Snowacane Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 A Miller "S"*. * S for screw,,,, Otherwise known as the triangle special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I don't know, it's so far away, I'm just going to withhold judgment. it's nice to see the consolidated system and models agree on that. But mostly what I'm seeing is it's just too warm for NC (save mountains/n foothills); mostly a rainstorm for MBY. I keep hearing March 93, well that seems to be about right because the piedmont didn't get much snow from that I don't think, that was a mountains storm for NC. Anyway I'm going to keep listening and tracking but right now I haven't seen anything to really get me excited yet. We need a colder trend, keep the track on the coast, maybe a little off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This has a lot of potential- but unless I were in far western North Carolina, far north GA and eastern TN this is anything but a slam dunk. Check out the 12Z GFS ensembles, still a lot of solutions: For the ATL metro, I think the chance of a huge snow storm is pretty small, but if the second wave really digs strongly and the 500mb vort max comes right overhead than we cold get a few inches. For now I am taking a cautious approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I don't know, it's so far away, I'm just going to withhold judgment. it's nice to see the consolidated system and models agree on that. But mostly what I'm seeing is it's just too warm for NC (save mountains/n foothills); mostly a rainstorm for MBY. I keep hearing March 93, well that seems to be about right because the piedmont didn't get much snow from that I don't think, that was a mountains storm for NC. Anyway I'm going to keep listening and tracking but right now I haven't seen anything to really get me excited yet. We need a colder trend, keep the track on the coast, maybe a little off the coast. I underlined part of your quote that is spot on advise for everyone. Also It's January and not March. I want a coastl hugger 1st because naturally I want all snow, but secondly because I know it's highly likely there wont be rain, but instead freezing rain. The CAD up here in NC will be locked and loaded. That 93 storm as is common with alot of storms mid FEB on are usually snow/rain for various climo reasons. This is a whole different animal surface temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It's pretty crazy to see so much cliff diving already after 1 model run of the GFS and we are still 4+ days away. People need to calm down. yes it is - the last few years the general pattern/set up has repeated. it appears that way this year as well. the last few storms were on the models, off, on, off and then just before the event the precip really increases and temps decrease. anyone expecting the bullseye this far out might as well throw darts. anyone expecting a historic snow, you will probably not be overjoyed. for se peeps who want a winter storm, just hang in there while the models sort things out. until/unless a majority start trending away from se winter precip big time i am not worried at this point. if we are a day out, and none of the models really show any qpf we might just end up with a light event. but hey, anything at this point is a bonus (and hopefully we will have several more bonuses before the end of winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW, the 12 nogaps is pretty much a perfect scenario for Northern Ga, Upstate SC. It implies all snow from atlanta to Columbia northward as the 5h trough goes neutral over GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW, the 12 nogaps is pretty much a perfect scenario for Northern Ga, Upstate SC. It implies all snow from atlanta to Columbia northward as the 5h trough goes neutral over GA. Well, since this model is almost always wrong, this is bad news..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is throwing the upper low down into Oklahoma. Strong CAD, but warm air pouring in aloft as long as we can hold in the cad i could handle it. we havent really had a cad winter storm in a while so it would be fun to track (at least until the power goes out lol) This has a lot of potential- but unless I were in far western North Carolina, far north GA and eastern TN this is anything but a slam dunk. Check out the 12Z GFS ensembles, still a lot of solutions: For the ATL metro, I think the chance of a huge snow storm is pretty small, but if the second wave really digs strongly and the 500mb vort max comes right overhead than we cold get a few inches. For now I am taking a cautious approach. granted a couple of inches/several inches of snow isnt a huge storm, but for n ga thats still a pretty darn decent snowfall. esp with all the snow we have had so far. from what i gather, the last storm was the biggest since the 93 one in this county, so thats almost 20 years. i would probably have a heart attack to get 2 twenty-year storms within a few weeks of each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Anyone got the ukie yet? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Anyone got the ukie yet? Thanks. It's an apps runner. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=6&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro rolling, little change at 36 UKmet totally dampens out the first wave by 72, do not have the longer range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 60 hours, first wave more positive tilt like UKie, some significant changes to the Big Dog wave, could be good, hard to tell yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ukie is not pretty. http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 we should be able to tell A LOT by looking at the EURO as the GFS very early had a very different look at 500. If the Euro isn't much different earlier in the run, then you can just about guess the GOOFUS isn't right for our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ukie is not pretty. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=096&fixhh=1 I-40 peeps and north in Tennessee, actually probably more in Tennessee would like the UKIE, but it would screw a lot of people probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 78 hours, Big Dog a lot different, less consolidated but strong piece digging on the west side in NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Strong digging in the Southern Plains/Texas at 90 and moisture is coming north into the Lower Miss. Valley. AT 96, a Louisian gulf low is formed, and the zero goes from CLT to ATL to MEM to near DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 at 102 the s/w is sharpening up over La/East TX. Major Gulf inflow into the Southeast now, we may have an inland runner. But theres additional energy in teh Central Rockies. Way different than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 HP sliding off shore.. could be an app runner coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yikes for NC. A neg. tilt trough just south of Columbus GA, with the 850s over the Apps. Big snow in nw Ala, Tn (except SE) , mtns of NC Its inland so warm advection is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 @108 1008mb SLP just N of FL panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is like 0z GFS just more west. 0 line thru far W NC at 114. Robust SLP. Hvy snow for TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 at 114 hour , the surface low is 1004 near Augusta, and a closed 5H low over Alabama. Hevy snow Ala, eastern half TN, n. GA and far western NC. The high pressure is just offshore Maine by now, so who knows how much CAD is left in the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro looks like the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yikes for NC. A neg. tilt trough just south of Columbus GA, with the 850s over the Apps. Big snow in nw Ala, Tn (except SE) , mtns of NC Its inland so warm advection is strong. Robert, If you can, will you discuss the timing vs the 0z run? Is it speeding up or slowing down a bit? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro looks like the Canadian. pretty much. more like a 93 style track. But I like the general agreement on a big storm in the area. Just 100 miles more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 114 strong developing upper low in north GA- vort max south of ATL. Big run for far north/far NW GA, western NC and east TN and the mountains. Here, mix to rain back to snow, maybe a couple inches, better the farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 at 120, a closed low at 5H right over CLT, th surface low is 996 over RDU, and all of western half of Carolinas is in snow, and northern half of GA and eastern TN western VA. By 126, all of VA is slammed west of the low over the Delmarva. Still snowing in most of NC with wraparound. The APPs are going to get snowed in big time with this track and its good snows for the Upstate and GA and the wraparound with the quickly intensityfing low. What a Windy blizzard type of day thats going to be if it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I imagine RDU could get into the game on the backside with the track of the H5?? for those who want pictures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This is going to be a drought buster, hopefully. I'm much more optimistic about severe weather than severe winter weather outside of the mountains/foothills. On another note, the GFS maintains the cold and PNA and brings back a -NAO. As long as that's in place, there will be more chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.