NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GFS is yet another miss off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Remember when you all were blasting me yesterday for saying this would be a miss and that it'd be yet another I-95 storm? Yes, and I also remember when you said last year that you would never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever get another storm over five inches and you even stomped in your feetie pajamas to make sure everybody saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GFS is yet another miss off the coast. Much more west than 6Z though. It'll change a bunch more times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, and I also remember when you said last year that you would never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever get another storm over five inches and you even stomped in your feetie pajamas to make sure everybody saw. Anyway, looks like there is SOME semblance of a NW trend commencing if you look at total precip on the GFS. It's much farther north and west on the 12z vs the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Agreed. You must factor in the strong SE bias the GFS has and the fact the low position it shows actually HAS to basically pull this west fairly dramatically. If Euro has anything remotely like its 0z run confidence level has to rise imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 All we ned is like a 50-100 miles shift NW with QPF in 2 days. That's not impossible since they been shifting hundreds of miles. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well the CMC says the western solution is not off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 12z GEFS has a nice hit I am hearing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There are probably 5-7 GEFS members that are going to show a strong Central PA hit. Haven't seen the members, but the spag charts are showing much different solution than op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEFS accum precip. I81 West- .25 I81 East- .50 A very small sliver of SE PA...basically Philly and surrounding suburbs up to maybe Norristown gets .75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Oh and we hit the big goose egg last night. 2303:55Calm10.00FairCLR0-129.911014.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So, thanks to the GGEM...anywhere from a miss to a mixstorm is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So, thanks to the GGEM...anywhere from a miss to a mixstorm is still on the table. In other words, who knows. Hang in there and don't let the model runs get you so down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro is going to be a major C PA hit if it doesn't get too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro, GGEM look good for Central PA...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Backside QPF was actually lacking a little. Still a strong 6-10 for basically the whole region, except the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr84 988 near Delmarva Mod-Hvy precip to Altoona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro is going to be a major C PA hit if it doesn't get too warm Seeing the play-by-play in the Philly thread, it seems like a significant westward shift. When are we in the time frame when all players are inland over the denser data grid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr90...980 just east of Cape May. Mod-hvy ABE to AVP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro, GGEM look good for Central PA...... That's what I like to hear and see. Bring it on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Mod precip goes UNV to ALB at hr84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Seeing the play-by-play in the Philly thread, it seems like a significant westward shift. When are we in the time frame when all players are inland over the denser data grid? The northern stream s/w that is responsible for digging down to the Gulf is already onshore in BC. I suspect by 0z tonight, when it is over MT, will be when you can consider the players to be "on the field." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro is going to be a major C PA hit if it doesn't get too warm Yep, definitely an improvement from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does my area get more precipitation from being closer to the coast? Or does all of PA basically get the same amount? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Euro has been pretty consistent with this storm the last 4 runs. And it has a storm. Adam and Brain thank you for the updates !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 1.00" QPF back to MPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I believe we can safely say the crazy east jogs yesterday were a simple reset, no? Things look to be aligning with the L placement. Still might be too east for the extremely .NW part ignite region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0.75" AVP to Altoona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 UNV 0.60" Please note this data is being imported from the NYC/PHL thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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