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Central PA Late January thread


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Anyone see Euro QPF totals for KPIT?

Sorry for the "how much IMBY" post, but hoping to make an exception since it's the Euro and we can't easily see it. Also, much thanks to the CPa Mets who have included us in their thoughts and discussions recently, as well as have dropped by the thread.

I've lived in both Harrisburg and Williamsport, so hopefully this drills us all.

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Anyone see Euro QPF totals for KPIT?

Sorry for the "how much IMBY" post, but hoping to make an exception since it's the Euro and we can't easily see it. Also, much thanks to the CPa Mets who have included us in their thoughts and discussions recently, as well as have dropped by the thread.

I've lived in both Harrisburg and Williamsport, so hopefully this drills us all.

It's a very tight gradient depicted. I would say Pitt. falls under the .5-ish category while just a few miles SE the QPF quickly jumps to a inch plus.

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It will be interesting to see exactly how cold we do get here over the weekend compared to what the models are predicting. Does the high end up in a position more or less favorable for this to run up the coast and produce heavy snow for central PA? A little cold air damming maybe to keep us colder? Will be fun to follow and see how it begins to play out all weekend.

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It will be interesting to see exactly how cold we do get here over the weekend compared to what the models are predicting. Does the high end up in a position more or less favorable for this to run up the coast and produce heavy snow for central PA? A little cold air damming maybe to keep us colder? Will be fun to follow and see how it begins to play out all weekend.

The last i looked at the temps, had us at zero Sunday going into Monday as a low. Highs were not out of the low teens.

Imagine the temp at game time Sunday night

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What I meant by it is do we really want to see a slower life cycle? More time for WAA and mixing/rain issues. With surface high and low level cold feed not at a classic position, seems to me that a quicker occluding system cutting WAA is better...at least for where I am at.

Any thoughts on this? Going back through the ECMWF run, it looks to confirm my thoughts above. The low stacks just in time, WAA is cut and the low drifts farther East. If the life cycle slows down any further I would think we would almost be looking at an Apps runner.

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The last i looked at the temps, had us at zero Sunday going into Monday as a low. Highs were not out of the low teens.

Imagine the temp at game time Sunday night

From what I can find (I thought there was one more recent but cant find the data to prove it), last time Harrisburg had a low reported below 0 was back in January of 1994!

I could see low teens very much possible for kickoff!

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Even at 10-1 I would settle for that.:weight_lift:

Looking at GFS is it gonna start Tues around Midnite?

The 32F extends pretty far west, but everything is below freezing aloft. Probably terrible ratios, but are you really going to complain about that with 2" QPF? ;)

I can only image the big Daddy hat is coming out of the closet.:P

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There's a lot of E-W spread in the Euro ensemble H5 charts, but they're all really amplified. Whoever gets snow is going to get dumped on.

Doesn't this storm have a pretty good chance of ripping west? Doesn't seem like there's much there to push it east and more at play that could make it go way inland? Not saying that will remotely happen, but isn't a western job more realistic for this setup than the typical eastward job we've had all season?

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From what I can find (I thought there was one more recent but cant find the data to prove it), last time Harrisburg had a low reported below 0 was back in January of 1994!

I could see low teens very much possible for kickoff!

No, i pretty certain in 96 it was zero. We had deep, deep cold then.

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Doesn't this storm have a pretty good chance of ripping west? Doesn't seem like there's much there to push it east and more at play that could make it go way inland? Not saying that will remotely happen, but isn't a western job more realistic for this setup than the typical eastward job we've had all season?

With no blocking out in front, I could see anything from something west of the Appalchians to something out to sea. It is really dependent on when and where the northern stream shortwave starts digging. Really, my forecast right now is just consensus. I don't think anyone really has much insight beyond that.

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Howdy all. I'm still trying to recover from the 4.5 hour drive home last night leaving phil at Midnight and arriving at Harrisburg East Turnpike exit. WHEW. Just for 2 measly inches of snow. Anyway, State college updated discussion is a very fair assessment of what we have to work with now for this upcoming __________________ (snow/mix/rain/partly cloudy)

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD IS ON A

POTENTIAL MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD

ADVERSELY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A MODERATE

SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE EAST COAST CYCLONE EXISTS BETWEEN THE

GFS AND CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF...WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER EDGE OF

THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE. THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT IS

COUNTERED BY A WESTWARD TREND/SHIFT OF THE GEFS MEAN CYCLONE

TRACK...COMBINED WITH THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF THE CANADIAN

GLOBAL AND UKMET. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE ROCK SOLID IN

A STORM TRACK OVER THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE THAT WOULD LIKELY

RESULT IN HEAVY SNOWS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THE EC TIMING

COMPARES VERY WELL TO THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE BUT IS SLIGHTLY EAST

OF THE UKMET/GEM GLOBAL CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN

ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LOW CENTER NEAR THE VA TIDEWATER

AT F120 AND NEAR CAPE COD AT F144. PUTTING THE TYPICAL

UNCERTAINTIES ASIDE AT THIS RANGE...THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING IN

THE COMING DAYS AS IT HAS SOME OF THE CLASSIC ATTRIBUTES/ANOMALIES

THAT ARE USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS. OVERALL

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A

STORM SYSTEM...BUT OF COURSE THE DETAILS AND EXACT TRACK WILL

NEED TO BE RESOLVED.

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Makes sense. I'm not putting any hopes on this storm as it is clear this winter isn't for us. I'm ok with that as long as I dint work up a storm before it skips us mostly. Maybe this'll be different.

BTW Jon MDT officially recorded 2" and ABC27 recorded 1.2" overnight.

I'd put at least a little hope on it.... :snowman:

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Certainly gonna tune in to Weather World tonight on PCN.

For online version, go to pcntv.com, click on PCN+ and watch the live feed at 5:45.

I have a lot of respect for those guys.

Yea, I watch or dvr them during weather events, Very informative considering they cover the whole state with their predictions and ifo.

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