POWERSTROKE Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We are getting into the timezone where the Euro is less reliable, and the GFS shines. GFS within 24 not now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can a met or someone with access and time discuss the ensembles of all the models (outside of the GFS) for the 12z suite? I assume the Euro ensembles wont be out for a bit yet, but maybe some of the others will start trickling in soon. Use this link up in the top right hand corner. The euro ensmble off Allan will be out around 4;30 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html We need the bomb scenerio/rapid deepening/phasing in the SE. No matter where your located at, this is a must in order to cool top down. And I think we now have a consensus from all models since last night that we are gonna get a fully phased Miller A Low. Took the GFS awhile, but there is 100% consensus. The next step is to resolve the track & strength. You have some guidance that shifted west at 12 z, primarly the NAM and CAN. But the Euro is been very consistent with its track. Couple this with the fact at 3+ days out still and the GFS is right on par at 12 z with the same track as the euro and its hard to bet against those 2. I would trust this solution more right now than the nam/Can/jma. We should be able to confirm with high confidence this track by Sunday evening after a few more runs. Then it will be a matter of can the strength and dynamics Cool the column on the North and west flank. If so I think someone is gonna get a doozy of a heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well I'm back and it looks like a real nail biter. Nothing like the last 4 where temps looked plenty cold enough. Crap lol As far as the precip, I made a note of it after the last storm the euro was about 0.35 to 0.50 too light across eastern Ga/upstate with that storm. I think it was about right over west/northwest ga or about 0.10 too light. That's not to say it will be the case with this one but it's something to keep in mind. Thanks Lookout. I was thought the Euro was "way" off on precip on the last one. i hadn't lookd to see what actually fell but knew that we got way less than the close to an inch it was showing. I think that has been par for the course up here in the UpState......can't get a decent rain/snow maker for what seems like years. Most systems seem to greatly underperform when it comes to precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We need to get this thread locked & migrate over to the new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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