packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Is this setup similar to the Dec 2009 storm. I thought that storm had to rely on the storm dynamics for cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKMET Day 3 shows 1009mb LP in south LA. Trough still positively tilted, but HP moving out. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110122163753.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 if i had to guess, i would say it's going to take it up central ga/sc/nc. I agree. Its not an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Since JB and everyone else is mentioning it, here was the blizz of 93 phase/storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Sorry to be off topic but check out how many folks are reading this topic right now...if the storm is still on track Monday could be record breaking for our region. 269 User(s) are reading this topic 145 members, 116 guests, 8 anonymous user This would explain why: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/335-location-demographics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looking at critical thicknesses (1000-850mb), the 1300m line stays right along the Apps throughout the event. The 850 0C line is a little closer to us, but a quick look at the sounding reveals temps as high as 2.5C at 925mb and that quickly soars into the 5C category as the storm progresses. Honestly, in my opinion there is absolutely no way RDU will see any frozen precipitation unless this whole thing speeds up dramatically...and that is not likely to happen at this stage of the game. Thank you. I don't see how we are going to get any appreciable snow from this. The system being delayed has killed this for a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A look at GFS partial thicknesses show 1000-850mb thicknesses are betwee 1300-1310 m for the entire event in western NC/NWSC so even there the GFS has a pretty warm boundary layer. Now if high UVV's are realized it would probably overcme that to an extent since the warmth is between 850 and the surface. From a forecasting standpoint it is nice to see the GFS join the other models. We are seeing a consensus form and should narrow down on the details. Still like the mountains for a substantial snow and the way it looks now most rain east of I-77 in NC. It could all change but that is how it looks now. Bring on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 A look at GFS partial thicknesses show 1000-850mb thicknesses are betwee 1300-1310 m for the entire event in western NC/NWSC so even there the GFS has a pretty warm boundary layer. Now if high UVV's are realized it would probably overcme that to an extent since the warmth is between 850 and the surface. From a forecasting standpoint it is nice to see the GFS join the other models. We are seeing a consensus form and should narrow down on the details. Still like the mountains for a substantial snow and the way it looks now most rain east of I-77 in NC. It could all change but that is how it looks now. Bring on the 12z Euro. Bring on the next storm . But yes it is looking like an I-77 special for sure in my eyes as well. Anyone east of there my suggestion is to rent a movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Bring on the next storm . But yes it is looking like an I-77 special for sure in my eyes as well. Anyone east of there my suggestion is to rent a movie. Darn, I'm 15 miles east of 77 But I need the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Darn, I'm 15 miles east of 77 hahah well give or take 20 or so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Thanks bnmdjm and Allan for the update. Nice to know what we're looking at here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Canadian going inland and slower-- MUCH warmer east of the Apps (and west of them too for that matter). SLP which was just inland of Myrtle Beach is back over West Central Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Enjoy your analysis very much. One question. What do you think about surface temps for somewhere like Huntsville, Al...models keep trying to show it as rain and above freezing, with over an inch of QPF. Should we be worried about that? once you get under heavy precip, the snow will bring 30 or 32 degrees to the surface. You have a high to your west bringing the cold. I have to disagree with you about the surface high; it is completely offshore by hour 72. There is a weak hybrid-cad signature for a while, but I think it's pretty obvious that we quickly lose all caa as we progress beyond 72 hours. Looks to me like the model partially breaks the high, as they sometimes do in storms, I think its trying to maintain some high pressure inland b/c of the 5H confluence there in eastern Canada. I don't think you can say it bodily slides out to sea, but part of it does, yet it doesn't really matter so much I don't think since we're dealing with In-situ CAD and dynamics aloft . This storm looks very similar to Mar 2009 , I'd bet its heading up the coast and more inland than the GFS is showing, as thats more climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is truly bizzaro world. The mets on here (good and reliable ones too) are calling for this (snow event) to be more in Western NC, yet RAH still keeps with their idea the Triangle is in the mix area. Usually, it's the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12Z CMC cuts inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z Canadian has LP @ 84HR in almost same place as NAM Edit: Almost a carbon copy with 1004mb LP in SW GA. http://www.weatherof...ast/233_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ungodly QPF with 12z Canadian. Canadian going inland and slower-- MUCH warmer east of the Apps (and west of them too for that matter). SLP which was just inland of Myrtle Beach is back over West Central Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This thing is coming up the middle of NC IMO and will be quite a rain storm for most of NC outside the mountains who will get buried as usual. With the Canadian and NAM showing basically the same solution, something is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ungodly QPF with 12z Canadian. I'll put good money what actually happens is south and east of what the Canadian is showing. All winter, it has been sending systems far too north. Now, the set-up may be different this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So basically we have the Ukie and Canadian going back inland. The nam is inland and the gfs, which just joined the party, hugs the coast. An inland track still looks like the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS long range looks somewhat colder than normal throughout, thanks to a -PNA pattern. There is no hint of a west-based -NAO or Greenland block returning. There is a series of moderate to strong HPs diving into the Rockies and sliding SE through the Plains and east off the mid-Atlantic. Without perfect timing, this pattern in most cases will yield cold with warm-ups before precipitation events OR cold and dry. It will be difficult to get a SE winter storm out of this kind of pattern without perfect timing, which is not impossible. At least there's no torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 At hour 72 there is southeasterly flow throughout PA, NY and easterly flow further northeast. There isn't a hint of northerly flow along the entire eastern seaboard, so I don't honestly see any sort of high pressure being inland. The only thing I see, as you said, is some hybrid-cad going on in NC where it is precipitating, but that rapidly erodes as strong WAA washes it out. Yes further north the winds are sely, but in the western sections of the Carolinas our surface winds are northeasterly, so its not classical damming, but residual. One thing about banking on "washing out" low level cold here with a surface low to our south, I've seen that fail numerous times. Depends on how low our wetbulbs are to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So basically we have the Ukie and Canadian going back inland. The nam is inland and the gfs, which just joined the party, hugs the coast. An inland track still looks like the way to go. Well if the 12z GFS can't give us snow with an almost perfect SLP track like it just showed than there is truly no hope for anyone east of 85. Wwith the other models falling inline to Apps runners which would give us a warm rain, I guess that's better than a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm getting a bad feeling the EURO will go west with the rest, NAM, CMC,UKIE Like Alan said this may be mountains snows and rain for the rest of us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Either way, I think we can all agree that no matter if frozen precip falls or just plain rain, we need the water to help out our rainfall deficit situation. Now of course we all want snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'll put good money what actually happens is south and east of what the Canadian is showing. All winter, it has been sending systems far too north. Now, the set-up may be different this time... I wouldn't bet good money. Now the pattern is a LOT different than ALL winter, we could see the north and west trends commence. I'd put good money that there will be a BIG TIME storm, but to pin it down this far out is anyone's guess. If I were in the southern apps, I'd feel about as good as you could feel at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hey, at least we don't have to be tied to our computers all weekend since the fail indicator is now solidly lit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hey, at least we don't have to be tied to our computers all weekend since the fail indicator is now solidly lit. Speak for your own backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Speak for your own backyard. You better hope the Euro holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Canadian 12Z model is a fail for all of North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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