WxKnurd Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hey, at least we don't have to be tied to our computers all weekend since the fail indicator is now solidly lit. At least Falls Lake will rise enough with all the rain Raleigh is about to get so I can fish some the back ends of creeks this year . (And this might eventually apply to Lake Norman too, haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That's because they show the 995 sitting on top of Foothills house. Pretty far inland for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I wouldn't bet good money. Now the pattern is a LOT different than ALL winter, we could see the north and west trends commence. I'd put good money that there will be a BIG TIME storm, but to pin it down this far out is anyone's guess. If I were in the southern apps, I'd feel about as good as you could feel at this point. Seems like the Canadian has a northwest bias though. Is that correct? FWIW, that looks like liquid for NE TN - and a lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 At least Falls Lake will rise enough with all the rain Raleigh is about to get so I can fish some the back ends of creeks this year . (And this might eventually apply to Lake Norman too, haha) Yeppers. We badly need the rain. I'm thinking we need to get some severe weather people in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The models might go west this model suite... but I am pretty sure the models won't be able to go any further west than what the 12z UKMET and 12z GGEM are depicting. The 500mb trough located over Canada simply won't allow it. It will force our shortwave to come far enough east to prevent this from being a lakes cutter. Now if our shortwave cuts early, a lot of folks will start off as rain... but as the 500mb low passes overhead, dynamical cooling will take over and many locations, even east of the Appalachians will go over to heavy wet snow for a time. It certainly isn't optimal, but Just a small shift east would put GA and WNC back in the game in a huge way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If anybody cares, the GFS ensemble mean looks really good! All of NC sees snow while on the Canadian none of NC shows snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the ukmet low pressure track looks good for wnc and the upstate the cmc is terrible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Seems like the Canadian has a northwest bias though. Is that correct? FWIW, that looks like liquid for NE TN - and a lot of it. I haven't really paid a lot of attention to its bias, but it's not usually very accurate in this timeframe. I think an inland runner is likely but not as far as the GGEM is showing........and now that every model is showing a big storm, it will be a matter of looking at trends for the next 24-48 hours before a sensible forecast is made. 50-100 mile shifts and strength of the storm will make a HUGE difference in weather across this boards area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 JMA looks like it's going to be west, hard to tell though. JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The models might go west this model suite... but I am pretty sure the models won't be able to go any further west than what the 12z UKMET and 12z GGEM are depicting. The 500mb trough located over Canada simply won't allow it. It will force our shortwave to come far enough east to prevent this from being a lakes cutter. Now if our shortwave cuts early, a lot of folks will start off as rain... but as the 500mb low passes overhead, dynamical cooling will take over and many locations, even east of the Appalachians will go over to heavy wet snow for a time. It certainly isn't optimal, but Just a small shift east would put GA and WNC back in the game in a huge way. Great post, i was just about to hint at the same thing. The PNA location and atlantic blocking do not favor an apps runner at all. Of course they don't support a solution off of the coast really either. I honestly think the euro from last night is a pretty decent middle of the road solution that will end up verifying. IMO the models are just now latching on to the phase, but the details haven't been worked out yet. I agree with others however, that this is probably a lost cause if you're east of GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Anxiously awaiting the Euro but this has the look and feel of what I call a "catbird" storm. A week later the cats get all the extra milk and the stale bread is thrown out into the yard for the birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 JMA looks like it's going to be west, hard to tell though. JMA JMA is good for I-40-ish, with surface temperatures being below the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I won't be around for the Euro as I have business to attend, I'll hoping it trends in our direction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well....so far the models have cleared up nothing! Off to BAMA to see the folks this afternoon. Hopefully, things will clear up a bit before, say, Monday?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Great post, i was just about to hint at the same thing. The PNA location and atlantic blocking do not favor an apps runner at all. Of course they don't support a solution off of the coast really either. I honestly think the euro from last night is a pretty decent middle of the road solution that will end up verifying. IMO the models are just now latching on to the phase, but the details haven't been worked out yet. I agree with others however, that this is probably a lost cause if you're east of GSO. Try living on the GSO Line. If im not the transition line, it will only require a 30 mile drive east or west to see it. Usually how it works IMBY. Does anyone have the Ukie surface map Day 4 & 5 12z. Last night it hugged the coast and Im hearing inland, which implies probably coastal plain or eatsern piedmont. Just curious and if you can name a town on day 4 and day 5 that will be enough info. The Euro 0z is a perfect prog /middle ground based on all the new 12z runs. It was a slight inside the coast runner GA/SC till about NC, then hugged the coast. by about 50 miles. Im betting it shows the same or maybe a notch futher west. We will see in a few minutes. By the way loving the high of 38 that was forecasted for here today. Sitting in the 20's with some WC. Robert stated the other day he thought wed have a hard time getting to 32 Saturday and I beleive hell be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well....so far the models have cleared up nothing! Off to BAMA to see the folks this afternoon. Hopefully, things will clear up a bit before, say, Monday?! I would respectfully disagree with your statement. The models have cleared up a LOT, just not in regards to a track or strength of a storm system. What have they cleared up you might ask? 1. There will be a low pressure around the gulf coast, that will be strengthening as it moves, perhaps rapidly. 2. The storm system will have snow, probably heavy to the north and west of the track. 3. The GFS is really really bad 4. Good consensus for a negatively tilted phasing trough in the southeast. The only things we don't know are WHO will get the heavy snow at this point and who ends up with rain. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 HPC's 5 day total for precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro's rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would respectfully disagree with your statement. The models have cleared up a LOT, just not in regards to a track or strength of a storm system. What have they cleared up you might ask? 1. There will be a low pressure around the gulf coast, that will be strengthening as it moves, perhaps rapidly. 2. The storm system will have snow, probably heavy to the north and west of the track. 3. The GFS is really really bad 4. Good consensus for a negatively tilted phasing trough in the southeast. The only things we don't know are WHO will get the heavy snow at this point and who ends up with rain. JMO Well, that's the bottom line of what I was talking about! You are right, of course. I was being somewhat facetious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 HPC's 5 day total for precip I'll take the precip for that! I just want to say thanks for all the info so far....been really great to read and actually understand a lot of this...keep up the great work, and am looking forward to tracking this til the end with ya'll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, just looked at things again and I think the trends are all very good- at least for north GA. The GFS has finally got a clue, but since it the last to the party it still cannot be trusted with details, We now finally have very good consensus of a strengthening negative tilt upper low passing right overhead or just tto my south- which is perfect for a dynamic cooling storm. Someone in north GA should get a changeover to heavy wet snow- best chance still in the north Metro into the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Through 54 hours, can't see much change yet. Theres a strong 968 low in teh Maritimes and 1032 high in NY, with a sharpening wave in the Wrn. Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, just looked at things again and I think the trends are all very good- at least for north GA. The GFS has finally got a clue, but since it the last to the party it still cannot be trusted with details, We now finally have very good consensus of a strengthening negative tilt upper low passing right overhead or just tto my south- which is perfect for a dynamic cooling storm. Someone in north GA should get a changeover to heavy wet snow- best chance still in the north Metro into the mountains. Much appreciated Cheez! I wonder if Daltonwx is sneaking a peek at this from Disney? I sure miss him working in tandem with you for us GA guys. Cedric has been stepping it up for us too and that is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Heres the day 2 pic for yall to view why Robert and gang report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro through 60, maybe a smidge faster if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This may be west. At 60 hours theres moisture building in the western Gulf and the trough is tilting strongly in western Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, just looked at things again and I think the trends are all very good- at least for north GA. The GFS has finally got a clue, but since it the last to the party it still cannot be trusted with details, We now finally have very good consensus of a strengthening negative tilt upper low passing right overhead or just tto my south- which is perfect for a dynamic cooling storm. Someone in north GA should get a changeover to heavy wet snow- best chance still in the north Metro into the mountains. Thus you can understand why I'm pulling for that low to go over Thomasville, or Tallahassee would be better. But, yeah, NeGa. is once again in the cat bird seat as of now. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, just looked at things again and I think the trends are all very good- at least for north GA. The GFS has finally got a clue, but since it the last to the party it still cannot be trusted with details, We now finally have very good consensus of a strengthening negative tilt upper low passing right overhead or just tto my south- which is perfect for a dynamic cooling storm. Someone in north GA should get a changeover to heavy wet snow- best chance still in the north Metro into the mountains. Good to see you fairly optimistic. At risk of getting a slap on the wrist, do you see the possibility of a March '09 type of deal where there is a relatively small swath of good accums with little/nothing to the north and south? Or would there be enough cold air present to allow for a truly widespread storm? As I understand, dynamical cooling is entirely dependent on rates, so those who are under weaker returns would have a hard time remaining snow or at least getting sub freezing sfc temps. After that disaster those of us north/northwest of Atlanta cringe when we hear that precip type/accum is dependent on dynamical cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 72 hours A low south of NEW and the HP has slid totally out to sea. Precip in Tenn, Ms, Ala. (snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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