superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks for the update WeatherNC. NOGAPS looks like more or less, all snow in RDU (maybe a bit of rain at the front end). But ... it's the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Things sure look interesting for areas just north/west of me. Here's a nice write up on the March '09 storm that broke my heart here in the midlands http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20090302/ The day I permanently lost 10% of my sanity. I thought we didn't talk about that here in the midlands. Either way this plays out, I don't think too many of us can complain about this winter. Even if it isn't frozen, it's anti-drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Do we have synoptic reasons why this thing may trend further south and east, more toward the coast? Or are we looking at the other way around? I want to know what to look for this weekend to help this thing get in a more favorable snow position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks for the explanation. The rain to snow changeover that instant would be incredible to see. One thing I want to see before this winter is over is some decently heavy rates...You guys got lucky last storm and a lot of folks SW and W of RDU got 1-2"/hr rates....we have yet to see that here this winter and that's why I bought my HD video camera in the first place....rates rates rates! yeah last storm was good on rates here but only briefly . The first hour was moderate, then hours 2 and 3 was very heavy, and that was about it for the good accumulating stuff. The flakes weren't really big, but moderate and filled the sky completely, the visibility was down there with some medium to large flakes, and a bazillion small diamonds. The March 2009 snow was all 100% quarters and larger here, that one I'm sure I'll never see again. Wouldn't really want to as a lot of trees came down here, very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro ensembles rolling. Good news through 84, the mean is a bit deeper in the central US..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If I have to live through another March of 2009 I will give up. Watching the deformation band set up 5 miles to my east was heartbreaking. We had like 5 flakes. The same thing happened in March of last year too. The Def. band will be farther west than the 09 storm that stayed to our SE not at all the same with that detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 check out the RH fields on that storm (2009). It was already a well developed 5H, which this one won't be til its crossing us, per the Euro. Still very fun things can happen with them, unless its too much of a good thing. This storm is progged to be a slow mover too, the precip starts just west of CLT Tuesday morning and the Euro has 2m temps at upper 20's here. I kinda doubt we warm much once the precip begins we usually lock in at the surface with cold temps, taken literally it has us going to upper 30's during the heart of it, but its terrible on 2m temps in storms. Its a 24 hour precip maker for extreme N. GA all of western NC foothills and mtns, extreme Upstate and points north. Your right Robert. That upper low in 2009 actually dropped out of Canada and dug southeast into central Alabama and then ene through the Carolina's. At the very least, this upcoming storm has the potential to give you and me some decent precipitation amounts for once this winter be it rain or snow. That is unless the 12Z GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yeah last storm was good on rates here but only briefly . The first hour was moderate, then hours 2 and 3 was very heavy, and that was about it for the good accumulating stuff. The flakes weren't really big, but moderate and filled the sky completely, the visibility was down there with some medium to large flakes, and a bazillion small diamonds. The March 2009 snow was all 100% quarters and larger here, that one I'm sure I'll never see again. Wouldn't really want to as a lot of trees came down here, very quickly. We had some really heavy snow in the wee hours of the morning during the 1/30-1/31 2010 storm, but it was like powder coming down with extremely small flakes. Also, it was at 1-2 AM in the morning, so it was hard to see. It's been so long since I've seen a good daytime snowfall that I'd kind of prefer one of those, even though they're not good for accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I recall your posts during that storm.!!! Did you not loose power? yeah last storm was good on rates here but only briefly . The first hour was moderate, then hours 2 and 3 was very heavy, and that was about it for the good accumulating stuff. The flakes weren't really big, but moderate and filled the sky completely, the visibility was down there with some medium to large flakes, and a bazillion small diamonds. The March 2009 snow was all 100% quarters and larger here, that one I'm sure I'll never see again. Wouldn't really want to as a lot of trees came down here, very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks Cedric. I need some encouragement with everyone throwing that analog around. Are you going back to Cincy for this one or staying in Dalton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Is there a site that shows me how to turn qpf amts into snowfall totals? From what I understand from the short time I've been reading here, the larger the qpf amts, the higher the snowfall. Or am I wrong? 'General' rule is 1 inch of QPF (liquid) equates to 10 inches of snow. It's never going to be that exact. Snow ratios depend on how cold the storm is overall. Also, ground temps and daytime vs. nightime snow affect accumulations. Keep in mind that map shows total QPF for the storm, but not all of that will be snow for many locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I recall your posts during that storm.!!! Did you not loose power? I lost power that storm. We didn't have power for most of the day after the storm. I lived in Shelby for that storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks Cedric. I need some encouragement with everyone throwing that analog around. Are you going back to Cincy for this one or staying in Dalton? Ha, I am pretty torn at the moment. I was supposed to have been going back this weekend but I am going to probably wait till Sunday. Obviously if this is still being portrayed I will have to be here instead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro ensembles to 138- a lot of spread develops so the mean is farther north- the deep solution in the Carolinas is a clear outlier. Mean surface low track is from south GA to near ORF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I don't really agree with the march 09 comparisons. This system is a much different breed if it works out like the euro is showing. That system was a classic march bowling ball system. Very little phasing b/n the streams. Sure it was a cutoff, but that doesn't mean it was a phased system. The SLP was never lower than 1002 or 1003. The euro solution is more of a full latitude type system. You have a strong jet diving due south into the plains hooking up with the STJ. That's why you have such low pressures so far south. It's rare to see a winter time system with a sub 990mb pressure south of 40N. The question ultimately is the timing of the phase and that's impossible to predict right now. I think cheeznado was right earlier, the CAD is probably going to be irrelevant in a situation like this if the euro/ggem solutions are right. A system this strong can produce severe weather in the coastal plain and a blizzard over the interior sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wait a minute -- confused again. I though the op had the surface low in central Ga. -- the mean would be SOUTH of the op run, not north, right??? Euro ensembles to 138- a lot of spread develops so the mean is farther north- the deep solution in the Carolinas is a clear outlier. Mean surface low track is from south GA to near ORF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Saw this posted on talkweather. Can't wait to prove them wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 'General' rule is 1 inch of QPF (liquid) equates to 10 inches of snow. It's never going to be that exact. Snow ratios depend on how cold the storm is overall. Also, ground temps and daytime vs. nightime snow affect accumulations. Keep in mind that map shows total QPF for the storm, but not all of that will be snow for many locations. http://www.daculawea...wMelt_Water.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wait a minute -- confused again. I though the op had the surface low in central Ga. -- the mean would be SOUTH of the op run, not north, right??? 500mb is not as deep and broader so surface low is a bit more suppressed. With as much spread as there is the exact placement is not too important in any event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I recall your posts during that storm.!!! Did you not loose power? Yep and after only 3 hours of snow I think. I couldn't enjoy it after that , dead flashlights, falling limbs on house, etc. Ruined my whole night. I lost power that storm. We didn't have power for most of the day after the storm. I lived in Shelby for that storm.. I didn't know you lived in Shelby. I drove to town the next day and they had a lot less than I did. Weird storm. I don't really agree with the march 09 comparisons. This system is a much different breed if it works out like the euro is showing. That system was a classic march bowling ball system. Very little phasing b/n the streams. Sure it was a cutoff, but that doesn't mean it was a phased system. The SLP was never lower than 1002 or 1003. The euro solution is more of a full latitude type system. You have a strong jet diving due south into the plains hooking up with the STJ. That's why you have such low pressures so far south. It's rare to see a winter time system with a sub 990mb pressure south of 40N. The question ultimately is the timing of the phase and that's impossible to predict right now. I think cheeznado was right earlier, the CAD is probably going to be irrelevant in a situation like this if the euro/ggem solutions are right. A system this strong can produce severe weather in the coastal plain and a blizzard over the interior sections. I agree. I'm not really comparing much on this one to that one. If anything this one would be more dynamic with the already low heights and cold temps at the surface and aloft. The euro begins precip in HKY to here right after 12z Tuesday as snow, and its surface temps are already upper 20's, so you got to question its surface temps later in the day with the surface low to our south and the low heights aloft even with 850's warming above zero (barely at HKY) the dynamics could keep areas there to the Upstate in snow or sleet or a mix of 3 ptypes. Overall its a much larger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hazards crayon map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hazards crayon map Of course RDU is on the line of heavy rain and heavy snow. Typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackrdu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Of course RDU is on the line of heavy rain and heavy snow. Typical. Actually, I believe it's west of the crayon line. That would be the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The March 09 storm is a ok analog, although it dug down a little further south and was way more cutoff initially at 500mb than both what the GGEM and EURO show. Its important to know also how much the sun angle plus a very moist ground (several inches of rain fell across the SE in the days preceding the event) played a role keeping snowfall accumulations down across the region. Alot of the SLR was extremely low (6-8:1 for exaple in GSP). If the same synoptic setup happens in the middle of winter, there is a pretty good bet that a lot of these totals would be significantly higher. Here is a great case study of the event from GSP, which is even more detailed for the GSP CWA than Raleigh's study. http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20090302/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Actually, I believe it's west of the crayon line. That would be the I-95 corridor. Well great! I am just east of the rain/snow line........by a quarter mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Saw the oZ model PBP this morning at work and was pumped until I saw the GFS...now very glad the Euro is sticking to it's guns. Going to be an AmericanWX forum weekend for sure. Ready to see some BIG WET flakes now! The Nam at 54 looks a little stronger and SW..maybe a touch slower to my eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Of course RDU is on the line of heavy rain and heavy snow. Typical. We're firmly in the heavy snow area, Brick. With the JMA and NOGAPS on our side, there is no doubt in my mind that this will strike the RDU area with great ferocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moose4 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So after reading the RAH forecast discussion and trying to interpret it the best my little weenie brain can...sounds like all the models are pretty much in agreement that we're going to get smacked hard by something Monday through Wednesday? The only question is, as usual for the Southeast, who gets what type of precip and when, right? (Other than we know it won't snow in Chapel Hill.) And one of the major things for us amateurs to look at is the track of the low pressure and hoping that we stay a good chunk west of it to get more snow? I'm thinking about sneaking by the store tomorrow and snagging some extras, just in case this turns out to be a two- or three-loafer in the Triangle. Ya never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We're firmly in the heavy snow area, Brick. With the JMA and NOGAPS on our side, there is no doubt in my mind that this will strike the RDU area with great ferocity. I will hold you to that. And if it happens, you da man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Saw this posted on talkweather. this is way premature.....waaaaay too early. there is no way to even begin to think of amounts yet for something 5 days out Exactly...that's ridiculous for FFC to downplay it like that. exactly. see above. this is way too early....i cant even believe they are already discussing it like that at ffc edited to add: just read the updated afd from ffc - i dont know why they even bothered to post their 'extended' portion. its useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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