sauss06 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Jeez. busy all day and stop by for a minute...looks like its not going so well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM/DGEX gives us nothing. The way east and weaker trend continues. Too far out to get way down.. If this was Monday I would lose hope, but we have a ways to go. I think starting next GFS Run we start to see a more westerly shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Jeez. busy all day and stop by for a minute...looks like its not going so well... Well, it will be a nice day to wash the salt off the car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z GFS gives us nothing. Low over the GLs is a kicker...it's keeping this one from coming too far west...pretty much every model impacts the storm that way. 0z is our last chance IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS came a bit west of 12Z. I bet it comes a good bit west at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z GFS gives us nothing. Low over the GLs is a kicker...it's keeping this one from coming too far west...pretty much every model impacts the storm that way. 0z is our last chance IMO. Can you stop it already. Good good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Too far out to get way down.. If this was Monday I would lose hope, but we have a ways to go. I think starting next GFS Run we start to see a more westerly shift. i want to see what the next euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 OK, you guys tell us then how we get anything memorable from this storm, when every model trend right now is bad for us. Read what Tom said in the Lehigh Valley thread. If the models can change this drastically in 12 hours, they can make an equally drastic change back. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Read what Tom said in the Lehigh Valley thread. If the models can change this drastically in 12 hours, they can make an equally drastic change back. Time will tell. Right, but the seasonal trend also must be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 OK, you guys tell us then how we get anything memorable from this storm, when every model trend right now is bad for us. Let's see the NAM/UKMET/JMA/GGEM are west, GFS/EURO east. So it's anyones game still you need to chill. We are still days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Definitely not very impressive on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Let's see the NAM/UKMET/JMA/GGEM are west, GFS/EURO east. So it's anyones game still you need to chill. We are still days away. 18z NAM is not west and likely swings the majority of the precipitation to our east. Whatever data was incorporated into the models showing the weak shortwave over the Great Lakes stronger, it definitely caused most models to shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Let's see the NAM/UKMET/JMA/GGEM are west, GFS/EURO east. So it's anyones game still you need to chill. We are still days away. The GGEM ENS and Euro ENS were both well east. And the NAM obviously turned out to be east. GEFS is also east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GGEM ENS and Euro ENS were both well east. And the NAM obviously turned out to be east. GEFS is also east. ENS are always east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Definitely not very impressive on radar. Where is it already showing up on radar? We are still 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z NAM is not west and likely swings the majority of the precipitation to our east. Whatever data was incorporated into the models showing the weak shortwave over the Great Lakes stronger, it definitely caused most models to shift east. No this is very incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Where is it already showing up on radar? We are still 3-4 days out. I'm pretty sure he is joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No this is very incorrect. Sure the NAM simulated radar looks good at first glance, but that precipitation swings out to the east of many of us with the trough becoming negatively tilted too late. Even the so-called NAM extension (DGEX) shows most of the precipitation glancing to our east. The 18z NAM was a major shift east from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sure the NAM simulated radar looks good at first glance, but that precipitation swings out to the east of many of us with the trough becoming negatively tilted too late. Even the so-called NAM extension (DGEX) shows most of the precipitation glancing to our east. The 18z NAM was a major shift east from the 12z run. DGEX has GFS in it that's why it's east. All the RH is moving NNE on the NAM at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 All right guys, I'm going out for now, hopefully 0z trends better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Where is it already showing up on radar? We are still 3-4 days out. Haha...exactly...so why are people getting so bent out of shape about the model runs this far out? Give it some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If you animate the simulated radar, you can clearly see the easterly progression of the 18z NAM. It is definitely there. H5 charts support a track very close to us, but mainly affecting I-95. In any case whatever is shows, it is a major shift EAST from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z gfs - red 18z gfs yellow for the same time period look about the same in regards to east / west movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I will be much happier if I get rain out of this system that having it move to my east, ugh. Hard to believe the ECMWF went from 2in QPF at KMDT to less than a tenth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I will be much happier if I get rain out of this system that having it move to my east, ugh. Hard to believe the ECMWF went from 2in QPF at KMDT to less than a tenth of an inch. Me too at least it would be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Me too at least it would be something to watch. And we are already -1.07in for a precipitation deficit here in Harrisburg for January. December was -1.25in. This sharp cut-off crap is beginning to get really old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Mount Washington Anyone? Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -32. Wind chill values as low as -73. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind 55 to 60 mph increasing to between 65 and 70 mph. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18Z GFS ENS say we good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We just need to relax. 24 hours ago we was slapping each other on the back. Because we was getting dumped on. As mentioned the models have been showing these big storms. And then 3-5 days...they are out to lunch. Only to come back around again. The Nam is not really in it's range yet. So all we can do is watch for positive changes. Still plenty of time for us!! If it goes East...Then it is what it is. Eventually our turn will come. It might not even be this year, but we will get our turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18Z GFS ENS say we good. some good ones in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.