NEGa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 thanks for the qpf - those are some darn impressive numbers from the euro...almost unbelievable lol 3! Christmas then two weeks later Jan 10th storm and now maybe the Late Jan storm WOW not only that, the ice in dec (light but a very high impact situation), plus some folks had a good one last march (and those that missed march 2010 got hit with the march 09 event). that doesnt even count the 1" or less ones lol KATL has already had a whopping 5.9" of S/IP this winter. This already makes it the heaviest since the incredible 1982-3 winter's 10.3"! i hope we arent paying for these two years for the next two decades lol. winter 09-10 had over 18" imby (some fell and didnt accumulate but it was very heavy snow, but had multiple events, from 1" to 3" to 8" and a few less than an inchers); 10-11 so far 17" its really hard to believe these numbers, and i have tried adding them up several times and it still amazes me. if we get yet another 6"+ its conceivable that in two years, in georgia no less, over 40" of snow will have fallen. and some places up by rosie, blairsville, white counties through rabun county have had even more than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'll take that JMA set-up any day. Going to get a ladder truck and drive up to Wake Forest and get Brick down. Film at 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm a little confused. Whenever I hear "wrap around" from a storm I cringe. Is the majority of the piedmont/upstate snow supposed to come from wrap around moisture on this EURO run? I guess I'm hearing rain at the onset, then as the system passes to our south it transitions to snow as the system is to our east. Is that right? You should be cringing. We need this upper low to dig more to the SE to get good snow. You do NOT want to be south / southeast of the upper low vort max track. If you are - dry slot city by the time it's cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 KATL has already had a whopping 5.9" of S/IP this winter. This already makes it the heaviest since the incredible 1982-3 winter's 10.3"! Thanks for that data Larry! Please post more of your thoughts! I remember the early 2000's over at Peach State and you and Lookout and the rest of us just begging for snow flakes... now we shrug at 1-2" LOL. Your input of history helps a lot. I know you are always looking for the "Savanah Killer", I hope one day it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think I saw someone mention March 1st 09 storm as similar to this setup and yes the surface low tracks are very close on the EURO through about 120hrs. The March 09 500mb low dug a little more south than this one is modeled but actually ends up in about the same spot over the Carolina's. The man difference in this storm and the March 09 storm was that 850mb temperatures were a good bit colder than the one 2009. However this storm looks to have better dynamics associated with it so that may very well make up for that and models could very well be missing the dynamic cooling effect being this is still 4-5 days away. the 5H ends up just east of CLT like that one. Also, 539 heights, like that one. 2009: Jan 2011: I'm a little confused. Whenever I hear "wrap around" from a storm I cringe. Is the majority of the piedmont/upstate snow supposed to come from wrap around moisture on this EURO run? I guess I'm hearing rain at the onset, then as the system passes to our south it transitions to snow as the system is to our east. Is that right? thats about right, except this one starts as snow in CLT and goes to "something else" then back to heavy snow. Most of the snow would be the second half of the storm if this is right on the temps, but its awfully close. One move east a few miles will be mostly snow there, but can't say that yet. However just west of there for HKY to AVL to Shelby Lincolnton and the Upstate it will be colder aloft in this track and with the strong dynamics and low level cold aready in place (we're in 30's at the surface) then the switch to snow wouild be much quicker. Its so far out, we need to nail down the track of the surface and 5H features before really drawing a snow line yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 JMA looks great, will take it. Be back after I grab a ladder truck, drive to Wake Forest and get Brick down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Alright, I am officially model hugging the JMA now! Still not cold enough for all snow...that's what I'm worried about. I know Robert has said don't look at 850's but I have to...leaving the solution up to cooling is not something I like doing... but definitely prefer this over the inland...This would at least give everyone in NC (almost) something to smile about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That's almost spookily similar. the 5H ends up just east of CLT like that one. Also, 539 heights, like that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Still not cold enough for all snow...that's what I'm worried about. I know Robert has said don't look at 850's but I have to...leaving the solution up to cooling is not something I like doing... but definitely prefer this over the inland...This would at least give everyone in NC (almost) something to smile about! Everyone expect the Debbie Downer Duo from the Triangle area. I for one am really excited for this potential. I would love to see a giant amount of snow. Still a lot of tracking with this one, which is half the fun of a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 General Euro QPF traced off the pay maps. Is there a site that shows me how to turn qpf amts into snowfall totals? From what I understand from the short time I've been reading here, the larger the qpf amts, the higher the snowfall. Or am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Saw this posted on talkweather. FFC just finished conference call with emergency managers and thinks this will be a much weaker storm than the last with 2-4 inches in extreme NE GA and rain across south metro Atl and a rain/mix across rest of north GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Still not cold enough for all snow...that's what I'm worried about. I know Robert has said don't look at 850's but I have to...leaving the solution up to cooling is not something I like doing... but definitely prefer this over the inland...This would at least give everyone in NC (almost) something to smile about! well the dynamic cooling would be harder initially in this setup around FAY to RDU because its shown to be so warm at 850, right as the 5H is approaching, but once its passed, then the heavy rain would switch to heavy snow in the flash of an eye with those dynamics. Really would like to see a more easterly coastal track for RDU to get even more snow, but this is 5 days out so theres going to be changes. I wouildn't be surprised to see it edge more east to a norhteast Gulf to SAV to HAT track, so don't get too worried about the specifics of the Euro yet. It will start to hone in on a solid track soon I think. I'll never forget the March 2009 storm when it went from rain to fluffy snow in the snap of a finger. I was outside looking up at the rain in the cedars, then saw literally a line of white cascading down, that was the snow line literally falling to the floor, no mix, just instant switch. Just northwest of the 5H closed track is the best dynamics. Should be a fun storm (unless it all trends north, which it could!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, If something happens negatively with this storm, there will be plenty of winter weather chances with the way the pattern is setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Can you clarify this? The first part of your sentence implies 2011 storm colder than 2009, but then the second sentence confuses me -- because for this storm to have to "make up" for something would imply it was "behind" in terms of cold air. May just be my old age .... Sorry... had to run an errand right quick. What I meant was that the temperatures associated with the upper low in 2009 were colder than what at least the EURO is forecasting with this upper low early next week. Also after looking at some old maps of the 2009 storm the center of the 500mb low was located near CHS at 00Z March 2nd. So to get really good backside snows for the upstate and piedmont of the Carolinas I think we really need this upper low to trend a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Saw this posted on talkweather. Yeah, and this is EXACTLY why GDOT got caught with their pants on the ground, pants on the ground and have been on the news every night looking like fools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Everyone expect the Debbie Downer Duo from the Triangle area. I for one am really excited for this potential. I would love to see a giant amount of snow. Still a lot of tracking with this one, which is half the fun of a winter storm. Triad you do realize W-S is on the border temperature wise with this track? ANY westward drift will change the snow/ice look to ice/rain/snow with the vast majority being ice or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Foothills, The January 2000 snow for RDU switched over to snow in the snap of a finger as well. Heavy rain and then,....poof a boatload of quiet heavy snow set in...and didn't quit for almost 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You would be correct. Higher qpf = more stuff falling from the sky that will be collected. Is there a site that shows me how to turn qpf amts into snowfall totals? From what I understand from the short time I've been reading here, the larger the qpf amts, the higher the snowfall. Or am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well the dynamic cooling would be harder initially in this setup around FAY to RDU because its shown to be so warm at 850, right as the 5H is approaching, but once its passed, then the heavy rain would switch to heavy snow in the flash of an eye with those dynamics. Really would like to see a more easterly coastal track for RDU to get even more snow, but this is 5 days out so theres going to be changes. I wouildn't be surprised to see it edge more east to a norhteast Gulf to SAV to HAT track, so don't get too worried about the specifics of the Euro yet. It will start to hone in on a solid track soon I think. I'll never forget the March 2009 storm when it went from rain to fluffy snow in the snap of a finger. I was outside looking up at the rain in the cedars, then saw literally a line of white cascading down, that was the snow line literally falling to the floor, no mix, just instant switch. Just northwest of the 5H closed track is the best dynamics. Should be a fun storm (unless it all trends north, which it could!) Thanks for the explanation. The rain to snow changeover that instant would be incredible to see. One thing I want to see before this winter is over is some decently heavy rates...You guys got lucky last storm and a lot of folks SW and W of RDU got 1-2"/hr rates....we have yet to see that here this winter and that's why I bought my HD video camera in the first place....rates rates rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc87 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 no one can say what this storm is going to do not even the night before. just look at this past storm i was suppose to get 2-4 inches of snow here in rockingham i ended up with 8.7 inches of snow with a trace of ice. yea people can forecast all day long and get all hyped up over the models but in actuality it comes down to just waiting and seeing what the storm brings us. im not in the good zone for this storm as of now but who knows i was not in it with the last storm either. dont get your hopes up but also dont set them to high. i agree i was just suppose to get a trace and came out with 6 inches in the christmas storm. the only way that would happen for me with this storm is if it took the coastal track instead of the inland track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Things sure look interesting for areas just north/west of me. Here's a nice write up on the March '09 storm that broke my heart here in the midlands http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20090302/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks for the explanation. The rain to snow changeover that instant would be incredible to see. One thing I want to see before this winter is over is some decently heavy rates...You guys got lucky last storm and a lot of folks SW and W of RDU got 1-2"/hr rates....we have yet to see that here this winter and that's why I bought my HD video camera in the first place....rates rates rates! I agree as I haven't seen real impressive rates yet, either. I got 7" of snow on 12/25-12/26, but that fell in a timespan of 20 hours and the heaviest snow fell on Christmas evening as opposed to during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the 5H ends up just east of CLT like that one. Also, 539 heights, like that one. 2009: Jan 2011: thats about right, except this one starts as snow in CLT and goes to "something else" then back to heavy snow. Most of the snow would be the second half of the storm if this is right on the temps, but its awfully close. One move east a few miles will be mostly snow there, but can't say that yet. However just west of there for HKY to AVL to Shelby Lincolnton and the Upstate it will be colder aloft in this track and with the strong dynamics and low level cold aready in place (we're in 30's at the surface) then the switch to snow wouild be much quicker. Its so far out, we need to nail down the track of the surface and 5H features before really drawing a snow line yet. Thanks Robert. I am so very weary of that situation. It never seems to pan out for CLT. All of our good qpf snow seems to come from when the LOW is south and west of us and there's a stream of moisture coming out of the gulf due NE. Once the LOW passes due south, the storm is pretty much over. Now granted if this is such a "mega" storm maybe it'll be different, we'll see. But I hate having to depend on temps catching up to moisture here. When was the March 09 storm? I don't remember that one. Was that the upper level low that came through and it rained all day then at night it switched over to snow for a couple of sloshy inches in Charlotte? I think that was it, my wife made me go shopping at IKEA that just opened and it took all day. I digress. Anyway, don't want another of those either, all rain, little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sorry... had to run an errand right quick. What I meant was that the temperatures associated with the upper low in 2009 were colder than what at least the EURO is forecasting with this upper low early next week. Also after looking at some old maps of the 2009 storm the center of the 500mb low was located near CHS at 00Z March 2nd. So to get really good backside snows for the upstate and piedmont of the Carolinas I think we really need this upper low to trend a little further south. check out the RH fields on that storm (2009). It was already a well developed 5H, which this one won't be til its crossing us, per the Euro. Still very fun things can happen with them, unless its too much of a good thing. This storm is progged to be a slow mover too, the precip starts just west of CLT Tuesday morning and the Euro has 2m temps at upper 20's here. I kinda doubt we warm much once the precip begins we usually lock in at the surface with cold temps, taken literally it has us going to upper 30's during the heart of it, but its terrible on 2m temps in storms. Its a 24 hour precip maker for extreme N. GA all of western NC foothills and mtns, extreme Upstate and points north. day 4 RH day 5 RH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, and this is EXACTLY why GDOT got caught with their pants on the ground, pants on the ground and have been on the news every night looking like fools. Exactly...that's ridiculous for FFC to downplay it like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Good news for folks who do no want an Apps runner, the NOGAPS is back to it's progressive self and offshore this run, was over Roanoke Rapids at 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Foothills, The January 2000 snow for RDU switched over to snow in the snap of a finger as well. Heavy rain and then,....poof a boatload of quiet heavy snow set in...and didn't quit for almost 24hrs. I remember that so well. I was almost 6 years old and the memory that stuck in my head the most was hearing the rain go RATATATAT on our tin roof over the front porch while we were watching the Weather Channel that night. Suddenly, the noise stopped. Mom wouldn't let me investigate and so I headed to bed.... the next morning, I was in for a shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I was outside looking up at the rain in the cedars, then saw literally a line of white cascading down, that was the snow line literally falling to the floor, no mix, just instant switch. Awesome description there. I've heard the '93 storm was like that in N GA. Lightning flashes with heavy rain, then in an instant, lightning flashes and heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 For furtre assitance with "I do not recall _____ storm" go to this site and look it up. Great place!! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/ Thanks Robert. I am so very weary of that situation. It never seems to pan out for CLT. All of our good qpf snow seems to come from when the LOW is south and west of us and there's a stream of moisture coming out of the gulf due NE. Once the LOW passes due south, the storm is pretty much over. Now granted if this is such a "mega" storm maybe it'll be different, we'll see. But I hate having to depend on temps catching up to moisture here. When was the March 09 storm? I don't remember that one. Was that the upper level low that came through and it rained all day then at night it switched over to snow for a couple of sloshy inches in Charlotte? I think that was it, my wife made me go shopping at IKEA that just opened and it took all day. I digress. Anyway, don't want another of those either, all rain, little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If I have to live through another March of 2009 I will give up. Watching the deformation band set up 5 miles to my east was heartbreaking. We had like 5 flakes. The same thing happened in March of last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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