping the top of it off, but that they didn't believe that so they are supporting a nice longitudinity (lol).

Does the reemergence of the -NAO cause this storm to slow down? Especially given our progressive tendencies lately.

While this could be a stemwinder, with the NAO in descent, this would not be a pattern changer I assume...in fact we could go right in February continuing cold and snowy.

Being in Brookline helps me appreciate the challenge of snow removal. Where I live we just keep pushing it back onto the lawn. If 2 feet falls on Boston they will have a huge problem.

I have over 2 ft on the level after today. I cannot imagine what my yard will look like if this storm realizes its potential.

[Organizing Low]

nice and very informative post Tip

teleconnector convergence FTW.

i especially enjoyed point 4 and very much in agreeement......sometimes you get lucky

a headsup congrats!

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thanks, John. Great winter, great educational experience for me

[weatherwiz]

I'm feeling very good about the mid-week storm, I'm not really one to get excited for major accumulations this far out but I think this one has a pretty good chance of producing widespread warning criteria snowfall.

Another extremely negative tilt system which looks like it might close off south of us.

Think west and think big.

[COPO]

I'm feeling very good about the mid-week storm, I'm not really one to get excited for major accumulations this far out but I think this one has a pretty good chance of producing widespread warning criteria snowfall.

Another extremely negative tilt system which looks like it might close off south of us.

Think west and think big.

Maybe bigger than the 1/12 storm?

[weatherwiz]

Maybe bigger than the 1/12 storm?

Not sure if this will end up THAT big but I think this could be rather significant.

[Typhoon Tip]

Nice to see so many GFS enesmble members on board for next week.

Again, if you are in this business for the game of snow lust I wouldn't let a few wiggles W in the guidance throw you for now. The L/W lengths don't really offer much room for the GGEM type scenarios, particularly with the emerging -NAO in the time period drilling the escape latitude of the westerlies more under LI.

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice to see so many GFS enesmble members on board for next week.

Again, if you are in this business for the game of snow lust I wouldn't let a few wiggles W in the guidance throw you for now. The L/W lengths don't really offer much room for the GGEM type scenarios, particularly with the emerging -NAO in the time period drilling the escape latitude of the westerlies more under LI.

Nice disco Jonathon... I am worried about a farther west track and think the pattern does allow for it..Not to say a GGEM track will happen..but something that allows for a ot all snow scenario for SNE should be considered

[kbc360]

I truly enjoy when those that have more knowledge than myself (just about everybody) put out what's going on with different models, signals, teleconnections etc. Makes for good reading and the ability to get a feel for what could (or could not) happen, kinda gives me a warm fuzzy feeling that I've got a better handle on things than the average Joe.

[codfishsnowman]

I do feel there is going to be an epic widespread crippling snowstorm for a big chunk of the eastern sea board this winter at some point. Maybe I am crazy but I just feel it. Something maybe more similar to the Blizzard of 1899 or perhaps something like the superstorm of 1993 but with a snowier track for the coastal plain.

I am not sure that next week is the fit for this but I do feel it is coming and this could very well be the winter season that is a one in several hundred years type of occurance just like the mid atlantic winter was for them last year.

[mahk_webstah]

Nice to see so many GFS enesmble members on board for next week.

Again, if you are in this business for the game of snow lust I wouldn't let a few wiggles W in the guidance throw you for now. The L/W lengths don't really offer much room for the GGEM type scenarios, particularly with the emerging -NAO in the time period drilling the escape latitude of the westerlies more under LI.

would the reemerging -NAO create more confluence and hold the high in longer? Not that I want too much of that up here, but I does loves my peeps in far sne

[gravitylover]

Giggety giggety

[Typhoon Tip]

I do feel there is going to be an epic widespread crippling snowstorm for a big chunk of the eastern sea board this winter at some point. Maybe I am crazy but I just feel it. Something maybe more similar to the Blizzard of 1899 or perhaps something like the superstorm of 1993 but with a snowier track for the coastal plain.

I am not sure that next week is the fit for this but I do feel it is coming and this could very well be the winter season that is a one in several hundred years type of occurance just like the mid atlantic winter was for them last year.

It's been an interesting year so far. Decent turnouts with poorer modeling performances leading, offering unique forecasting challenges. This season trials the men from the boys - so to speak. You can't go by the models verbatim. They are persistently shimmering bigger events, then playing the damping/losing game - not unlike the 18z and 00z GFS tonight. Even the NAM suffers. Look at today's event - 2 runs ago and we had dim sun with a virga and flurries deal, but only after 3 cycles of a big event, only to have it come back in the last 2 frames with at least a moderate event. Moderate appears to have verified. It is almost as though if it is there at a model run, you'd better do your diligence to decide if it is feasible, because if it is, it is likely to come back.

The potential is there but the timing has to be perfect for that "storm" like you describe.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The historic cold preceeding this event is also going to displace the marine layer farther out than where it normally would be, so there is going to be a lag between the onset of east winds and the advection inland of warmer temps.

[Organizing Low]

The historic cold preceeding this event is also going to displace the marine layer farther out than where it normally would be, so there is going to be a lag between the onset of east winds and the advection inland of warmer temps.

well thats interesting.....any experience in this previously? how much difference does it make?

[40/70 Benchmark]

well thats interesting.....any experience in this previously? how much difference does it make?

Probably buy like a couple of hours....

[dryslot]

Good write up Tip, looks like we are ripe for another KU up here............

[HoarfrostHubb]

The historic cold preceeding this event is also going to displace the marine layer farther out than where it normally would be, so there is going to be a lag between the onset of east winds and the advection inland of warmer temps.

Good call, as this is mentioned in this morning's AFD

ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS NRN GULF SFC LOW DVLPMNT BY 18Z TUE MOVING NEWD

THRU THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z WED...AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND ACRS THE

ISLANDS AND CAPE BY 6-12Z THURS. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE GRIP OF

THE EWD RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH IN KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE

SFC. NOTABLY WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...AND DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL

MOVEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATORY COASTAL STORM...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO

SCOUR OUT COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW

ENGLAND...PSBLY DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP.

[Typhoon Tip]

Good call, as this is mentioned in this morning's AFD

ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS NRN GULF SFC LOW DVLPMNT BY 18Z TUE MOVING NEWD

THRU THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z WED...AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND ACRS THE

ISLANDS AND CAPE BY 6-12Z THURS. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE GRIP OF

THE EWD RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH IN KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE

SFC. NOTABLY WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...AND DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL

MOVEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATORY COASTAL STORM...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO

SCOUR OUT COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW

ENGLAND...PSBLY DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP.

Bureaucracy? Not sure - but these governmental agencies that publish discussions clearly show a propensity for model reliance, and not enough Met thinking seems allowed -

[Typhoon Tip]

Quick statement for those who may have paid attention to this thread:

Heh, the U.S. models are either going to look brilliant, or suck very badly. In their defense, they are struggling inch by inch per cycle to move this back NW - then the 12z NAM came in an inch SE again

The 00z Euro … wow, one thing that has changed about this is that it can’t be a huge hit – not moving as fast as that Euro run. This thing moves from like Tennessee to western NS in 1 day! That’s like 4-6 hour storm for us. A lot of impact can be registered in a short period of time, granted – but it is kind of interesting that the earlier depictions of this were of a slower moving deal with many hours of snow/wind combination. But the translation time of this as it is closing in takes the "mega" appeal off the table here.

The GGEM was slightly SE/Colder but also moves the system through pretty quickly.

UKMET trend SE but brushes with a light event. ...Also moving at ludicrous speed.

Looks more like a 7” er to me given to how aggressively the bevy of deterministic guidance is speeding this up so much. Not sure at 48-54 hours out how we can slow this down as certain synoptic behaviors are not there for doing so. We’ll see.

The upshot is that after this storm completes its let down on the storm enthusiasts among us, the pattern turns boring in the latest determinism with limited storminess and a lot of useless cold. ...so everything is just as it should be.

[CoastalWx]

Quick statement for those who may have paid attention to this thread:

Heh, the U.S. models are either going to look brilliant, or suck very badly. In their defense, they are struggling inch by inch per cycle to move this back NW - then the 12z NAM came in an inch SE again

The 00z Euro … wow, one thing that has changed about this is that it can’t be a huge hit – not moving as fast as that Euro run. This thing moves from like Tennessee to western NS in 1 day! That’s like 4-6 hour storm for us. A lot of impact can be registered in a short period of time, granted – but it is kind of interesting that the earlier depictions of this were of a slower moving deal with many hours of snow/wind combination. But the translation time of this as it is closing in takes the "mega" appeal off the table here.

The GGEM was slightly SE/Colder but also moves the system through pretty quickly.

UKMET trend SE but brushes with a light event. ...Also moving at ludicrous speed.

Looks more like a 7” er to me given to how aggressively the bevy of deterministic guidance is speeding this up so much. Not sure at 48-54 hours out how we can slow this down as certain synoptic behaviors are not there for doing so. We’ll see.

The upshot is that after this storm completes its let down on the storm enthusiasts among us, the pattern turns boring in the latest determinism with limited storminess and a lot of useless cold. ...so everything is just as it should be.

Where do you see a 4-6 hr event? The euro is an 18hr+ event.

[Typhoon Tip]

Where do you see a 4-6 hr event? The euro is an 18hr+ event.

You may have a different resolution that I -

The PSU E-Wall site's Euro run has at 72 hours (00z Wed) an RH that is barely saturated enough for any precip to being getting down to the ground, and at hour 96 (a mere 24 later) it is < 50% with strong NW-W BL flow.

Not sure how we can pack an 18+ hour event inside of that description to be blunt.

[Typhoon Tip]

Btw, the 120-144 hour out Euro from 00z still has that interesting 'almost' look with that weak miller A and clipper entanglement.

[Damage In Tolland]

Quick statement for those who may have paid attention to this thread:

Heh, the U.S. models are either going to look brilliant, or suck very badly. In their defense, they are struggling inch by inch per cycle to move this back NW - then the 12z NAM came in an inch SE again

The 00z Euro … wow, one thing that has changed about this is that it can’t be a huge hit – not moving as fast as that Euro run. This thing moves from like Tennessee to western NS in 1 day! That’s like 4-6 hour storm for us. A lot of impact can be registered in a short period of time, granted – but it is kind of interesting that the earlier depictions of this were of a slower moving deal with many hours of snow/wind combination. But the translation time of this as it is closing in takes the "mega" appeal off the table here.

The GGEM was slightly SE/Colder but also moves the system through pretty quickly.

UKMET trend SE but brushes with a light event. ...Also moving at ludicrous speed.

Looks more like a 7” er to me given to how aggressively the bevy of deterministic guidance is speeding this up so much. Not sure at 48-54 hours out how we can slow this down as certain synoptic behaviors are not there for doing so. We’ll see.

The upshot is that after this storm completes its let down on the storm enthusiasts among us, the pattern turns boring in the latest determinism with limited storminess and a lot of useless cold. ...so everything is just as it should be.

LOL..John..it's a major hit and still coming..relax and cut yourself down

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL..John..it's a major hit and still coming..relax and cut yourself down

Hey man, I'm fine! Don't reflect your angst onto me - that ending comment I made is humor for YOUR benefit - not mine.

I just call it how I see it.

Having said that, ...I did come across the following print out:

THU 00Z 27-JAN -1.1 -2.1 1013 94 100 0.09 551 541

THU 06Z 27-JAN -1.0 -2.8 1002 95 99 0.58 545 544

THU 12Z 27-JAN -2.3 -4.8 997 90 52 0.54 536 538

THU 18Z 27-JAN -1.3 -5.6 1001 77 98 0.20 537 536

FRI 00Z 28-JAN -6.9 -4.2 1007 85 15 0.02 540 534

\

That does show at least 18 hours of activity to go with what Scott said.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hey man, I'm fine! Don't reflect your angst onto me - that ending comment I made is humor for YOUR benefit - not mine.

I just call it how I see it.

Having said that, ...I did come across the following print out:

THU 00Z 27-JAN -1.1 -2.1 1013 94 100 0.09 551 541

THU 06Z 27-JAN -1.0 -2.8 1002 95 99 0.58 545 544

THU 12Z 27-JAN -2.3 -4.8 997 90 52 0.54 536 538

THU 18Z 27-JAN -1.3 -5.6 1001 77 98 0.20 537 536

FRI 00Z 28-JAN -6.9 -4.2 1007 85 15 0.02 540 534

\

That does show at least 18 hours of activity to go with what Scott said.

After we all dig out from 12-20+ on thursday,..can you make it to the GTG in ORH on Saturday? There's a thread for it. Please try and make it.

[Typhoon Tip]

After we all dig out from 12-20+ on thursday,..can you make it to the GTG in ORH on Saturday? There's a thread for it. Please try and make it.

i'll check that gtg thread. in the meantime, the 12z GFS is definitely looking improved and more Euro-like for you