packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This may be west. At 60 hours theres moisture building in the western Gulf and the trough is tilting strongly in western Plains. I almost typed it looks weaker and east but goes to show what I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 78, the zero is in N. GA and wrn NC mtns, and points west. The low is in the NE Gulf and the trough is neutral at MISS River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 78, the zero is in N. GA and wrn NC mtns, and points west. The low is in the NE Gulf and the trough is neutral at MISS River. Looks like its not nearly as far west as the UKMET and GGEM... good signs for us in WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think this is going to be a great run fir TN, far northern AL and northern 1/4 of GA- low already closed near MEM at 78 but surface low still in GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks neutral at 84 and sfc low crossing the fl panhandle....goes neg tilt at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like the GFS (smidge quicker than GFS), looks really warm at the surface in all the Carolina's except Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 84, the sfc. low is in FL panhandle and the trough is neutral tilt in southern Alabama. Pretty nice snow in Ala, n. GA and wrn NC and southern and middle TN and much of Miss. At 90 hour, theres a closed 5H over NW GA and a surface 1004 over coastal SC, so its no "bomb" but its a hefty snow in n. Ala, N. GA and southern Apps in general. At 90 hour is when the 85 corridor in GSO to CLT TO AHN is cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 996 right around OBX at hr 96....actually this doesn't look bad for the RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Due to closed upper low, 12Z Euro looks good for ~2-4" of snow in much of N GA from mainly the northern ATL burbs north late 1/25-early 1/26! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think this is going to be a great run fir TN, far northern AL and northern 1/4 of GA- low already closed near MEM at 78 but surface low still in GOM Dsaur, We may need to start looking toward Groundhog day. I'm happy with tons of rain, though, we need it! Got to prepare for the summer heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, that is not inland.... Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 850 line is running through CLT up 85 as the SLP is off SC coast and then moves just east of RDU at 96. The surface is so warm for everyone except the mountains. It's a perfect SLP track for the piedmont/central NC's, but it's so warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at 96 hour, RDU to CAE is the 850 line and the coastal is 996 over NE NC. I haven't studied the qpf much but it should be several inches of snow once youre to the west of the sfc low from GA to NC, SC. The temps are barely cold aloft, even under the 5H, so this is no cold storm. at 102 its off the Delmarva and bombng the big cities...they're barely cold enough. Looks like from RDU points northeast got a big hit on the west side of the strenghtening sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 something seems off on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Taken literally the winners here are clearly NW GA, SE and central TN and northeast AL. The details with the phasing or lack thereof after that are unclear, this is a big shift from the previous run regarding where it goes after it exits GA- still some uncertainty with details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Dsaur, We may need to start looking toward Groundhog day. I'm happy with tons of rain, though, we need it! Got to prepare for the summer heat. Still time to get that upper low south of us enough so we don't get the dregs again. Still, if Tenn. can get happy, then I'm content to wait until the next one. I don't have much hope for us until the blocking gets back, but I takes my chances where I can get 'em, lol. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 850 line is running through CLT up 85 as the SLP is off SC coast and then moves just east of RDU at 96. The surface is so warm for everyone except the mountains. It's a perfect SLP track for the piedmont/central NC's, but it's so warm at the surface. Yeah, I agree....looks like 2m temps are around 38 or so at 96 hr and it looks like it got up to the high 40's on Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 so heavy snow for nga or heavy rain? maybe heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 QPF rough estimates. CLT - 0.5" to 0.75" (closer to 0.5", very close to the 0.25" to 0.5" bndry) INT - 0.5" to 0.75" (closer to 0.5", very close to the 0.25" to 0.5" bndry) GSO - 0.75" to 1" RDU - 1" to 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 some QPF ATL .65" BHM .85" HSV 1.10" BNA 1.00" MEM .10" TYS .40" TRI .25" JAN .45" CSG .65" AHN .70" CAE .80" MYR 1.10" CHS 1.05" ILM 1.35" NEW 1.50" RDU 1.00" HKY .40" AVL .45" CLT .50" GSO .50" GSP .45" RIC 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 These 24 hour increments never show GSO 850's above zero, so I cant tell if all our moisture stays all snow, but Id think north of 40 west of 85 roughly in NC the euro qpf is all snow. we'll see in a minute. matches the gfs and gfs ensemble thermile profiles nicely IMO. No doubt its gonna require this track and rapid deepening in order to dynamically keep our column cold enough for snow. Im liking where Triad is at. GFS and Euro do us good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 some QPF ATL .65" BHM .85" HSV 1.10" BNA 1.00" MEM .10" TYS .40" TRI .25" JAN .45" CSG .65" AHN .70" CAE .80" MYR 1.10" CHS 1.05" ILM 1.35" NEW 1.50" RDU 1.00" HKY .40" AVL .45" CLT .50" GSO .50" GSP .45" RIC 1.25" thanks Robert! I hope you're feeling better. I'm happy with the track on the Euro, keep the track and let the details work themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 image via wxbrad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 some QPF ATL .65" BHM .85" HSV 1.10" BNA 1.00" MEM .10" TYS .40" TRI .25" JAN .45" CSG .65" AHN .70" CAE .80" MYR 1.10" CHS 1.05" ILM 1.35" NEW 1.50" RDU 1.00" HKY .40" AVL .45" CLT .50" GSO .50" GSP .45" RIC 1.25" Is there some sort of dry slot or something for WNC/SC? This run seems to be a step towards the GFS actually... which I wasn't expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 These 24 hour increments never show GSO 850's above zero, so I cant tell if all our moisture stays all snow, but Id think north of 40 west of 85 roughly in NC the euro qpf is all snow. we'll see in a minute. matches the gfs and gfs ensemble thermile profiles nicely IMO. No doubt its gonna require this track and rapid deepening in order to dynamically keep our column cold enough for snow. Im liking where Triad is at. GFS and Euro do us good. I'll take my chances with that track in late January every time. It seems if you look at how the freezing line is going to set up, more east-west based than North-South like we've seen in a lot of recent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Still time to get that upper low south of us enough so we don't get the dregs again. Still, if Tenn. can get happy, then I'm content to wait until the next one. I don't have much hope for us until the blocking gets back, but I takes my chances where I can get 'em, lol. Tony Oh, don't get me wrong, I'll be watching for the upper low to dig further south. Without the dynamic cooling, I'm too far south without a strong high pressure to funnel cold air in from the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 some QPF ATL .65" BHM .85" HSV 1.10" BNA 1.00" MEM .10" TYS .40" TRI .25" JAN .45" CSG .65" AHN .70" CAE .80" MYR 1.10" CHS 1.05" ILM 1.35" NEW 1.50" RDU 1.00" HKY .40" AVL .45" CLT .50" GSO .50" GSP .45" RIC 1.25" That's quite a drop in precip for the upstate and given that the initial would be rain that would pretty much equal the Christmas storm. But the 0Z or tomorrow's 12Z may go back to an inch so no biggie to me, just a change in track which is expected. A lot more details and fine tuning to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This run actually went very close to the Ukie- lasts nights and today's run both had this track. Remember, the vorrt max that is our storm is still currently in the eastern Pacific, so focusing on really fine precip details is a nice thing for idle chatter but is probably not very valuable at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah, I agree....looks like 2m temps are around 38 or so at 96 hr. The Euro's 2m temp.'s are often warm biased when there is steady precip. falling. Underrneath a 500 mb low with 850's <0C and overcast/steady precip. in mid-winter, temp.'s are not going to be in the high 30's as this Euro shows. Time after time it has verified a good bit too warm over the last few winters in the SE US in similar situations. It would likely in/near the low 30's or possibly some upper 20's.The question isn't if it would be cold enough at 2 meters. The Q is whether or not these 500 mb/SLP/QPF maps will verify. if they were to, this is accumulating snow for areas under the upper low in and around far north GA. For far N GA, this run is suggesting widespread heavy snows of 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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