MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Is it me or does this seem strange, go to PSU e-wall and tell me if you see something totally different in the GFS model to 180hr and GFS to 384hr. Notice on the GFS 384hr model run that on panel 144hr there is a big storm where as nothing on the GFS model to 180hr It's probably still last nights GFS run since the full 384 hour hasn't completely updated yet. Tonights GFS... wow, i think whatever snow it has for us goes through about 36 hours quicker than the models last night. Guess you'd have no precip concerns anywhere when the system doesn't even dig, looks more like the snow event that just occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 -1 at KDUJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's probably still last nights GFS run since the full 384 hour hasn't completely updated yet. Tonights GFS... wow, i think whatever snow it has for us goes through about 36 hours quicker than the models last night. Guess you'd have no precip concerns anywhere when the system doesn't even dig, looks more like the snow event that just occurred. Yeah I see that now, man I feel dumb. Well the GGEM went further east along with the ukie, man this winter has been painful, the Euro is our last prayer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah I see that now, man I feel dumb. Well the GGEM went further east along with the ukie, man this winter has been painful, the Euro is our last prayer Huh? GGEM is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM goes east as well and took big steps to the GFS. Seasonal trend FTL GGEM is not east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 temp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah I see that now, man I feel dumb. Well the GGEM went further east along with the ukie, man this winter has been painful, the Euro is our last prayer Haha, nah its ok. The GGEM actually doesn't look as bad as it sounds from what i can decipher from the black and white maps posted over on the other thread. The eastern 2/3s still see the deform and the eastern half of PA look like they get cracked pretty good. So its not a monumental shift by any means, but I like to see the EWall version first to see how well it gets everyone. I don't think our more southeastern friends in here should fret about the new GGEM, thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Haha, nah its ok. The GGEM actually doesn't look as bad as it sounds from what i can decipher from the black and white maps posted over on the other thread. The eastern 2/3s still see the deform and the eastern half of PA look like they get cracked pretty good. So its not a monumental shift by any means, but I like to see the EWall version first to see how well it gets everyone. I don't think our more southeastern friends in here should fret about the new GGEM, thats for sure. The low shifted about 20miles east... Not sure what anyone is taking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM is not east. I thought it looked a tad east of what it was showing, maybe its just me, It still gives us hope, you guys know what time the Euro comes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I thought it looked a tad east of what it was showing, maybe its just me, It still gives us hope, you guys know what time the Euro comes out? 1AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM is not east. It was the initial impression they had over in the PHL/NYC thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1AM thanks man, I found it quite interesting when DT said 31 out of the 33 KU storms in the case study featured an arctic high no further than 75 degrees W. and the upcoming HP is forecasted to slide just past that which may aid the hugger or runner LP. Thats quite a statistic! maybe thats why he is going ape sh*t on GFS on his fb page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For the record....the GGEM trended towards the GFS at H5...clearly didn't translate to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For the record....the GGEM trended towards the GFS at H5...clearly didn't translate to the surface. I don't think so.. Come on man.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There is so much hope it's not funny. the forums are sorta crazy right now, I am amazed at people nitpicking details 80 hours out. Pattern looks good, setup per the models is favorable. let's see if white stuff is falling in 90 hours and all enjoy! I am hopeful, but not emotionally attached. This Winter has been like a hot bitchy girlfriend. You want to like her so much, and sometimes she gives you something good to look at, but she's still a b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The low shifted about 20miles east... Not sure what anyone is taking about. Yea, I knew it couldn't have been that far off before seeing the maps since they said it was goin over NYC. Now that I see the Ewall version its about as good as you can get for run to run continuity really. I think the only difference that I see is perhaps the heaviest axis of precip and colder temps are east a hair. Seems slightly tighter with the westward extent of the very heavy stuff. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yea, I knew it couldn't have been that far off before seeing the maps since they said it was goin over NYC. Now that I see the Ewall version its about as good as you can get for run to run continuity really. I think the only difference that I see is perhaps the heaviest axis of precip and colder temps are east a hair. Seems slightly tighter with the westward extent of the very heavy stuff. No worries. Did you see the upper air by any chance? All they're saying in the NYC/PHL is that it took steps to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKMET is fine as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Did you see the upper air by any chance? All they're saying in the NYC/PHL is that it took steps to the GFS. I have and it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For the record....the GGEM trended towards the GFS at H5...clearly didn't translate to the surface. See, I think it looks better at H5 for Western/west central PA. It looks like it closes off a little further south at 0Z. A little sooner and I think that precip blows up on the western side. I could be wrong, but.... They may be looking at something wrt their backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 See, I think it looks better at H5 for Western/west central PA. It looks like it closes off a little further south at 0Z. I could be wrong, but.... They may be looking at something wrt their backyard. Burgh, staying up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKMET is fine as well. for eastern,pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Burgh, staying up for the Euro? Have to at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Come on Euro, don't bow to the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Have to at this point is GFS still the only outlier at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM ENS well east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The Euro looks slightly east,,ughhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Did you see the upper air by any chance? All they're saying in the NYC/PHL is that it took steps to the GFS. Well, I mean I dunno if taking steps toward the GFS is necessarily the path to redemption to begin with haha. The GFS to me is unphased and too progressive and it runs the 500 low straight out way before that energy dives out of Canada. The 0z GGEM looks similar to the 12z to me. The only thing that may constitute a "shift" to the GFS is that the GGEM doesn't dig the shortwave as far south as it did at 12z. But since its not a day and a half faster than everything else it still phases with the vort coming out of Canada and ends up with pretty much the same storm track. I think the folks along and east of the 95 corridor are going to want the progressive GFS to come to fruition because if this evolves like the other models have it I just don't see how the storm tracks in a manner that doesn't give them mixing issues at some point in the storm given the pattern. That's my take anyways, i'd love to hear one of the other mets opinions in here to maybe help elaborate or critique what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Actually the Euro faired pretty well, better than it was looking earlier in its run, def alot different than the GFS thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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