PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Also, I know the NAM isn't vary accurate this far out, but if you notice on Hr 84 there is ridging out in front and an area of LP in the Great Lakes which may drag this up the coastline or eastern apps, but what do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I see MAG lurking...any thoughts? Should we start worrying about another miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 See i don't understand why they would say this, the NAM to me looks like it goes negative tilt around atlanta GA and would track up the coastal plain. I guess we will find out. Just from personal experiences the Canadian has done a stand up job lately with the last couple of storms and hasn't waivered thus far Me either. I don't agree the NAM would not be OTS it would be inland. And the srefs are still pretty much all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Me either. I don't agree the NAM would not be OTS it would be inland. And the srefs are still pretty much all over the place. srefs = not good for western ,pa. im curious to see what the NAM shows once it gets into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 EURO ENS are rolling...I'll bring details over shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr90 has a 1006 low over Hatteras... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr96 way east of Ocean City with 850s off the coast. All snow but it won't be much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Goes over the BM...big winners are...you guessed it, Philly to NYC. What else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 srefs = not good for western ,pa. im curious to see what the NAM shows once it gets into range. For what its worth we have JB and DT on our sides, they both argue for inland track. Plus it just seems fishy, how many Miller A storms can you count that hit the benchmark, that have a ridge axis centered over seatle? A lot of these types of storms are coastal huggers or plainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 For what its worth we have JB and DT on our sides, they both argue for inland track. Plus it just seems fishy, how many Miller A storms can you count that hit the benchmark, that have a ridge axis centered over seatle? A lot of these types of storms are coastal huggers or plainers. DT still thinking inland? i dont see an update on wxrisk today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DT still thinking inland? i dont see an update on wxrisk today. Still? I'm not sure just going off yesterdays, although JB is still promoting inland off his blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Still? I'm not sure just going off yesterdays, although JB is still promoting inland off his blog JB, just the guy we want our side...NOT! This is looking like another I-95 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 06Z Nam is further east in the ridge axis position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I see MAG lurking...any thoughts? Should we start worrying about another miss? Well it appears that the long term is still yet to be updated for the afternoon (updated around noon). Usually everything gets updated around 3pm and the long term comes out a bit later at 4pm. So at noon the best they'd have is the 9z SREF, and that mean def yanked everything east of us. However the 12z NAM looks like an eventual hit IMO, I mean a low coming up out of the gulf to just south of Atlanta at 84 doesn't seem like a miss to me. I'd be curious to see the 15z SREF mean and what that has. The new Euro is very tight with its NW precip extent. That track is usually one that should be half decent for Harrisburg and E/SE to get a good snow. At this point, i'm not getting too freaked out about things going east today. I just don't know what it is with these models backing away when they get to days 3-5 usually to eventually come back near what they had in the first place. And it's still quite close by. The GGEM is a bit to left today with potential mixing issues and maintains nearly the same track it's had the last couple days. The euro still has a healthy storm but has went east and as mentioned has a really tight NW precip shield. Lastly the GFS op actually has an evolution like the other models today with a gulf storm turning into a nice east coast low. Its just wayy out there in the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NWS Pittsburgh just updated their long term discussion. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BLEND OF RECENT ECMWF MODEL SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THURSDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOW SHOWERS STARTING FRIDAY. IF THERE IS A DRY BREAK FRIDAY IT COULD BE SHORT WITH TOO LOW A CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST 5 DAYS OUT. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE COLDER THAN NORMAL USING BLENDOF GFS MOS, ECMWF AND NAEFS MEDIAN VALUES AND RESPECTING REFRIGERATING INFLUENCES OF FRESHENED SNOW PACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It snows where it has snowed. No truer words this year it seems. No matter the type of ato it gets taken over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 At this point, i'm not getting too freaked out about things going east today. I just don't know what it is with these models backing away when they get to days 3-5 usually to eventually come back near what they had in the first place. And it's still quite close by. The GGEM is a bit to left today with potential mixing issues and maintains nearly the same track it's had the last couple days. The euro still has a healthy storm but has went east and as mentioned has a really tight NW precip shield. Lastly the GFS op actually has an evolution like the other models today with a gulf storm turning into a nice east coast low. Its just wayy out there in the ocean. We'll see. You can't be feeling too good though right now given the seasonal trend has been to go way east and give our area scraps while I-95 gets the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Heh, well looks like CTP long term still bein tweaked. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUESITS SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE EAST FROM ITS PRIOR RUN AND APPEARS TO BE AN INTERMEDIATE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION WHEN COMPARED TO THE /WESTERN/ CANADIAN AND /EASTERN/ GFS TRACKS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF MEAN BEYOND F84 WOULD FAVOR A TRACK TOO FAR TO THE EAST/OUT TO SEA TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TO CENTRAL PA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...THESE COASTAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN ANYTHING BUT EASY TO FORECAST. THE LAST TWO MODEL CYCLES HAVE WIDENED THE SPREAD CONSIDERABLY...RESULTING IN A MEANINGFUL DECREASE IN FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What's lost in the shuffle of this increasingly frustrating potential event is how cold it get prior. Forecasted temps for Sunday night have been lowered by about five degrees, at least here in Tamaqua. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -7. Wind chill values as low as -17. North wind between 6 and 8 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18Z NAM would be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well it appears that the long term is still yet to be updated for the afternoon (updated around noon). Usually everything gets updated around 3pm and the long term comes out a bit later at 4pm. So at noon the best they'd have is the 9z SREF, and that mean def yanked everything east of us. However the 12z NAM looks like an eventual hit IMO, I mean a low coming up out of the gulf to just south of Atlanta at 84 doesn't seem like a miss to me. I'd be curious to see the 15z SREF mean and what that has. The new Euro is very tight with its NW precip extent. That track is usually one that should be half decent for Harrisburg and E/SE to get a good snow. At this point, i'm not getting too freaked out about things going east today. I just don't know what it is with these models backing away when they get to days 3-5 usually to eventually come back near what they had in the first place. And it's still quite close by. The GGEM is a bit to left today with potential mixing issues and maintains nearly the same track it's had the last couple days. The euro still has a healthy storm but has went east and as mentioned has a really tight NW precip shield. Lastly the GFS op actually has an evolution like the other models today with a gulf storm turning into a nice east coast low. Its just wayy out there in the ocean. I agree -- the models seem to have had the most trouble from days 3-5 the past couple of winters. I'm not planning on making any significant changes to the forecast today. If the models are looking the same tomorrow night, then I'll think about some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 from the philly thread JB 2pm update backs ukmet, ggem nogaps jma rather than gfs and the new euro the problem he says: "The modeling problem is that it is trying to flatten the southern feature by putting more emphasis on the jet to the north, and kicking features behind. Its a problem, but one that the model cant handle now" Says big cities will either be mostly rain (main idea), or mostly snow with rain just southeast (possibility he is ok with) -- lets hope -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So how did people predict the weather before computer models. he he Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think Accuweather map is too much west. I would say the safe bet to get significant snow right now would be like 220 and east. Of course with up slopping the highlands will get some, right now WPA looks to be a 1-3 or 2-4" Of course this could all change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So how did people predict the weather before computer models. he he It was probably easier without the p.o.s. models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We'll see. You can't be feeling too good though right now given the seasonal trend has been to go way east and give our area scraps while I-95 gets the best. Oh i'm def aware of this years winter trend and it looms large in my mind trying to decipher what this storms eventually gonna do. But i just don't buy the same old thing with this particular event. The ridge axis has been talked about already in here a couple times, and that has generally been forecast to be in the Pac northwest region around approx Seattle. The ideal western ridge axis for coastals here is if I'm not mistaken Boise, ID or roughly thereabouts. Add in the neutralish-negative east based neg NAO and lack of 50/50 low and there's nothing to really force a deeper gulf/coastal low east offshore. It's been like clockwork really with the computer models this season. it gets within about 4 days of the event and they start losing the storm going east/out to sea. The Boxing Day storm was practically a Euro only solution and then the Euro lost it around 72 hours or so. And then of course all models suddenly started coming back around to it with less than a couple days. However that was one I knew was going to be a tall order for our region, the western ridge was much further east coupled with the established -NAO, etc. Throughout the course of that, there was like one or two euro runs that really got us good and nothing else ever was more than a light or glancing blow. For this one we've had more than one destroying CPA and actually being less than ideal the other way (too warm/west) in eastern sections. And the warmest of them all also remains the one that pretty much hasn't changed today, although the GGEM likes to be eccentric with being too wound up. The euro went from cracking CPA to barely getting decent deform back to the big cities, despite actually having a OK track for some of us in here. The GFS was at its closest the other day before going rogue yesterday and coming back to a well offshore stronger coastal today. All models have a decent storm at this point. Somethings gotta give eventually. Thats my "modelology" take I suppose, although I'm sure a fifth of jack can be a good substitute trying to guess what these friggin models will do. Given the pattern and all the jibberish in the above paragraph I still expect things to eventually settle back west to something of a slightly offshore or true coastal hugger. Basically taking a blend of the current Euro/GGEM in other words. I think the bigger question that might crop up eventually is how tight the gradient is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM/DGEX gives us nothing. The way east and weaker trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 NAM/DGEX gives us nothing. The way east and weaker trend continues. Incorrect. Dgex gives us nothing, NAM would most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Anyone want to go to NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think the bigger question that might crop up eventually is how tight the gradient is. THAT is what's been looming in the back of my mind since this threat materialized. Last year, we dealt with it from south to north, and so far this year from east to west. Call me gun shy, but until the event is right on our doorstep (or front yard to be facetious) I'll be worried that we somehow miss out on the best of another potentially major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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