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The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)


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I really wish you eastern NC people would stop wishing for a weaker OTS storm so y'all can get your little 2" snow.

Personally here in the foothills we haven't had a big snowstorm over 10" since the late 90's probably. Y'all down east have had several, especially 2000.

So sorry but it's our turn in the western piedmont and foothills!! People assume WNC get a lot more snow and that is not true unless you are the mtns, thats the true WNC.

Had to let it out sorry, let's hope for a HECS and not a dud ok? Thanks

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I like having HPC on my side, crayons and all. Can't hurt. They're smart right?

Story in the Charlotte Observer: Brad Panovich is on board. Accuweather south guy says no dice (he gets paid by the JB/NE crowd). Some other dude says it could be a blockbuster; meaning it will have huge sales at the box office or whatever.

Observer Article

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I like having HPC on my side, crayons and all. Can't hurt. They're smart right?

Story in the Charlotte Observer: Brad Panovich is on board. Accuweather south guy says no dice (he gets paid by the JB/NE crowd). Some other dude says it could be a blockbuster; meaning it will have huge sales at the box office or whatever.

Observer Article

Mike Dross is a good met...most of us old timers remember him from WWBB.

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Seeing how it's the FFC, I can easily believe it. :lol:

thankfully we get the gsp office! looks like you and i could be in a good spot again (at least this far out). it appears there will be some type of storm mon night - wed. in the se - cold temps are around and so far things have gone in our favor starting last year. even if we get heavy snow to sleet and back and forth, as long as the plain rain is kept away its still a good winter storm in my book (esp if the euro qpf is even close. i am happy to see it, but am certainly not buying it at this point). our area (the i85 corridor) did really well the last time i remember anything close to this (late 70s/80s), so until i see something to change my mind (the horrors of a switch to an apps runner) i am certainly watching adn waiting with anticipation

sort of wishing the next two days were work days....since i have been busy i cant follow as much. i guess the reload button will be getting a lot of action this weekend. i would love another biggie, but honestly if i had to keep the office closed another week my income stream might not be too happy about it (although i am sure i could get over it lol)

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I really wish you eastern NC people would stop wishing for a weaker OTS storm so y'all can get your little 2" snow.

Personally here in the foothills we haven't had a big snowstorm over 10" since the late 90's probably. Y'all down east have had several, especially 2000.

So sorry but it's our turn in the western piedmont and foothills!! People assume WNC get a lot more snow and that is not true unless you are the mtns, thats the true WNC.

Had to let it out sorry, let's hope for a HECS and not a dud ok? Thanks

in all respect most of the events i've witnessed living in east nc has hammered the west nc area. even if its just 2 inches of snow ya'll get WAY more frozen precip than east nc. i'm just saying that the solution of this being an inland runner is getting more hype than it deserves. if this solution does play out only extreme we nc would see the frozen precip i would like to see more of a widespread event for the whole state.

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Please see Rule 6.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9664-posting-etiquette/

I really wish you eastern NC people would stop wishing for a weaker OTS storm so y'all can get your little 2" snow.

Personally here in the foothills we haven't had a big snowstorm over 10" since the late 90's probably. Y'all down east have had several, especially 2000.

So sorry but it's our turn in the western piedmont and foothills!! People assume WNC get a lot more snow and that is not true unless you are the mtns, thats the true WNC.

Had to let it out sorry, let's hope for a HECS and not a dud ok? Thanks

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I don't really agree with the march 09 comparisons. This system is a much different breed if it works out like the euro is showing. That system was a classic march bowling ball system. Very little phasing b/n the streams. Sure it was a cutoff, but that doesn't mean it was a phased system. The SLP was never lower than 1002 or 1003.

The euro solution is more of a full latitude type system. You have a strong jet diving due south into the plains hooking up with the STJ. That's why you have such low pressures so far south. It's rare to see a winter time system with a sub 990mb pressure south of 40N. The question ultimately is the timing of the phase and that's impossible to predict right now. I think cheeznado was right earlier, the CAD is probably going to be irrelevant in a situation like this if the euro/ggem solutions are right. A system this strong can produce severe weather in the coastal plain and a blizzard over the interior sections.

Yea the absolutely critical thing is the surface pressure with the EURO and to a lesser extent the GGEM are predicting. A stronger surface low will actually help to enhance CAD because of the strong northeasterly flow on its northern flank. The CAD wont' show up well on a surface pressure field because the low is just so intense, but folks that were a part of March 1993 can tell you there was some CAD before the event. Right now the models are still having a hard time predicting where this surface feature pops up. If the models trend just a fraction too far west, the surface low goes up the Appalachian chain and the big winners are TN and KY. If it trends just a little further east, folks in Central NC/SC really get in on the action. The intensity also affects how far the rain/snow line can progress eastward. Very strong surface lows (sub 990mb) are a very rare thing to see in the southeast outside of tropical systems. You don't necessary need the perfect coast low track to get snow across the Piedmont and Mountains of NC since the low is strong and drawing in colder air though rapid intensification.

I agree. I'm not really comparing much on this one to that one. If anything this one would be more dynamic with the already low heights and cold temps at the surface and aloft. The euro begins precip in HKY to here right after 12z Tuesday as snow, and its surface temps are already upper 20's, so you got to question its surface temps later in the day with the surface low to our south and the low heights aloft even with 850's warming above zero (barely at HKY) the dynamics could keep areas there to the Upstate in snow or sleet or a mix of 3 ptypes. Overall its a much larger storm.

Yea this is not quite the same setup as March 2009, despite the similar 500mb features. That system was much smaller and only affected a pretty specific area with very heavy precipitation rates. A system being depicted like the EURO shows is on a much larger scale and will affect a lot more people from Alabama and up the Eastern Seaboard. The key thing to watch is where the 850mb low decides to go... if you are west or north of the feature at all... you are pretty much golden. If you are right over the 850mb low, it will depend on how strong the surface low is. The stronger the surface low is, the closer it will be connected to the 850mb low, and thus more WAA in the general vicinity.

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the 18z NAM is doing what the 12z did, allowing the first wave in Tenn and Miss. Valley to crawl and get captured by the diving 5H system in the Plains. There is a strong vortmax racing down New Mexico at 72 hours and this acts to pull the initial lead wave and also drag the larger 5H system in the Dakotas due south around this time, as it makes the turn around the bend of Texas. An axis of precip is slowly crawling in western Tenn through Mississippi and La. It looks reasonable to me, as to how that should synoptically happen. The strong tight flow in the Northeast holds everything west and forces the n. Plains system to begin dropping south. Thats the key , how far south it gets and how far west it is, to spark the Gulf Low.

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Raleigh must be seeing some high confidence. I have never seen RAH go with snow likely for 3 forecast periods 4 days out.

rahlolwut.jpg

Yeah, ain't it purty!

Monday: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: A chance of snow after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

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I really wish you eastern NC people would stop wishing for a weaker OTS storm so y'all can get your little 2" snow.

Personally here in the foothills we haven't had a big snowstorm over 10" since the late 90's probably. Y'all down east have had several, especially 2000.

So sorry but it's our turn in the western piedmont and foothills!! People assume WNC get a lot more snow and that is not true unless you are the mtns, thats the true WNC.

Had to let it out sorry, let's hope for a HECS and not a dud ok? Thanks

Well....it's nobody's turn. It's weather and it doesn't take turns. It's perfectly ok to be excited or disappointed. It's a weather forum so there's bound to be a wide range of emotion. But it should be somewhat tempered by the fact that the storm is still a LONG way away. Still, to your point, it's ridiculous and pointless in fact to be cluttering up threads with whining.

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GSP says it all perfectly:

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN

FAIRLY CONSISTENT AFTER THE BIG CHANGE LAST NIGHT. IT ALSO LINES UP

WELL WITH THE LATEST CANADIAN. WHILE THE 0600 UTC RUN OF THE GFS WAS

QUITE SIMILAR TO THE EC...THE 12 UTC RUN HAS AGAIN GONE OUT ON IT/S

OWN. PER HPC/S EXTENDED DISCUSSION AND KEYING OFF OF THE MORE

CONSISTENT MODELS...THE EXTENDED HAS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC

ECMWF/CANADIAN.

THE LATEST ECMWF...AS WITH PRETTY MUCH ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE

MODELS...DAMPENS OUT THE WAVE THAT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT EVEN

MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS IS THE RESULT OF STRONG UPSTREAM

HEIGHT FALLS AND THE STRONG...DRY AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT

WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY

NIGHT.

THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AGREE THAT ENERGY WILL RAPIDLY PHASE OVER THE

LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC

CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN GULF ON TUE...WITH A SWATH OF HEAVY PCPN

SPREADING ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TUE NIGHT. THE 12

UTC GFS IS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH AND NOT NEARLY AS WET OVER THE

FA. AGAIN...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION. AS SUCH...WE

ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD AMOUNT OF PCPN ON TUE. OF COURSE AT LOT

COULD CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

THE NEW ECMWF BRINGS THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TUE

NIGHT...WHILE THE CANADIAN TRACKS IT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH

THE LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY...WARM AIR SHOULD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE

REGION TUE NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM SNOW

TO SLEET/FZRA AND THEN RAIN OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE FA...WITH MORE

SNOW OVER THE MTNS. AS THE EVENT HAS BACKED OFF ANOTHER DAY...IT/S

STILL TOO FAR OUT TO GET SPECIFIC ABOUT PCPN TYPES OR AMOUNTS IN THE

PUBLIC FORECAST. FOR NOW I HAVE MAINLY RAIN AND SNOW IN THE GRIDS.

IF THE LOW IS AS DEEP AS ADVERTISED...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE

MIXED PCPN. HOWEVER...THE SFC LOW IS FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED...NOT LIKE

A CLASSIC MILLER-B PATTERN...SO THERE COULD STILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT

GRADIENT BETWEEN SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE FA.-- End Changed Discussion --

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FFC bought into the GFS and ignored the Euro altogether- if our NWS lurker is here, sorry, the forecast for near Hiawassee is pretty bold in its wimpiness:

Monday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

.

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Here's some input from RAH in the afternoon discussion (excerpts only...the whole shebang is at https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201101212023-KRAH-FXUS62-AFDRAH:

"...WINTRY WEATHER LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING TUESDAY UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH CHARACTER AND EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT NC EARLY TO MID WEEK... HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING... INTENSITY... AND PRECIP TYPES.

. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION BASED ON ITS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WITH THE CANADIAN. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY TUESDAY... THE MID SOUTH AND NRN GULF STATES TUESDAY NIGHT... AND ENE ACROSS NC TO THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE... AS THE STRONG HIGH CONTINUES TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... A CLASSICAL DAMMING EVENT RESULTS. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND STARTS MOVING NORTHEAST... TRAVELING ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WITH INVERTED TROUGHING EXTENDING UP THE WRN APPALACHIANS. THIS SINGLE-LOW MILLER A TYPE CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN FAVORS A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND MOSTLY RAIN TO ITS EAST. AS SUCH... PRECIP TYPES WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW'S TRACK.

THE OP ECMWF BRINGS THE COASTAL FRONT ONSHORE AND TAKES THE LOW ROUGHLY UP ALONG I-95 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION... HOWEVER WILL BROADEN THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE MODEL ERROR. THIS TRANSITION ZONE IS MOST LIKELY TO EXTEND ALONG HIGHWAY 1... WHICH EQUATES TO A MAINLY ALL-SNOW EVENT OVER THE TRIAD DOWN TO ALBEMARLE TO A MAINLY ALL-RAIN EVENT ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE EAST.

THE TRIANGLE AREA DOWN TOWARD SOUTHERN PINES LIES WITHIN THIS ZONE WHERE WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVERS... OR MOSTLY RAIN IF THE LOW TRACK IS WELL WEST OF I-95... OR MOSTLY SNOW IF THE LOW TRACK HUGS CLOSE TO THE COAST. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH TO NORTH.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP STILL OVER 100 HOURS AWAY... IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS REGARDING AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIP. THE ECMWF BRINGS FROM ONE (WRN CWA) TO TWO (ERN CWA) INCHES LIQUID STORM TOTAL... ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE ON THE HIGH END AS COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. EVEN SO... IF THE DYNAMICS END UP AS STRONG AS THE OP ECMWF INDICATES... OR IF WE END UP WITH A THERMODYNAMIC CONTRIBUTION (NOT IMPOSSIBLE IF WE GET A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH JUST E OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AND/OR IF THE COASTAL FRONT HEADS WELL INLAND)... PRECIP COULD BE HEAVY WITH THIS SYSTEM... AND HEAVY SNOW TOTALS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER WRN NC INCLUDING THE WRN PIEDMONT... WITH HEAVY RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH A BELOW-NORMAL DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY."

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You just got hammered 2 weeks ago, we got zilch and you want us to root it misses us again? I want a bomb that hugs the coast.

Actually, he didn't get hammered but that's besides the point, which I am going to guess is climo wise he feels (and it's justified scientifically) that the foothills area of the state should cash in more than the eastern part. He's being greedy for his BY, which who here isn't? I don't agree with him venting it out loud like he did, but I won't lie and say I don't share his sentiment a lot of times. It'd be like if you were in the MA this season. Even though you got slammed last winter, it's hard to see people to your south who hardly ever get snow cash in with big storms relative to their area while you get basically nothing. If I lived on a mountain and saw only 10 inches of snow one year while Wilmington got 20 inches, you can bet I would be one mad person and probably not too happy to see people gloating about "all the snow we got". But I am not dragging this out in the storm thread. Mods feel free to delete or move to the banter thread if necessary.

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the 18z NAM is doing what the 12z did, allowing the first wave in Tenn and Miss. Valley to crawl and get captured by the diving 5H system in the Plains. There is a strong vortmax racing down New Mexico at 72 hours and this acts to pull the initial lead wave and also drag the larger 5H system in the Dakotas due south around this time, as it makes the turn around the bend of Texas. An axis of precip is slowly crawling in western Tenn through Mississippi and La. It looks reasonable to me, as to how that should synoptically happen. The strong tight flow in the Northeast holds everything west and forces the n. Plains system to begin dropping south. Thats the key , how far south it gets and how far west it is, to spark the Gulf Low.

That vortmax is the one the 12z GFS weakened too quickly and thus the wave failed to dig further south. The 18z NAM is actually a bit further west than the 12z Euro at 84 hrs.

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FFC bought into the GFS and ignored the Euro altogether- if our NWS lurker is here, sorry, the forecast for near Hiawassee is pretty bold in its wimpiness:

Monday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

.

Monday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain and snow. Highs around 40.

Monday Night...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of freezing rain...snow and sleet. Lows in the upper 20s.

Tuesday...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Highs in the upper 30s.

Tuesday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain and snow. Lows in the lower 30s.

Wednesday...Partly sunny. Windy. Highs in the lower 40s.

For mby, thanks to all here so I know what really may happen

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To take a step back for a moment ....

Can there be ANY doubt that the GFS is simply not up to par as a model -- at least for wintertime patterns (the only one I really pay attention to)?

Why any forecaster would go with the GFS in the medium range over ANY model (including the JMA, which really seems to do pretty well with these storms) is beyond me.

To repeat and earlier post, the GFS has the surface low at 7 p.m. Tuesday in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the 0z run and off the Delmarva peninsula on the 12z run.

Maybe the GFS gets better inside 48 hours, but I'm beginning to think it's worth even less than I thought -- absolutely nothing -- in the medium range.

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