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The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)


Wow

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at 120, a closed low at 5H right over CLT, th surface low is 996 over RDU, and all of western half of Carolinas is in snow, and northern half of GA and eastern TN western VA. By 126, all of VA is slammed west of the low over the Delmarva. Still snowing in most of NC with wraparound. The APPs are going to get snowed in big time with this track and its good snows for the Upstate and GA and the wraparound with the quickly intensityfing low. What a Windy blizzard type of day thats going to be if it plays out.

Robert, where would you see the rn/snow line running in NC? GSO west a mix and then east all rain?

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pretty much. more like a 93 style track.

But I like the general agreement on a big storm in the area. Just 100 miles more east. :D

This track is amazing for a couple reasons. The low is slow moving. I'm amazed at how the high just sits off Maine coast for so long, the low will literally crawl from eastern GA to eastern VA. Taken literally this is a big snow for western Carolinas, after ice and mix west of CLT to GSO likely maybe further east, and eastern half of TN, n. Ala, N. GA, and as the low gets to Fayetteville then ATL has switched over , well actually well before then really. Its a major snowstorm if the low is that slow and takes that exact track and intensity. Thundersnow under the Upper low over the Piedmont and Upstate region! I'm impressed with the potential on this. I haven't seen other models, just got in. I'll check out the total QPF.

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This track is amazing for a couple reasons. The low is slow moving. I'm amazed at how the high just sits off Maine coast for so long, the low will literally crawl from eastern GA to eastern VA. Taken literally this is a big snow for western Carolinas, after ice and mix west of CLT to GSO likely maybe further east, and eastern half of TN, n. Ala, N. GA, and as the low gets to Fayetteville then ATL has switched over , well actually well before then really. Its a major snowstorm if the low is that slow and takes that exact track and intensity. Thundersnow under the Upper low over the Piedmont and Upstate region! I'm impressed with the potential on this. I haven't seen other models, just got in. I'll check out the total QPF.

GGEM is very similar to Euro.. 12z GFS a dud

It's very march 09'ish to me with the rain/sleet to hvy dynamic snow

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This track will not give RDU any appreciable snow on the front or back end. After the storm passes and moves north, the deformation band will be west of the Triangle. As it slowly moves east, it will weaken and drop no more than an inch on the soaking wet ground.

I think there's still a risk of a more westward track too.

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This one will have some folks dancing in the streets, some jumping off cliffs (Brick). Some higher elevations in NC will see 1.5-2 feet if this is even close to being true. Need this to close off just a bit farther west/SW for ATL but Dalhonega, Foothills. Mr Bob you will probably get a really big one.

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This one will have some folks dancing in the streets, some jumping off cliffs (Brick). Some higher elevations in NC will see 1.5-2 feet if this is even close to being true. Need this to close off just a bit farther west/SW for ATL but Dalhonega, Foothills. Mr Bob you will probably get a really big one.

I'm already climbing one.

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Some qpf numbers through 144:

through 144 hours QPF (their estimates)

ATL 1.10"

AHN 1.05"

BHM 1.00"

HSV 1.10"

MEM .45"

BNA .95"

JAN 1.05"

LIT .20"

TYS 1.15"

TRI 1.20"

AVL 1.20"

GSP 1.15"

CAE .85"

CHS 1.35"

ILM 2.10"

RDU 2.05"

GSO 1.30"

ELZ 2.95"

RIC 3.10"

ORF 3.0"

ROA 1.60"

DCA 2.95"

PHL 2.95"

NYC 3.0"

PIT .65"

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This one will have some folks dancing in the streets, some jumping off cliffs (Brick). Some higher elevations in NC will see 1.5-2 feet if this is even close to being true. Need this to close off just a bit farther west/SW for ATL but Dalhonega, Foothills. Mr Bob you will probably get a really big one.

Cheez, I am a little offended, Dalton,GA just does not get the publicity! Hahaha jk :thumbsup:

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Some qpf numbers through 144:

through 144 hours QPF (their estimates)

ATL 1.10"

AHN 1.05"

BHM 1.00"

HSV 1.10"

MEM .45"

BNA .95"

JAN 1.05"

LIT .20"

TYS 1.15"

TRI 1.20"

AVL 1.20"

GSP 1.15"

CAE .85"

CHS 1.35"

ILM 2.10"

RDU 2.05"

GSO 1.30"

ELZ 2.95"

RIC 3.10"

ORF 3.0"

ROA 1.60"

DCA 2.95"

PHL 2.95"

NYC 3.0"

PIT .65"

Of course most of these cities have rain/mix/ice as a part of the total, I estimate .1-.4 from SW to NE in the ATL Metro area that would be snow.

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Some qpf numbers through 144:

through 144 hours QPF (their estimates)

ATL 1.10"

AHN 1.05"

BHM 1.00"

HSV 1.10"

MEM .45"

BNA .95"

JAN 1.05"

LIT .20"

TYS 1.15"

TRI 1.20"

AVL 1.20"

GSP 1.15"

CAE .85"

CHS 1.35"

ILM 2.10"

RDU 2.05"

GSO 1.30"

ELZ 2.95"

RIC 3.10"

ORF 3.0"

ROA 1.60"

DCA 2.95"

PHL 2.95"

NYC 3.0"

PIT .65"

3 inches of QPF on the conservative EURO in a winterstorm... unreal :blink:

obviously not all snow, but still unreal for this time of year on this model.

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This track will not give RDU any appreciable snow on the front or back end. After the storm passes and moves north, the deformation band will be west of the Triangle. As it slowly moves east, it will weaken and drop no more than an inch on the soaking wet ground.

I think there's still a risk of a more westward track too.

With the surface low passing almost over RDU, and the strength of the storm, front end RN dump followed by "dry-slot," in the correct use of the term, as evidenced by 700mb RH's crashing after 18z Wednesday. Still a lot of uncertainty and for the actual solution to verify as this run depicted, is unlikely. All one has to do is look at the spread in the ens's to see this is far from getting a firm handle on what will happen, and where. This run pumps 850's to 10C here at PGV, a couple more degrees and we could be looking at a svr threat, RDU well over 2.5" of QPF this run, PGV close to 3". :maprain:

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Just looked at the temps again and at 126 teh low has such strong WAA that DCA and PHL are rain and the wraparound is snow in NC. Between 114 and 120 is when the Upstate and western Piedmont verbatim are cold enough for snow and it drops around .30" then with the track and the 850 and slow movement, I think some folks outside teh mountains with dynamic cooling are going to be digging out for a while. Its such a dynamic system that I wouldn't rule out over 1 foot easily in northern GA maybe 18" or so for much of the APP chain down to Blue Ridge GA and up to AVL then of course the northern MTNS and eastern TN will really clean up as usual with 2 foot amounts or so. The dynamics are extremely impressive the bombing and tight 5H on this, so wind, thunder, sleet, mixed bag...you name it , its there.

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I cannot believe this setup. I don't know how to find accurate climate records for KCHA, but I certainly can't remember two majors snows occurring so close together here. There are still 8 foot high piles of dirty snow in the mall parking lot from the last storm! While I am definitely excited by the potential, if I miss any more class, I'm gonna be in school until July!

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Of course most of these cities have rain/mix/ice as a part of the total, I estimate .1-.4 from SW to NE in the ATL Metro area that would be snow.

Cheez, quite frankly I will take it. This has been one amazing winter. Still 5 days out it may come back to us... wouldn't take much. :thumbsup:

Thanks for all your commentary.

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Man that's just mean. That's just mean man.

--James Coburn, "Payback"

One interesting thing this run for RDU, 0.55" falls between 12 and 18z Wednesday, when the ULL goes over. 850's are 6.4C at 12z Wednes, and -1.2 at 18z, then back up to 0.1C at 0z Thurs. 500 hgts bottom out at 539 dm at 18z Wednes, so something crazy could happen as the low goes overhead, don't know but that looks a lot closer than here.

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