PSU8315 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 About 0.75" at MDT, with perhaps a bit of sleet mixed in. 0.25" back along the I-99 corridor -- all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 About 0.75" at MDT, with perhaps a bit of sleet mixed in. 0.25" back along the I-99 corridor -- all snow. KHGR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 KHGR? About 0.7" - looks like mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Would like to have access to the MOS and mid levels. Probably terrible ratio's but with 850's staying fairly similar to previous runs (outside of todays 12z) and 2m temps range from below freezing to mid 30's...would think this is mainly snow NW of Harrisburg, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 About 0.7" - looks like mostly snow. Thank god. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 About 0.75" at MDT, with perhaps a bit of sleet mixed in. 0.25" back along the I-99 corridor -- all snow. Can you toss out a KAVP/Hazleton area number and p-type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Would like to have access to the MOS and mid levels. Probably terrible ratio's but with 850's staying fairly similar to previous runs (outside of todays 12z) and 2m temps range from below freezing to mid 30's...would think this is mainly snow NW of Harrisburg, It will be clearer when I get a map to look at, but some of the sites I've looked at show this would be mostly snow not just northwest of I-81, but also north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Can you toss out a KAVP/Hazleton area number and p-type? AVP looks like almost all snow with about 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It will be clearer when I get a map to look at, but some of the sites I've looked at show this would be mostly snow not just northwest of I-81, but also north of I-80. You have 925's or soundings? If so whats the aprox. farthest mixing? Or is it more snow/rain/snow? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You have 925's or soundings? If so whats the aprox. farthest mixing? Or is it more snow/rain/snow? Thanks. All I have for now is 2m temps, 850 temps, sfc pressure, qpf, 500mb height and 1000-500mb thickness, so I can only approximately diagnose where there will be mixing. If I had to guess, the mix line would be somewhere from the Poconos to Harrisburg. NW of there would be mostly snow. SE of there would see at least some mixing. Again, the picture will become clearer when the maps come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A lot of porn here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 AVP looks like almost all snow with about 0.5" Sounds like a meh event with low ratios. But who knows, this could be our absolute best-case scenario. Any closer west and we get rain I suppose. Obviously the 12"+ scenario is now off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 They are the prettiest colors we have seen in awhile. Currently 1 degree here. edit: 0 degree out now. A lot of porn here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS can't make up it's mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Lots of gloom and doom (again) after the 06 GFS came out. This storm is like No Limit Hold 'Em. Hours of boredom between model runs, then minutes of terror all-in with the latest run. CTP has some interesting comments about a possible westward shift later and why - MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS STORM POTENTIAL IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST WINTER STORM FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE MAIN PLAYERS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF SAID STORM ARE BETTER INITIALIZED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOULD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND FOCUS. FOR NOW...THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF UPPER LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURES ARE IN PLAY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAD BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND IMPRESSIVE DURING THE PAST 36 TO 48 HOURS...DEPICTING WHAT COULD BEST BE CHARACTERIZED AS A SUPERSTORM-TYPE SOLUTION THAT (IF VERIFIED) WOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER...SATURDAY ECMWF RUNS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD SHIFT TO WHAT HAD BEEN A CONSISTENT SOLUTION...BOTH IN TERMS OF TRACK AND INTENSITY. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF ECWS SCENARIOS DAYS IN ADVANCE...AND DOES NOT DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL PERSAY OF A LARGE WINTER STORM. IT DOES HOWEVER UNDERSCORE THE IMPORTANCE OF EXPRESSING UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE OF A POTENTIALLY LARGE STORM...AND TO FOCUS ON COMMUNICATING THAT UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH TRENDS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE LATEST ROUND OF 00Z/23 JAN GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 00Z/23 OPERATIONAL ECMWF NOW TRACKS A STRONG SURFACE LOW SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY`S "WIDE RIGHT" SOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE AND THU/FRI POTENTIALLY WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR CENTRAL PA...PRODUCING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWSTORM FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE 00Z/23 ECMWF SOLUTION CLOSELY MIRRORS THE 00Z/23 GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MSL FIELDS IN TRACK AND INTENSITY...WHICH STRENGTHENS CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA. GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORMS OF THIS MONTH...THE EVENTUAL SOLUTIONS WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW STRONGLY UPPER LEVEL WAVES DIG THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... AND THE INTENSITY OF GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN CONVECTION PUNCHING UP AN OFFSHORE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY POOR IN HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF SUCH WAVES AS THEY RIDE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGES...AND WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN I DO EXPECT A GENERAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK OF DETERMINISTIC AND GEFS MEAN MSL SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES FOR PARTS OF MY AREA...NAMELY THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED ONCE A MORE CONFIDENT SOLUTION IS IN HAND. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO 10 OR 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. EVEN WITH ONLY A VERY LIGHT WIND...THIS WILL PUT WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WELL BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE STORM COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IF SNOW WERE TO OCCUR...THE TIMING OF ANY SNOW WOULD BE AROUND WEDNESDAY. One word...DANG! Not hopeful about snow according to the NWS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Lots of gloom and doom (again) after the 06 GFS came out. This storm is like No Limit Hold 'Em. Hours of boredom between model runs, then minutes of terror all-in with the latest run. CTP has some interesting comments about a possible westward shift later and why - Wow, what a long term writeup by CTP this morning.. some great stuff in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maeve Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 "Wow, what a long term writeup by CTP this morning.. some great stuff in there." It's a very intelligent discussion, isn't it? So glad they don't over-react to every single run of every single model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW, I think DT's map is pretty good for a first guess and is similar to my ideas. Of course, this is before the 12z guidance comes out. I still think if the models are going to trend in any direction, it will be farther west. When I looked through the models this morning, I was surprised to see the surface low come so far east with where the H5 low starts going negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Correct if wrong, but the 12z NAM looks like a big improvement from 00Z. As far as LP placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Correct if wrong, but the 12z NAM looks like a big improvement from 00Z. As far as LP placement. 12Z NAM is great. We need about a 50-75 miles Shift west and we a gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12Z NAM is great. We need about a 50-75 miles Shift west and we a gold. For you yes, not for me. I'm in E. Lanc Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 For you yes, not for me. I'm in E. Lanc Co. No it would be good for you too. Unless you don't want any qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW, I think DT's map is pretty good for a first guess and is similar to my ideas. Of course, this is before the 12z guidance comes out. I still think if the models are going to trend in any direction, it will be farther west. When I looked through the models this morning, I was surprised to see the surface low come so far east with where the H5 low starts going negative tilt. I was just rather surprised when he put that map up cuz he was talking up a heavy snowfall inland and then his bullseye is the region near NYC and southern New England. Like the Boxing Day storm was here in central PA, i think this ones going to be a tall order for the megalopolis to see the best snows given the setup. If the storm gets deep, with east based NAO and farther west western ridge they're gonna have trouble with mixing and/or rain. And if the storm evolves to allow PHL and NYC an all snow solution I wouldn't think there'd be alot of QPF to allow much more than a low end 3-6" ish type event, not 6-12+". Should be fun to watch as always. Any rate, this is prolly the last you'll hear of me till late tonight assuming I don't die of hypothermia, I'll be in PIttsburgh to hopefully watch the Steelers kick the crap outta the Jets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was just rather surprised when he put that map up cuz he was talking up a heavy snowfall inland and then his bullseye is the region near NYC and southern New England. Like the Boxing Day storm was here in central PA, i think this ones going to be a tall order for the megalopolis to see the best snows given the setup. If the storm gets deep, with east based NAO and farther west western ridge they're gonna have trouble with mixing and/or rain. And if the storm evolves to allow PHL and NYC an all snow solution I wouldn't think there'd be alot of QPF to allow much more than a low end 3-6" ish type event, not 6-12+". Should be fun to watch as always. Any rate, this is prolly the last you'll hear of me till late tonight assuming I don't die of hypothermia, I'll be in PIttsburgh to hopefully watch the Steelers kick the crap outta the Jets. Yeah, I agree with this too. I'm not that into detailed stuff yet, especially with BL p-type issues. I'd have probably pulled the 6-12 farther west, but it's really a difference of 50 miles or so. I know that means a lot for people's backyards, but in terms of the general regional forecast, I didn't think it was that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was just rather surprised when he put that map up cuz he was talking up a heavy snowfall inland and then his bullseye is the region near NYC and southern New England. Like the Boxing Day storm was here in central PA, i think this ones going to be a tall order for the megalopolis to see the best snows given the setup. If the storm gets deep, with east based NAO and farther west western ridge they're gonna have trouble with mixing and/or rain. And if the storm evolves to allow PHL and NYC an all snow solution I wouldn't think there'd be alot of QPF to allow much more than a low end 3-6" ish type event, not 6-12+". Should be fun to watch as always. Any rate, this is prolly the last you'll hear of me till late tonight assuming I don't die of hypothermia, I'll be in PIttsburgh to hopefully watch the Steelers kick the crap outta the Jets. Go Steelers baby! wohoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Remember when you all were blasting me yesterday for saying this would be a miss and that it'd be yet another I-95 storm? Dude, stop. You've been doing nothing but bustcasting in this thread. We're still three days away from the event and you're calling it over? There are lots of reasons to believe that the low will come closer to the coast/farther inland than currently progged. It may not, and you may ultimately be proven right, but constantly bustcasting w/o analysis or reason is annoying to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What did the 12z NAM show for my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maeve Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Remember when you all were blasting me yesterday for saying this would be a miss and that it'd be yet another I-95 storm? Good Lord, would you please stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was just rather surprised when he put that map up cuz he was talking up a heavy snowfall inland and then his bullseye is the region near NYC and southern New England. Like the Boxing Day storm was here in central PA, i think this ones going to be a tall order for the megalopolis to see the best snows given the setup. If the storm gets deep, with east based NAO and farther west western ridge they're gonna have trouble with mixing and/or rain. And if the storm evolves to allow PHL and NYC an all snow solution I wouldn't think there'd be alot of QPF to allow much more than a low end 3-6" ish type event, not 6-12+". Should be fun to watch as always. Any rate, this is prolly the last you'll hear of me till late tonight assuming I don't die of hypothermia, I'll be in PIttsburgh to hopefully watch the Steelers kick the crap outta the Jets. Enjoy. Oh, and don't die! So, what's the forecast for this week? Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.