The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)

[FoothillsNC]

Is there some sort of dry slot or something for WNC/SC? This run seems to be a step towards the GFS actually... which I wasn't expecting.

I can't find a reason for such low qpf and a sfc low that starts in NEW and goes to fl. panhandle then up the coast. At 84 hours the 5H is closing off to our west and the divergence is through the roof over all the western Carolinas, yet at that time it only drops about .25" or so here, and then another .20" once the upper low is passed. It should be a good bit wetter than that, but probably chalk it up to model waffles and chaos factor. With that track, it would be petty dynamic.

The temps east of the mtns are going to be the big challenge. The track is perfect for the 85 corridor GSO CLT GSP AHN but, our temps are a little too warm around +2 for many and the time of day here is bad (mid afternoon start) but the lower hieght field and dyamic cooling and good track may make the difference between sloppy mess, pure rain or fluffy snow. As always, we are too close to call here. Need more time to figure out my back yard, For the mtns and N. GA and N Ala and much of Miss. and southern middle and eastern TN, its all snow, so should be a good one for HSV and Rome to the GA mtns again.

[strongwxnc]

+1

Good post...

This run actually went very close to the Ukie- lasts nights and today's run both had this track.

Remember, the vorrt max that is our storm is still currently in the eastern Pacific, so focusing on really fine precip details is a nice thing for idle chatter but is probably not very valuable at this stage.

[Isopycnic]

My forecast is going with recent climo on this one... Low's going just offshore ILM to MHX to HAT.

[NCSNOW]

I'll take my chances with that track in late January every time. It seems if you look at how the freezing line is going to set up, more east-west based than North-South like we've seen in a lot of recent storms.

Yea youd think the 540 thickness line on day 4 would be oriented n/s and swinging hard into the sw side of the LP at its progged position out over the NE coastal plain. Wed get abot 5 inches of wet snow off the 12z gfs and euro. 2m temps would cool rapidly top down. The track across N Florida and up the coast is textbook. Just need it to wind up strong so we can coll top/down.

Thanks Robert and others for qpf and all other freebies with dissecting model e.t.c.

[FoothillsNC]

The Euro's 2m temp.'s are often warm biased when there is steady precip. falling. Underrneath a 500 mb low with 850's <0C and overcast/steady precip. in mid-winter, temp.'s are not going to be in the high 30's as this Euro shows. Time after time it has verified a good bit too warm over the last few winters in the SE US in similar situations. It would likely in/near the low 30's or possibly some upper 20's.The question isn't if it would be cold enough at 2 meters. The Q is whether or not these 500 mb/SLP/QPF maps will verify. if they were to, this is accumulating snow for areas under the upper low in and around far north GA.

I've noticed the same thing the last few Winters watching its 2M temps. They're really bad. Just recently in the foothills and wrn Piedmont it had us progged at low 50's and we were 35 all day long with snow and rain mix in the higher elevations around HKY for example. With moisture and that track , you can safely shave some numbers off the 2 m temps. To me this looks like a huge n. GA snowstorm, possibly approaching 12" again if the dynamics are truly there like GFS , ECM and other models have, unless it gets too far north and west. That area maximizes the closing off 5H feature and has the temps/moisture. But its still 3 to 4 days out.

[Weather Czar]

Lol.. So nam, jma, ukie, and cmc went west. And the gfs which should be thrown out and the euro went east.

[beanskip]

JMA obliterates Tenn. Valley with one for the ages ...

[keithinala]

The Euro's 2m temp.'s are often warm biased when there is steady precip. falling. Underrneath a 500 mb low with 850's <0C and overcast/steady precip. in mid-winter, temp.'s are not going to be in the high 30's as this Euro shows. Time after time it has verified a good bit too warm over the last few winters in the SE US in similar situations. It would likely in/near the low 30's or possibly some upper 20's.The question isn't if it would be cold enough at 2 meters. The Q is whether or not these 500 mb/SLP/QPF maps will verify. if they were to, this is accumulating snow for areas under the upper low in and around far north GA. For far N GA, this run is suggesting widespread heavy snows of 2-4".

Would be more than that.

[rduwx]

The Euro's 2m temp.'s are often warm biased when there is steady precip. falling. Underrneath a 500 mb low with 850's <0C and overcast/steady precip. in mid-winter, temp.'s are not going to be in the high 30's as this Euro shows. Time after time it has verified a good bit too warm over the last few winters in the SE US in similar situations. It would likely in/near the low 30's or possibly some upper 20's.The question isn't if it would be cold enough at 2 meters. The Q is whether or not these 500 mb/SLP/QPF maps will verify. if they were to, this is accumulating snow for areas under the upper low in and around far north GA. For far N GA, this run is suggesting widespread heavy snows of 2-4".

Thanks Ga...I know there would be dynamic cooling w/ a deepening low like the euro shows but it still doesn't stop me from thinking temps might be an issue. By all means I hope you're right. What can I say, I'm a worrier.

EDIT: Btw, of course I'm talking about mby!

[RaleighWx]

With no high to the northeast, we will have no surface cold air advection source. However, there have been plenty of good snowstorms with no significant high to the north, think Jan 2000, if the track of the surface low is far enough east and enough dynamical cooling occurs from the top down that models often underestimate the surface cooling that occurs. It would be the type of system where under moderate to heavy snow you would cool to 32 or 33 and get a heavy snowstorm, but once the storm and the high UVV's pulled out temps would rise back to to the mid 30s or so.

It is a tricky setup because the models are pretty unified in showing a pretty warm surface to 850mb layer, around 1-2 C for many areas even though 850's themselves are around 0. This would mean in areas where strong upward motion and heavy precip occurs it could easily fall as all snow. Therefore you cant say all snow based just off of a near 0 850 temp, but you cant say no snow because the 875mb to surface layer is 1-2 C.

With that said, I would think the Euro literally is showing a great track for a moderate to significant snowstorm for N Al/N Ga, central/eastern TN/western Carolinas. For RDU it woud probably be mostly rain with some snow on the tail end. The Euro has RDU with surface temps of 7.3C at hour 102 with 850s at -2 with precip falling that seems a little odd.

[BIG FROSTY]

So I went from 1-2 qpf to less .5 in few runs of the euro. Looks like it don't have a clue either. Lol

[burgertime]

Haven't seen the euro yet but it sounds like my initial guess was correct so now the euro tonight will go a little further east only to correct it self sunday night. Same old game we always play folks.

[Carvers Gap]

JMA obliterates Tenn. Valley with one for the ages ...

Oh, good grief!!!!! LOL. Probably, definitely won't verify. But if it did..... :snowman: :snowman:

[tnweathernut]

some QPF

ATL .65"

BHM .85"

HSV 1.10"

BNA 1.00"

MEM .10"

TYS .40"

TRI .25"

JAN .45"

CSG .65"

AHN .70"

CAE .80"

MYR 1.10"

CHS 1.05"

ILM 1.35"

NEW 1.50"

RDU 1.00"

HKY .40"

AVL .45"

CLT .50"

GSO .50"

GSP .45"

RIC 1.25"

No way qpf is that light here in ne TN with a strengthening low pressure running from the southern LA coast to the panhandle and then up the coast. Great looking track again for the mountains, and also for others further east of here too. I think the answer to this riddle lies in between the far west solutions and the 12z Euro.

[SN_Lover]

I have been looking at bufkit data for KAVL, it appears snowfall accumulation forecasts has significantly gone down from yesterday.

[Snow Wisher]

I can't find a reason for such low qpf and a sfc low that starts in NEW and goes to fl. panhandle then up the coast. At 84 hours the 5H is closing off to our west and the divergence is through the roof over all the western Carolinas, yet at that time it only drops about .25" or so here, and then another .20" once the upper low is passed. It should be a good bit wetter than that, but probably chalk it up to model waffles and chaos factor. With that track, it would be petty dynamic.

The temps east of the mtns are going to be the big challenge. The track is perfect for the 85 corridor GSO CLT GSP AHN but, our temps are a little too warm around +2 for many and the time of day here is bad (mid afternoon start) but the lower hieght field and dyamic cooling and good track may make the difference between sloppy mess, pure rain or fluffy snow. As always, we are too close to call here. Need more time to figure out my back yard, For the mtns and N. GA and N Ala and much of Miss. and southern middle and eastern TN, its all snow, so should be a good one for HSV and Rome to the GA mtns again.

Thanks for mentioning Mississippi! Please keep us included in your discussion if you could. Not any mets from MS on here that I can tell. Located in East Central MS.

Thanks again!!

[Cheeznado]

I wonder if FFC will finally raise the POP above 50% LOL.....now they do not have the GFS as an excuse anymore.

[Weather Czar]

I have been looking at bufkit data for KAVL, it appears snowfall accumulation forecasts has significantly gone down from yesterday.

What? Yesterday the gfs was a clipper/ millet b that gave western nc nothing. Today its around .5.

[Carvers Gap]

The models might go west this model suite... but I am pretty sure the models won't be able to go any further west than what the 12z UKMET and 12z GGEM are depicting. The 500mb trough located over Canada simply won't allow it. It will force our shortwave to come far enough east to prevent this from being a lakes cutter. Now if our shortwave cuts early, a lot of folks will start off as rain... but as the 500mb low passes overhead, dynamical cooling will take over and many locations, even east of the Appalachians will go over to heavy wet snow for a time. It certainly isn't optimal, but Just a small shift east would put GA and WNC back in the game in a huge way.

And so it is...I totally agree. There is a limit to just how far west this can go. The Euro, for the most part, is holding it's "slight" inland runner track. Looks great for Asheville. I still think E TN (especially the northern Valley) will be unable to cash-in w/ a low that far south as I was stating last night. I think the Euro may be a tad too far east on this run. Most other models (minus the GFS) are west of the Euro. That said, I think the track is somewhere between the NAM, UK, Canadian, Japanese Models and the Euro. I'll still think a track, as I mentioned a couple of days ago, from Mobile to inside Hatteras seems most plausible. Models aside, E TN is a toss-up IMO. Central to western North Carolina(as well as north Georgia) look to really be in the bullseye.

What is the bias of the Euro at this point?

[HKY_WX]

Haven't seen the euro yet but it sounds like my initial guess was correct so now the euro tonight will go a little further east only to correct it self sunday night. Same old game we always play folks.

Agreed. Still have 4 days of runs to go. I'm just glad we trended towards a major closed off bomb last night/today. That bodes well for at least something. We can work out the details later. But as far as I'm concerned, the stronger the better in this situation as it increases the dynamics. We just need the right track and timing.

[Shawn]

The Euro has been consistent with it's .80 QPF for the CAE region for quite a few runs the last couple days. So I assume we will most likely get some good drought relief.

I'm very unimpressed this far down with both the atmosphere, ground, and surface air temps. Thankfully ice will be a little hard to get if those estimates are right.

Our local mets have started calling for ice/snow/mix. I don't buy it whatsoever. The further Northward away from Metro CAE you go, the chances rise for something wintry of course. . Cold air will be around sure, but the track of the low is not favorable climo speaking for snow down in these parts. For CAE to get a substantial snow chance, we generally need the low to track across North Central Florida. I believe the Feb 12th 2010 snow was around that area along with that monster Feb 1973 snow. If the low hugs the coast, and starts to bomb we still are not in a favorable area as we need it further east to keep the warm air out aloft down here.

Also years of experience have shown if Dallas and ATL get good snow, CAE generally sees something also. If GSP is progged to get something pretty big, rarely do we get anything worth talking about. It's rare to get all of GA,SC,and NC in on the snow in one storm without leaving some areas out due to QPF issues or temp profile problems due to track. The last storm's track here in CAE was not favorable for snow neither was the Christmas one although it was very cold aloft both times. The Christmas storm got NC pretty good, so we missed a big one here.

With all of that said, if this storm speeds up and the precip can arrive in the CAE region Monday night after 12am and before 8am, there will be huge differences and I wouldn't count on it all being snow due to track once again. That's just my 2 cents though and I cannot make any promises based on this information. Maybe the wedge will be good here, maybe not. Don't count on a ton of snow at this point though!

[SN_Lover]

What? Yesterday the gfs was a clipper/ millet b that gave western nc nothing. Today its around .5.

Here is the website: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kavl

[strongwxnc]

who is feeling lucky on starting a new thread to continue the disco??

[tnweathernut]

Can a met or someone with access and time discuss the ensembles of all the models (outside of the GFS) for the 12z suite? I assume the Euro ensembles wont be out for a bit yet, but maybe some of the others will start trickling in soon.

[Lookout]

I can't find a reason for such low qpf and a sfc low that starts in NEW and goes to fl. panhandle then up the coast. At 84 hours the 5H is closing off to our west and the divergence is through the roof over all the western Carolinas, yet at that time it only drops about .25" or so here, and then another .20" once the upper low is passed. It should be a good bit wetter than that, but probably chalk it up to model waffles and chaos factor. With that track, it would be petty dynamic.

The temps east of the mtns are going to be the big challenge. The track is perfect for the 85 corridor GSO CLT GSP AHN but, our temps are a little too warm around +2 for many and the time of day here is bad (mid afternoon start) but the lower hieght field and dyamic cooling and good track may make the difference between sloppy mess, pure rain or fluffy snow. As always, we are too close to call here. Need more time to figure out my back yard, For the mtns and N. GA and N Ala and much of Miss. and southern middle and eastern TN, its all snow, so should be a good one for HSV and Rome to the GA mtns again.

Well I'm back and it looks like a real nail biter. Nothing like the last 4 where temps looked plenty cold enough. Crap lol

As far as the precip, I made a note of it after the last storm the euro was about 0.35 to 0.50 too light across eastern Ga/upstate with that storm. I think it was about right over west/northwest ga or about 0.10 too light. That's not to say it will be the case with this one but it's something to keep in mind.

[bta0812]

With all of the trashing of the GFS it'll probably end up being right, even though it took it 20 years to acknowledge the existence of a storm.

[Shawn]

With all of the trashing of the GFS it'll probably end up being right, even though it took it 20 years to acknowledge the existence of a storm.

We are getting into the timezone where the Euro is less reliable, and the GFS shines.

[Marion_NC_WX]

New Thread...I've been lucky the past 16 months in the snow dept. Lets hope that continues...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9981-jan-2526-storm-threat/

[Jon]

Agreed. Still have 4 days of runs to go. I'm just glad we trended towards a major closed off bomb last night/today. That bodes well for at least something. We can work out the details later. But as far as I'm concerned, the stronger the better in this situation as it increases the dynamics. We just need the right track and timing.

+1. Exactly what I'm thinking. If RDU wants a chance it's all on the dynamics, even if track and speed is perfect. Happy to see the coastal solutions for sure.

[Lee]

No way qpf is that light here in ne TN with a strengthening low pressure running from the southern LA coast to the panhandle and then up the coast. Great looking track again for the mountains, and also for others further east of here too. I think the answer to this riddle lies in between the far west solutions and the 12z Euro.

It's really overdoing the downslope deal in the great valley of east Tennessee, i.m.o.. Sure, strong enough easterly component wind flow you're going to get a decrease in QPF there but, I don't see any strong winds from that direction indicated so, looks to be wrong with it's qpf for said area.