Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 With the surface low passing almost over RDU, and the strength of the storm, front end RN dump followed by "dry-slot," in the correct use of the term, as evidenced by 700mb RH's crashing after 18z Wednesday. Still a lot of uncertainty and for the actual solution to verify as this run depicted, is unlikely. All one has to do is look at the spread in the ens's to see this is far from getting a firm handle on what will happen, and where. This run pumps 850's to 10C here at PGV, a couple more degrees and we could be looking at a svr threat, RDU well over 2.5" of QPF this run, PGV close to 3". Thanks for the Central NC love. Oh yeah, if this unfolds exactly as progged five days out, it will be nothing short of a miracle. I honestly don't feel like us in the east will get in on this one. The high is sliding out. ENE winds are not going to do the trick. Never does. The fact that the system is delayed argues for more liquid for more people, especially if we get a bomb (in which case I think a more west track is in play), unless the high holds longer or a new one builds in more quickly than the models show. If the high hangs on in the NE ( or is reinforced), I think we'll be more likely to see a Miller B as opposed to the nice Miller A we're seeing. I don't ever remember seeing a bombing Miller A riding right up the middle of a strong wedge created by a strong high parked in the NE. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I cannot believe this setup. I don't know how to find accurate climate records for KCHA, but I certainly can't remember two majors snows occurring so close together here. There are still 8 foot high piles of dirty snow in the mall parking lot from the last storm! While I am definitely excited by the potential, if I miss any more class, I'm gonna be in school until July! 3! Christmas then two weeks later Jan 10th storm and now maybe the Late Jan storm WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks for the Central NC love. Oh yeah, if this unfolds exactly as progged five days out, it will be nothing short of a miracle. I honestly don't feel like us in the east will get in on this one. The high is sliding out. ENE winds are not going to do the trick. Never does. The fact that the system is delayed argues for more liquid for more people, especially if we get a bomb (in which case I think a more west track is in play), unless the high holds longer or a new one builds in more quickly than the models show. If the high hangs on in the NE ( or is reinforced), I think we'll be more likely to see a Miller B as opposed to the nice Miller A we're seeing. I don't ever remember seeing a bombing Miller A riding right up the middle of a strong wedge created by a strong high parked in the NE. What do you think? Miller A all the way..........GOOFUS out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well looks like a large chunk of us will not be sleeping tonight. I bet this is when we see the Euro really start locking in the next two days of the same basic pattern but varying QPF...would not be shocked at all if the low tracks a little south and east with the precip shield moving more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 One interesting thing this run for RDU, 0.55" falls between 12 and 18z Wednesday, when the ULL goes over. 850's are 6.4C at 12z Wednes, and -1.2 at 18z, then back up to 0.1C at 0z Thurs. 500 hgts bottom out at 539 dm at 18z Wednes, so something crazy could happen as the low goes overhead, don't know but that looks a lot closer than here. How does the low strengthen that much over land like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 3 inches of QPF on the conservative EURO in a winterstorm... unreal obviously not all snow, but still unreal for this time of year on this model. yeah, not all of VA or the mid Atlantic is snow.. a lot of the heavy stuff is rain for a while. The folks looking strictly at 850s' are in for a shock. This dynamic (and thats an understatement and a half) setup has heavy wet snow written all over it from just west of RDU to just nw of CAE to very near ATL, and of course thats during the heart of the storm, once the sfc low is toward eastern NC then the cold wraps under and around it, so much of NC is snowing at the same time. Its a tight , well organized deepening storm and slow mover , but most importantly the heights are very, very low to begin with. We don't get winter storms like this, but we already have this season, so the dynamic cooling and propensity for it to snow even at threshold temps is going to show itself. If the 5H track goes like that, then 85 corridor ATL to CLT TO GSO is in for a real problem with snow bringing down trees. I don't want this track and intensity, good thing its a few days out and likely to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks for the Central NC love. Oh yeah, if this unfolds exactly as progged five days out, it will be nothing short of a miracle. I honestly don't feel like us in the east will get in on this one. The high is sliding out. ENE winds are not going to do the trick. Never does. The fact that the system is delayed argues for more liquid for more people, especially if we get a bomb (in which case I think a more west track is in play), unless the high holds longer or a new one builds in more quickly than the models show. If the high hangs on in the NE ( or is reinforced), I think we'll be more likely to see a Miller B as opposed to the nice Miller A we're seeing. I don't ever remember seeing a bombing Miller A riding right up the middle of a strong wedge created by a strong high parked in the NE. What do you think? If the upper system is anywhere close to being as strong as the models are showing, the surface high will have little to no effect. You will (like us in ATL) probably have to rely on the upper dynamics for any significant snow, and right now the track may just be a hair too far north and NW. But a lot of time to watch of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Boone would get 2-3 feet from a storm like this. It's too bad we're still 5 days out. I would love to experience another blizzard 93' type storm now that i'm old enough to fully comprehend it. Lol. Same here. I was in 5th grade during that storm. I still remember it well. My kids are gonna go nuts if this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yeah, not all of VA or the mid Atlantic is snow.. a lot of the heavy stuff is rain for a while. The folks looking strictly at 850s' are in for a shock. This dynamic (and thats an understatement and a half) setup has heavy wet snow written all over it from just west of RDU to just nw of CAE to very near ATL, and of course thats during the heart of the storm, once the sfc low is toward eastern NC then the cold wraps under and around it, so much of NC is snowing at the same time. Its a tight , well organized deepening storm and slow mover , but most importantly the heights are very, very low to begin with. We don't get winter storms like this, but we already have this season, so the dynamic cooling and propensity for it to snow even at threshold temps is going to show itself. If the 5H track goes like that, then 85 corridor ATL to CLT TO GSO is in for a real problem with snow bringing down trees. I don't want this track and intensity, good thing its a few days out and likely to change. Correct about the 850s, but the Euro brings ours up to + 5C or so Tuesday afternoon so some rain seems likely. The big ? here is how hast the dynamic cooling takes over, if we can switch over before 06Z than we could get a 6" event, but right now 1-4" is a better wag for our area based on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think I saw someone mention March 1st 09 storm as similar to this setup and yes the surface low tracks are very close on the EURO through about 120hrs. The March 09 500mb low dug a little more south than this one is modeled but actually ends up in about the same spot over the Carolina's. The man difference in this storm and the March 09 storm was that 850mb temperatures were a good bit colder than the one 2009. However this storm looks to have better dynamics associated with it so that may very well make up for that and models could very well be missing the dynamic cooling effect being this is still 4-5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 no one can say what this storm is going to do not even the night before. just look at this past storm i was suppose to get 2-4 inches of snow here in rockingham i ended up with 8.7 inches of snow with a trace of ice. yea people can forecast all day long and get all hyped up over the models but in actuality it comes down to just waiting and seeing what the storm brings us. im not in the good zone for this storm as of now but who knows i was not in it with the last storm either. dont get your hopes up but also dont set them to high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If the upper system is anywhere close to being as strong as the models are showing, the surface high will have little to no effect. You will (like us in ATL) probably have to rely on the upper dynamics for any significant snow, and right now the track may just be a hair too far north and NW. But a lot of time to watch of course. Gotcha. I thought that these storms, though tended to take the path of least resistance, so to speak. With a retreating high (shown) , I can see the progged track working out, but with a strongly damming high anchored in place (assuming things trend that way), it seems like that would have an effect on the track, evolution of the storm. But as you said, the upper dynamics may mitigate that. Still don't recall many systems tracking into the heart of a wedge....but don't recall many superstorms either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think I saw someone mention March 1st 09 storm as similar to this setup and yes the surface low tracks are very close on the EURO through about 120hrs. The March 09 500mb low dug a little more south than this one is modeled but actually ends up in about the same spot over the Carolina's. The man difference in this storm and the March 09 storm was that 850mb temperatures were a good bit colder than the one 2009. However this storm looks to have better dynamics associated with it so that may very well make up for that and models could very well be missing the dynamic cooling effect being this is still 4-5 days away. Can you clarify this? The first part of your sentence implies 2011 storm colder than 2009, but then the second sentence confuses me -- because for this storm to have to "make up" for something would imply it was "behind" in terms of cold air. May just be my old age .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 pressure at RDU 12z wed is 994mb pressure at RIC 18z wed is 984mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Cheez, quite frankly I will take it. This has been one amazing winter. Still 5 days out it may come back to us... wouldn't take much. Thanks for all your commentary. This isn't over by a loooong shot. This might end up being one of the best we've ever had. I'm not counting this one out until the day it happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I didn't remember the March 09 storm being an I-95 runner. But I guess it was inland some. I had just started following weather on forums at that point, so I don't really remember much about it other than we got 6" of snow in GSO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Interesting JMA solution -- more suppressed than its prior runs, then out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 General Euro QPF traced off the pay maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This isn't over by a loooong shot. This might end up being one of the best we've ever had. I'm not counting this one out until the day it happens! Yeah me too, everything is lining up great. I hope some of these amazing model runs will verify. I don't mind having to dig out of my house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This one will have some folks dancing in the streets, some jumping off cliffs (Brick). Some higher elevations in NC will see 1.5-2 feet if this is even close to being true. Need this to close off just a bit farther west/SW for ATL but Dalhonega, Foothills. Mr Bob you will probably get a really big one. Thank for the update for Dahlonega. On the road to disney now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Some qpf numbers through 144: through 144 hours QPF (their estimates) ATL 1.10" AHN 1.05" BHM 1.00" HSV 1.10" MEM .45" BNA .95" JAN 1.05" LIT .20" TYS 1.15" TRI 1.20" AVL 1.20" GSP 1.15" CAE .85" CHS 1.35" ILM 2.10" RDU 2.05" GSO 1.30" ELZ 2.95" RIC 3.10" ORF 3.0" ROA 1.60" DCA 2.95" PHL 2.95" NYC 3.0" PIT .65" Asheville looks to be all snow from this setup. The comparisons of this storm to January 27th 1998 are uncanny. In fact, its a more amplified setup than that storm, implying stronger winds and more precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Low, Strong and Long.... pressure at RDU 12z wed is 994mb pressure at RIC 18z wed is 984mb Thanks John! General Euro QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Can you clarify this? The first part of your sentence implies 2011 storm colder than 2009, but then the second sentence confuses me -- because for this storm to have to "make up" for something would imply it was "behind" in terms of cold air. May just be my old age .... Wouldn't that be the WAA playing havoc on our snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Interesting JMA solution -- more suppressed than its prior runs, then out to sea. That's about right when the Euro and GFS sort of catch on the JMA has to disagree. Still model madness but it looks like the Euro is gonna start taking the bait and sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Cheez, quite frankly I will take it. This has been one amazing winter. Still 5 days out it may come back to us... wouldn't take much. Thanks for all your commentary. KATL has already had a whopping 5.9" of S/IP this winter. This already makes it the heaviest since the incredible 1982-3 winter's 10.3"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Interesting JMA solution -- more suppressed than its prior runs, then out to sea. I take that as a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Interesting JMA solution -- more suppressed than its prior runs, then out to sea. http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_96HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_120HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just looked at the temps again and at 126 teh low has such strong WAA that DCA and PHL are rain and the wraparound is snow in NC. Between 114 and 120 is when the Upstate and western Piedmont verbatim are cold enough for snow and it drops around .30" then with the track and the 850 and slow movement, I think some folks outside teh mountains with dynamic cooling are going to be digging out for a while. Its such a dynamic system that I wouldn't rule out over 1 foot easily in northern GA maybe 18" or so for much of the APP chain down to Blue Ridge GA and up to AVL then of course the northern MTNS and eastern TN will really clean up as usual with 2 foot amounts or so. The dynamics are extremely impressive the bombing and tight 5H on this, so wind, thunder, sleet, mixed bag...you name it , its there. I'm a little confused. Whenever I hear "wrap around" from a storm I cringe. Is the majority of the piedmont/upstate snow supposed to come from wrap around moisture on this EURO run? I guess I'm hearing rain at the onset, then as the system passes to our south it transitions to snow as the system is to our east. Is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://www.wxcaster....eign_models.htm http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_96HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_120HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_144HR.gif Alright, I am officially model hugging the JMA now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Alright, I am officially model hugging the JMA now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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