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The January 25/26 Storm (Part 2)


Wow

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Remember the trend this far out!

Everything! lows, pieces of energy all tend to be prog. to go east only to be brought back west as the storm approaches. If we had of been in the sweet spot every run I would be worried about a APPS runner, as the finial outcome. But, because of the trend that we all know I feel even more confident. Snowman.gif

There will be some jumping off the cliff folks this weekend, but keep a sense of calm knowing the seasonal trend.

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This model flipping is driving me crazy. Looks like NEGA (Athens) may be in for a mix of everything as of now. More than likely, we are looking at a cold rain for the main portion of the precip.

even Athens would be dammed in hard. If there is precip, it would be frozen or freezing in this setup.

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I for one am not too worried about the GFS because this is about the time it usually is too progressive and east with things. It will usually trend back within 84 hours or less.

We may not get the bomb it showed earlier but I would think we will see a much larger system in the SE than it showed at 12z.

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I think with the low running up the coast there will be more precip with this storm ( currently shown on the 12 GFS). Even now it shows maybe 1-2 inches for central NC. I think this is a great setup with many more changes; hopefully for the good of all.

It could be good with a few tweaks, but quite often in these situations, western NC gets some precip and far eastern NC gets some precip with the central part of the state left high and dry. Not saying it will happen here, but if things really do play out this way, I wouldn't assume that the models are significantly underdoing the QPF here.

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People are reading too much into the details and the details are way too far away. I'm getting snow (in my mind) unless 2 days away the models say I'm not, and even then I'm not so sure, I watched the models flip all over the place last time too. I watched FFC go weaker and weaker with the last storm and you see what we got. I just can't place much faith in any model detail right now, but once they start to nail down the track a little more, then we'll see.

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GGEM looks more amplified with the incoming s/w at 60 hrs... definitely further west than the 12z GFS. 1038mb HP over SE Can at 72hrs. Excellent setup there.

I think there may be come confusion on the board here about the s/w coming in further west. I saw some posts dealing with the 84hr NAM earlier. The s/w dropping in further west is a good thing I believe because it allows the system to drop further south and dig. I don't believe it means that our Low pressure/Storm will be on a further west/inland track. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

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I think there may be come confusion on the board here about the s/w coming in further west. I saw some posts dealing with the 84hr NAM earlier. The s/w dropping in further west is a good thing I believe because it allows the system to drop further south and dig. I don't believe it means that our Low pressure/Storm will be on a further west/inland track. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Prior to today it was too far west and cutting off energy over the SW. 12z GFS was too far east and progressive with the trough.

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I think there may be come confusion on the board here about the s/w coming in further west. I saw some posts dealing with the 84hr NAM earlier. The s/w dropping in further west is a good thing I believe because it allows the system to drop further south and dig. I don't believe it means that our Low pressure/Storm will be on a further west/inland track. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Farther west = way more moisture, but way more warm air moving in aloft. Snow line moves roughly from NC/SC border to NC/VA border as precip moves in. GGEM is a big time ice storm whoever stays below freezing east of the Apps.

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ratgold.jpg

LOL... I'll be as happy as that once I'm buried in it.

If the Euro pulls this off in the next hour, I'll be model addicted for the next 4 days. This is good that the 0z GFS has support now. Curious to see the GGEM ensembles now.

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